[ad_1]
© Reuters. By Barani Krishnan
Investing.com – Donald Trump fired his national security adviser, John Bolton, but the Houthis may have lit an even bigger chasm under the oil boom – Saudi Arabia.
Saturday's drone strikes that shut down the kingdom's Abqaiq oil processing complex and the Khurais oilfield could impact nearly 5 million barrels a day, or 5 percent of the world's daily supply , if we believe the first reports.
But the first reports are inconclusive. We are ready to meet the thirst of a journalist in a hurry for any detail on a major event before more credible and verified information arrives.
According to early analysis, the strikes could negate the potential for US-Iranian talks and easing sanctions that would bring Tehran's crude back onto the market. Some of this speculation is of course based on the fact that Iran was held responsible for the Saturday strikes by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in a tweet. Houthi rebels, backed by Iran in the Saudi-led battle in Yemen, have claimed responsibility for the attacks, saying there would be more.
Trump, not Pompeo, will decide the application of sanctions against Iran. Nearly 24 hours after the attacks, the president did not tweet his own answer.
Saudi oil facilities shut down and their production could rebound in no time. But what happens to the price of oil is another matter. This is particularly true with the Saudis who are desperately seeking to raise crude prices to boost valuations in the IPO of their public oil company Aramco.
ended the week down nearly 3%, its most significant weekly decline since mid-July. fell 2% over the week, its maximum in five weeks. Expect an important rally Monday in the Saudi newspaper, then to greater volatility, the Iranians having promised to maximize their own production if they obtained an interruption of the sanctions.
As for gold, the big story is the rate reduction and quantitative easing announced on Thursday by the European Central Bank, and what it means for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy at its meeting on 17 September 18th. But if oil becomes popular on Monday, expect gold to also gain in buying safe havens.
Energy balance
Compared with the fanfare generated by the two biggest US brutes fired in late August, the weekly EIA dataset released on Wednesday has hardly made bulls happy.
After the last draw reached 7 million barrels, the WTI peaked at $ 58.29 and the Brent at $ 63.26 in six weeks, the market sank in reaction to Bolton's ousting, the most big hawk of the Trump administration on Iran.
On Thursday, the new Saudi energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, told the alliance of OPEC producers, which includes Russia, that the kingdom would continue to voluntarily comply to the reductions in oil production agreed by the group.
Earlier, in its monthly report on Wednesday, OPEC projected that demand for its own crude oil would average 29.4 million barrels per day in 2020, down 1.2 million barrels per barrel. day compared to this year. US crude has become OPEC's top oil export competitor this year, with steady shipments of 3 million bpd or more in recent weeks.
Prince Abdulaziz, who chaired the OPEC alliance panel, said the production in Riyadh in October would be 9.890 million euros and larger cuts in production would be discussed at the regular meeting. OPEC in November.
In addition to OPEC, the Paris-based International Energy Agency also warned on Thursday against a global glut of oil, pointing out that risk premiums and threats to the world's oil industry are likely to increase. supply were greatly reduced, the tension in the Gulf of the Middle East being quieted and the normalization of the activities of the oil industry.
Upcoming energy calendar
Monday September 16th
Genscape Cushing crude inventory estimates (private data)
Tuesday September 17th
weekly report on oil stocks.
Wednesday, September 18th
Weekly EIA Report on
US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision
Thursday, September 19th
EIA
Friday, September 20th
weekly number of drilling rigs
Review of precious metals
The ECB has done a rate cut as planned, but gold still could not shine last week, the progress perceived in the US-China talks – anyway – have dealt a new blow to the yellow metal .
for the December delivery set at $ 1,499.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 1.1% on the week. This is the third consecutive weekly decline in gold futures and the largest weekly decline since April.
, reflecting bullion trading, also remained below the key level of US $ 1,500. Friday's trading was 1,488.74, down about 1.2% on the week, the worst week since the end of March.
Global economic worries were sidelined during the week after the US and China trade concessions and President Donald Trump's latest statements that he was potentially open to an interim trade deal with China.
"This does not mean that we will have a trade agreement, but perhaps the US and China could postpone the new tariffs and possibly even relax some of the tariffs already in place," said Peter Cardillo, chief economist of the United States. markets at Spartan. Capital Securities in New York, was quoted on Reuters. "It is a hopeful market, a hope for an aesthetic resolution."
On Thursday, gold appeared to rise sharply after the European Central Bank lowered its deposit rate to a historic low of -0.5%, while promising that rates would remain low longer and stating that It would boost bond purchases at a rate of 20 billion euros per month as of 1 November.
The action of the euro area is putting pressure on the US Federal Reserve, which holds its monthly political meeting of 17 and 18 September, to respond with accommodative measures of its kind.
But the idea of improving trade relations between the United States and China, as well as stronger US retail and consumer confidence figures for August, has prevented gold from take another step on Friday. The best economic data, in particular, gives hope for a 50 basis point reduction in Fed rates next week. According to Investing.com, the market still sees 78.5% chance of a quarter point reduction from the US central bank.
"Signing further cuts this year will be the main driver" of gold, said TD Securities in a note on precious metals shared with Investing.com.
"A failure to leave the door open for further easing, and the plot of points showing no increasing calls for 75 bps cuts this year could be considered a disappointment for the yellow metal," said the Canadian bank and its brokerage group.
However, even if disappointments could be disappointing in the near term, the lows should be minimal, added TD Securities. "The underlying economic weakness, the banal leaning of the central bank and the shortage of safe haven assets still suggest that the path of least resistance for gold and friends is higher."
[ad_2]
Source link