How the national title, the Heisman and the conference races changed during the third week

The first three weeks of the 2019 college football season were fun and unpredictable, with high-profile consumer games (LSU in Texas), stunning surprises (Georgia State over Tennessee, The Citadel on Georgia Tech, Kansas on Boston College), wild rivalry games (Iowa at Iowa State) and basically all the instability we love about this sport. Unfortunately, we also found that many major injuries have changed the prognosis of many teams.

The first three weeks as well have done nothing to make us doubt our assumptions of pre-season title. It seems increasingly likely that Alabama and Clemson will play again in the national title game, and most of the other most attractive teams (Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio State) are among the top five in the world or very close .

With such conflicting impressions, it may be worthwhile to take a step back and take stock of what has and has not changed in college football over the past three weeks.

The national title race

Let's start with where things have not changed much.

The ratings for the national titles have remained remarkably similar up to now. Clemson and Alabama are the favorites: the ESPN REIT gave them respectively 84% and 72% of chances to have access to the PCP in pre-season. These probabilities increased to 78% and 75% after three weeks. Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma and Notre Dame started the year with a probability of 29% to 40%, and the four are now between 33% and 39%.

There was however a major change: Michigan and the state of Ohio traded places.

Due to the combination of head coach and quarterback changes, the IPS was low for the Buckeyes as the season approached. It seemed like Michigan's best chance over the ages to overtake its main rival.

Alas. After appearing just decent against Middle Tennessee and very shaky against the Army, the Wolverines fell to 15th place in the FPI, third best of the Big Ten East. Their chances of reaching the playoffs of college football have decreased accordingly, from 41% to 1.4%. Ohio State, meanwhile, has crossed FAU, Cincinnati and Indiana and has climbed into the top five of the FPI. The odds of Buckeyes' title went from 6% to 44%. A rival loses 40 percentage points and the other 38.

Three other teams saw their ratings increase by more than 6%: UCF (from 0.1% to 8.5%), Notre Dame (from 29% to 39%) and Wisconsin (from 0% to 12%), while that the loss of the first week of Oregon to Auburn resulted in the Ducks' rating of 14% to 7.9%.

The heisman race

Tua against Trevor against Tua against Trevor against Tua against Trevor. It was difficult to take anyone too seriously as Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama) and Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) in preparatory discussions with Heisman. Tagovailoa led most of last season's run before finishing second ahead of Kyler Murray of Oklahoma, and after a brilliant performance at CFP, Lawrence, with his first-rate pedigree, seemed ready to make his own route to attribution.

This could of course always happen, but two new candidates emerged early this year.

Current odds of Heisman, by Caesars Sportsbook:
1. QB Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma (+250, compared to +1200 in April)
2. QB Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama (+250, as in April)
3. QB Joe Burrow, LSU (+450, compared to +10000 in April)
QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (+800, instead of +200)
5. QB Sam Ehlinger, Texas (+1000, instead of +2500)
6. QB Justin Fields, State of Ohio (+1200, instead of +1000)
7. RB Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin (+1200, instead of +2000)
8. QB Justin Herbert, Oregon (+1600, instead of +3000)
9. WR Jerry Jeudy, Alabama (+2500, instead of +10000)
10. QB Jake Fromm, Georgia (+2800, instead of +2500)

Hurts, who started in Alabama in 2016-17 before backing Tagovailoa last season, is the latest transfer to Oklahoma. He has burned down Houston, South Dakota and UCLA so far, and has screened more than 14 games. He is expected to accumulate 4,100 passing yards, 1,700 rushing yards and 60 total touchdowns. Yes, the competition will get a little harder, but at least a season of 4,000 / 1,000 is on the table.

Burrow won first place in this week's ESPN Heisman poll. After a late improvement in 2018, he responded brilliantly to LSU's offensive changes during the off-season. Admittedly, two of his three games have been against Georgia Southern and Northwestern State, but his figures here are caricatures: completion rate of 83%, 15 yards per completion, 11 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Until now, in the game of the year (LSU's 45-38 win over Texas), he has collected 471 yards and four goals.

Some names have dropped a bit. Travis Etienne's running back Clemson and quarterback Adrian Martinez of Nebraska were both at the +2000 mark in April; they are now +4000 and +6000, respectively. Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson was +2500 in the spring; now he is barely 15,000.

