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Model 3 is hard to beat. Tesla's latest flagship vehicle has dominated the US EV market since its debut in 2017. It has sold more than 190,000 US sales, according to IHS Markit, and has captured 67% of the electric car market in the US last quarter.
This is a first for an electric car manufacturer. Model 3, which received more than 200,000 pre-orders in the two days announced in 2016, beats the classic cars of BMW, Mercedes and Audi. This gives it a strong lead over rivals like the Chevrolet, GM, and Nissan Leaf (on the market since 2010). While these electric vehicles have posted steady sales, Tesla has delivered more 3 models than the flagship GM and Nissan electric vehicles combined.
This gave Tesla's chief executive, Elon Musk, the money injection needed to maintain Tesla's creditworthiness and help it fund its next range of vehicles, the Model Y crossover (essentially a hatchback version of the model 3) to upcoming vans and semi-trucks.
So, did Model 3 win the war for Tesla? Or is it simply responding to the pent-up demand of Tesla fanatics looking for affordable alternatives to its luxury models?
Skeptics say Tesla's low number of shipments earlier this year proves that demand for Model 3 is slowing, making the company's goal of selling 360,000 to 400,000 cars by 2019 even more hard to reach. But Tesla told investors that in July, he was "well placed" for a record third quarter, after overcoming logistical bottlenecks in China and Europe, and strengthened tax incentives in the US with the phasing out of the federal Tesla tax credits.
However, Tesla's ambitions will require more than the possession of the US market. Abroad, the Nissan Leaf remains the most popular electric car in the world. Nissan announced in March a total of 400,000 cumulative sales. It is expected to reach half a million next year. Since 2013, Leaf's annual global sales have averaged 50,000 people, exceeding 85,000 in 2018.
Unlike Tesla, Nissan has manufacturing plants around the world. Three of them, in Japan, England and the United States (Tennessee), produce the Leaf, which makes it possible to modify the hatchback for local markets. To reduce costs, much of the tooling and assembly line exists in shared facilities. The price of the sheet was maintained at 29,990 USD for a standard 2019 model and 11,000 USD for a used model from 2015.
While Tesla displays its style, Nissan owes its success to these low prices and this feature. The dynamics in the global market for electric vehicles resemble the war against smartphones. Apple has seized the high-end market with powerful and expensive iPhones, running its iOS operating system, while Google's Android holds most of the rest. Market shares are sharply divided and international. In the United States, Apple has about 40% of US mobile operating systems. Abroad, Android orders 76%, thanks to its functional appeal and inexpensive (more than 22% from Apple).
Despite Tesla's dream of owning the mass-market electric vehicle market, it may end up owning the premium slot, even with less expensive models en route. Other builders are eager to take over. There are about 40 plug-in electric vehicles installed in the showrooms this year, and we are about to see at least a dozen more electric models arrive at a time when automakers are giving up their factories to the electric transmission.
This would not be the worst case for Tesla. Apple has regularly captured the bulk of profits in the smartphone market (some years, almost all), even as other manufacturers are selling many more phones with extremely thin margins. Tesla, like Apple, could benefit from the fruits of a highly differentiated product and vertical integration in its supply chain.
But David Undercoffler, the editor of Autolist.com, predicts that the transition of Tesla to the sale of consumer vehicles will not be easy. After building his name selling luxury electric vehicles, Tesla will struggle to lower costs. The company has bragged about cutting investment costs, but faces manufacturers with decades of experience in reducing efficiencies (and depreciation of equipment and facilities over long periods of time). of production).
With the rise of competition and lower median prices, the dominance of Model 3 is not as certain as it seemed when it was launched. Tesla is now aiming to sell 400,000 cars this year, many of which to model 3. In the final quarter, the goal was not quite halfway, having sold 158,375 cars in the first half of this year.
"This may not be the case when model 3 exceeds the Leaf, but if," says Undercoffler. This largely depends on whether the demand for Model 3 has peaked and if Model Y is preventing future growth. Nissan does not stay inactive. Its new 226-mile battery (more than 150 km) promises to increase Leaf's sales, while the popularity of the current model has increased. "Model 3 will have some work to do if he hopes to catch the Leaf one day," says Undercoffler.
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