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To understand the geopolitics of the future, we must stop applying the fossil fuel standards to the emerging world of renewable energy. Indra Overland is convinced and says pv magazine we should demystify the myths surrounding the geopolitics of renewable energies, a subject he examined in one of his academic papers.
Old habits
According to Overland, the current geopolitical debate highlights a tendency to transfer the geopolitical beliefs associated with the world of fossil fuels to a system dominated by renewable energies. People need interesting stories to tell, he says, and the geopolitics of fossil fuels is dynamic and violent. And people are always motivated by intellectual inertia and laziness, he adds – it's easier for a storyteller and a listener to follow a familiar storyline.
Professor Overland, director of the Center for Energy Research at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, predicts that the long-term geopolitical implications of renewable energies are fundamentally different from those associated with the world of fossil fuels.
"Renewable energies are much more evenly distributed and there will be fewer strategic locations and bottlenecks, as well as less unexpected revenue and territorial competition once they dominate." energy system, "he said. "There will just not be so much to fight."
Solar and wind are reliable
Another myth criticized by Overland is the "unreliability" of solar and wind power generation. This assertion has been used to weaken the ability of renewable energy sources to provide a safe and stable power supply due to their intermittent nature.
"If we look at the situation over time, the perception of wind and solar energy as unreliable is gradually weakened and I expect this trend to continue," he said. said Overland. The reliability of solar and wind energy, he said, will depend on the scale of their deployment and the development of storage solutions. "If such supplies are connected to a network that covers a large enough area, great variability can be compensated for," he added. In a previous interview in this series, Overland defined storage as a lever for change in the energy transition. He then returned to this point to emphasize the capacity of energy storage to eliminate the well-entrenched strategic dependencies between countries and regions, as technology is likely to be subject to innovation in the regions. years to come.
The curse of resources
A new type of "resource curse" may occur in the world of clean energy, but Overland believes that renewable energies will be much less associated than fossil fuels with the "paradox of abundance" that dictates countries with the most abundant natural resources to suffer the poorest. economic results. Overland believes that the renewable energy sector may be suffering from problems of shortage of raw materials, but thinks that this will probably concern countries with large quantities of essential materials needed for renewable energies.
"The scarcity and rising prices of commodities are likely to generate innovations reducing the demand for these materials, as well as stimulating the entry of new suppliers and recycling," he said. The professor believes that only the small number of countries with large hydropower resources could end up making big money, and thus be a victim of the resource curse being exploited.
According to Overland, a world powered by renewable energy will not see massive wealth transfers from the majority of countries to a small clique of resource-rich countries – nor the associated consequences of unpredictable prices and oil wars. "Oil and gas are based on the control and extraction of concentrated non-renewable natural resources," said Overland. "Conversely, renewable energy is more like a cross between industry, high technology innovation and agriculture. It's a totally different kind of story.
The professor points out that the scarcity of rare earths is a potential threat, especially for the wind industry, which needs elements of rare earths such as neodymium for its magnets. "It's possible, but rare earths are not so rare," he said. "On the contrary, they are difficult and expensive to extract and so no one could be bothered, with the exception of the Chinese when the demand was not as strong." As demand grows, says Overland, more and more countries and companies will be interested. "And yes, recycling will play a very important role, stimulated by both rising prices and the fact that renewable energies are supported by a wave of environmental awareness."
Unlike coal or burnt oil, many critical materials used for renewable energy production can be recycled without leaving the industrial cycle. "This is a fundamental difference between fossil and renewable energy technologies and another example of how fossil fuels and renewables will lead to different types of geopolitical games," added Overland.
Technology control
As renewable energy resources are abundant and evenly distributed around the world, the focus will be on controlling resources for technology mastery. "China is doing well in the solar energy manufacturing sector, as in most manufacturing sectors. It's really a big force for China, and other countries have a lot to learn from the Chinese, "said Overland.
However, the photovoltaic technology of the future may differ considerably, he added, and it is not certain that the Chinese are leading the innovation. "It will depend on their efforts and their strategic choices, as well as those of other countries," said the professor. "In addition, solar panels can become so cheap that profit margins become low, the big income coming for example from storage. In this case, the big money could go back to the one who has the best storage technology in the future. "
No more gas and oil crises
Increasing volumes of electricity will be traded between neighboring countries and regions, which could reduce conflict.
"It's very different from the oil and gas trade, which is very asymmetrical, with upstream suppliers and downstream buyers and sometimes downstream transit countries," said Overland. In a cross-border electricity grid, trade relations could be more symmetrical and complementary – everyone will depend on each other in a much more intricate way than under the dominance of a few oil tankers with a grip on energy security. "There should be little reason for oil and gas crises in the future if renewables continue to grow as they do now," said Overland.
This energy dependence is evident in Eastern Europe, where relations between Russia and Ukraine are mediocre but where gas continues to flow. "There may be several reasons for this, but perhaps they also understand that a big gas dispute and a cutoff now would just give a boost to renewable energy," said one academic.
Cyber security concerns exaggerated
The potential threat of cyber attacks on renewable energy facilities has been exaggerated, as Overland said in another of his studies. Cybersecurity risks are real, he says, but are by no means specific to renewable energies.
"Almost everything is digitally controlled nowadays, including oil rigs, refineries, pipelines and nuclear power plants – not to mention many things outside the energy sector," he said. declared. The sheer scale of cybersecurity concerns ensures the vigilance of governments and institutions, he added. "That's why I'm talking about cybersecurity concerns as a self-destructive prediction. It's like one of those secret messages from Mission Impossible movies: an important message that will self-destruct imminently. "
In previous interviews in this series, Indra Overland addressed geopolitical issues related to combination of solar and hydraulic energy; China; Russia; Saudi Arabia; storage room; super-grid; and the energetic transition.
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