The quest for six victories

The third week of Kansas State, thwarted by the state of Mississippi, was strong for several reasons. First, it allowed new head coach Chris Klieman to quickly clinch victory and recruit a recruitment chip as he tried to give proof of concept to the culture he was building to replace Bill Snyder. He also claimed that the Wildcats' excellent play in their first two games (against Nicholls State and Bowling Green) was not just the product of bad competition.

The win also meant that K-State would probably have a place to play in the playoffs. SP + now gives the Wildcats an 81% chance to finish with six or more wins in 2019, compared to 33% in pre-season. The parity-rich Big 12, with nine games, will offer plenty of tight games and chances of defeats, but chances are good that Kansas State will get at least three conference wins to reach six in total.

No other sport can match the richness and depth of academic football intrigue. Although there are still many teams involved (technically) in the national title race, there is another huge batch of teams that are just trying to finish .500. Reaching bowl eligibility means a lot in many areas – not only in Manhattan, Kansas, but also in Berkeley, California; Charlotte, North Carolina; Annapolis, Maryland; Winston-Salem, North Carolina; Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, etc. – and here are some of the things that have changed the most in this pursuit.

The teams that improved their chances of eligibility for the bowl, by projecting SP + earnings:

1. Kansas State (up 48%, from 33% to 81%)
2. EMS (up 42%, from 51% to 93%)
3. California (39% increase, from 39% to 78%)
4. Charlotte (up 38%, from 19% to 57%)
5. Navy (up 37%, from 15% to 52%)
6. North Carolina (up 33%, from 26% to 59%)
7. Wake Forest (up 23%, from 73% to 96%)
8. Hawaii (up 23%, 60% to 83%)
9. Louisiana (up 22%, from 66% to 88%)
10. Coastal Carolina (up 22%, from 18% to 40%)

If someone goes up, of course, someone has to go down. Tennessee experienced some frustration in Chattanooga this weekend, but the fourth quarter of the Volunteers collapsed against Georgia State and BYU, then 0-2 to put them in a serious stalemate.

Even with a respectable # 36 ranking in SP + *, the Flights are a projected favorite for only two remaining games (91% win against UAB, 74% against Vanderbilt). They will have to avoid the annoyances there, then shoot three, to get six wins.

The teams that saw the probabilities of eligibility for cuts decrease the most, by projection of gain SP +:

1. Tennessee (down 54%, from 70% to 16%)
2. South Carolina (down 41%, from 67% to 26%)
3. Stanford (41% decrease, from 73% to 32%)
4. USF (down 39%, from 73% to 34%)
5. State of Texas (down 39% from 73% to 34%)
6. Purdue (down 37%, from 61% to 24%)
7. FIU (down 35%, from 90% to 55%)
8. UCLA (down 35%, from 38% to 3%)
9. Buffalo (down 29%, from 71% to 42%)
10. Vanderbilt (down 28%, from 36% to 8%)

* Remember that early season rankings are still mainly based on pre-season forecasts. So it is difficult to fall too early, even when you lose to the south of Alabama.

Imminent disasters

It was safe to think that the first season of Walt Bell as UMass head coach could be difficult. The Minutemen scored 4-8 last year under Mark Whipple, and it was with world wide receiver Andy Isabella.

Early returns indicate that it will be even more difficult than expected. The Minutemen took a 21-7 lead over Rutgers in the opening game of the season, but they have not only been outclassed by 138-37, but 138-37 by Rutgers, Southern Illinois and Charlotte. They are now 129th in the SP + group and are gaining ground, so to speak, on the 130th UTEP. There are always opportunities to win at the time – namely, home games against No. 126 Akron and No. 124 UConn at home – but if they go 1-1, they could aim a total of 1-11.

Teams with the best (worst?) Chances of finishing with a win or less, by SP +:

1. Rice (40%, against 29% in pre-season)
2. UMass (40%, up 6%)
3. Akron (28%, up 8%)
4. UConn (16%, down 22%)
5. State of Oregon (14%, up 8%)
6. South Alabama (13%, down 18%)
7. UTEP (13%, down 18%)
8. Rutgers (12%, down 19%)
9. UCLA (11%, up 1%)
10. Bowling Green (10%, same as pre-season)

There is of course another name of interest on this list. UCLA was smoked by Oklahoma at home Saturday, falling to 0-3 with a No. 78 SP + ranking. The Bruins started the second season of Chip Kelly with a 38% chance of being eligible for the bowl and a 1% chance of being eliminated with zero or one win. Now, these probabilities are respectively 3% and 11%. This is probably not what the school or Kelly had in mind.

Conference Races

Based on the average number of conferences SP + has planned, here are the teams that are currently one win away from the number of participants scheduled for the conference:

AAC

• East: UCF (6.8)
• West: Memphis (6.3)

UCF has 1.9 victory over Cincinnati and Temple and Memphis has two wins over SMU. These were the favorites to start the season and their projected margins grew (UCF was up 1.1 pre-season projections, Memphis was up 1.6). Countries such as SMU and Tulane have intrigued, but they still have a long way to go.

ACC

• Atlantic: Clemson (7.7)
• Coastal: Virginia (5.9), Miami (5.0)

Clemson's projected advance also increased from 3.3 in Florida to second in pre-season to 3.4 on NC State. It would take at least some surprises to make it a race.

The coastal race has rocked a little. The unexpected defeat of Miami, pre-season favorite against North Carolina, has canceled its total of projected wins. Ranked 31st overall, Virginia was slightly ahead of expectations and up. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, was projected 32nd with 4.9 conference wins in pre-season; After three weeks, the Hokies are in 40th place with 3.9 wins.

Big 12

Of course, there is no Big 12 division, but here are the teams projected between the first and second places.

• First place: Oklahoma (7.6)
• Second place: Oklahoma State (5.6), TCU (5.1), Baylor (5.1), Texas (5.1).

The best team in the conference is and has always been obvious, but the battle for second place remains as blurry as it was three weeks ago. SP + continues to be more popular with OSU, but with four teams ranked between the 20th and 29th (and three more between the 35th and 49th), the race for second place in the Big 12 will remain exciting for a while.

Big Ten

• East: State of Ohio (7.5)
• West: Wisconsin (7.1)

Well, these races were supposed to be exciting. The East (Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State) and the West (Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa) started the season with three teams on a projected victory. But the recent struggles of Michigan and Penn State, combined with the dominance of OSU, have clearly given us the taste of the East. And the incredibly dominant start to Wisconsin – against mediocre competition, yes – and the simple average performances of Nebraska and Minnesota have extended things to the West. The Iowa (5.5 wins) persists though.

USA Conference

• East: Marshall (6.0), FAU (5.3)
• West: Southern Miss (6.0), North Texas (5.9), Louisiana Tech (5.2).

The early under-performance of the FIU has simplified the race in the East, but the West is still not at the rendezvous. In terms of average SP + score, this remains the worst FBS conference. But he could have the best race in the title.

MAC

• East: Ohio (5.6), Miami (Ohio) (4.8)
• West: Toledo (5.7), WMU (5.2), EMU (5.0), NIU (4.8).

If Conference USA does not have the most wonderfully messy conference run, it's the MAC. The hierarchy of conference wins has not really changed since the start of the season, and we may have some very strong MACtion games in the future.

West Mountain

• Mountain: State of Boise (6.6), State of Utah (5.8)
• West: State of Fresno (5.5), State of San Diego (5.3)

The state of Utah ranked 34th in SP +, bridging the gap with Boise. In the West, they are the same teams as during the pre-season. The state of Fresno will travel to San Diego on November 15 and the state of Boise to Utah on November 23.

Pac-12

• North: Washington (6.8), Oregon (6.5)
• South: Utah (6.6)

Washington's defeat at Cal has greatly narrowed the gap between the two cities and Oregon's visit to Seattle on October 19 is of great significance. (The state of Washington, with 5.5 wins, is not so far behind.) In the South, the USC has allowed Utah to extend its advantage from 1 , 2 win in pre-season at 1.6. A Ute victory against USC this weekend would be pretty close to the division, unless crazy developments at the end of the season.

SECOND

• East: Georgia (6.5)
• West: Alabama (6.9)

The landscape of the SEC has not changed, but the gaps have not widened, at least. Alabama took advantage of a 1.4 victory over LSU in pre-season, but is now down to 1.2. In the East Georgia has a lead of 1.2 to 1.5 (thanks to Georgia's and LSU's best scores), but the Dawgs maintain a lead of 1.2 wins over Missouri; which attracts the two worst teams in the West (Ole Miss and Arkansas). in interdivision game.

Sun belt

• East: Appalachian State (7.0)
• West: Arkansas State (5.7), UL-Lafayette (4.7).

App State remains the East class – the anticipated advance by the Mountaineers has gone from 2.0 to 2.2 victories up to now – but the West Race s & # 39; Is narrowed. Arkansas State remains the favorite, but Louisiana went from 1.9 to 1.0. The Red Wolves and Ragin & Cajuns play at Lafayette on Thursday night in the eighth week.