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The second data point is always more interesting than the first one.
If a player's week 2 statistics line does not match his week 1 out, understand why is integral. Rookies T.J. Hockenson and Josh Jacobs went from big starts to quieter performances in the second week. Where are their expectations for the rest of the season?
When the second week will be replaced by the first week, we could very well see the beginning of a trend: Lamar Jackson should be near the top of the ranking every quarterback of the season. But this is not guaranteed, as we still have only a very small sample – TY Hilton and Derrick Henry each saved their Week 1 performance at two touchdowns with another at Week 2, but the pace of their offenses adds a layer of worry.
We also had injuries, including serious injuries in two quarters of the franchise and former Super Bowl champions, which not only counted for those named Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger, but also for the talent of the players on both sides. fouls.
There are a lot of things to sort out, so let's go through each part. For week 2, I will refer to the article of week 1 in a liberal way. This is not meant to be a victory round or a conviction, but a point of reference that will allow us to cover more ground rather than repeating points.
The data is usually provided by Pro Football Reference, RotoViz, RotoGrinders Premium Usage Application, airyards.com. Do not hesitate to contact me on Twitter at @YardsPerGretch if you have any questions about anything that I have covered or to share my thoughts on something that I have occulted. This is one of my favorite reactions because it is often something that has escaped me. Congratulations to the fans who noted the injury of Rashard Higgins and the fumble of Devonta Freeman which cost him some shots during the first week.
Here are some important statistical acronyms for Stealing Signals:
Green Zone – Inside the 10-meter line of the opponent.
HVT – Keys of great value: for halves, all receptions and retouches inside the 10 meter line.
TRAP – Percentage of attempt at ordinary precipitation: for the halves, the percentage of all the contacts that are not contacts of great value. In the last five seasons, 75.1% of touchdowns have not had a high value. When an individual player has a higher rate than this one, his workload is hollow; lower indicates a better chance of success in Fantasy.
WOPR – Weighted opportunity odds: a metric created by Josh Hermsmeyer, it establishes a balance between the target team share and the share of aircrafts team. Because the WOPR of a player is a part of the overall opportunity of his team, it is important to consider the volume of the team as an additional context.
RACR – Air Conversion Ratio of the Receiver: Also created by Hermsmeyer, the RACR is calculated by dividing the total number of receiving yards by the total number of air yards. Similar to receiving yards or yards per target, but per fleet.
Week 2
Week 2
Buccaneers 20 – Panthers 14
Thursday Night Football had a few stars, but many more failures. While the over / under fell before the kickoff Thursday, it still closed at 48 points. Six field goals were two touchdowns less than that number.
Let's start with the Buccaneers' passing game, where Mike Evans and O.J. Howard were moderate and disappointing, but Chris Godwin still looked like a star in the Bruce Arians slots role. There is not much to say about Godwin, who converts a significant amount of opportunities into scores in Fantasy over the course of two weeks.
Evans is not, but he has also entered the season with an illness that is hard to imagine that he was completely finished for a short week. More specifically, Evans has seen a good volume and has just been ineffective. In two weeks, Evans and Godwin have almost identical WOPRs, with Godwin having the highest target share, but Evans seeing a lot more overhead yards. That's basically what we expected. the difference in production is simply the efficiency.
The RACR of Evans over two weeks is 0.38, which means that it converts 38% of its aerodromes into receiving yards. His career RACR is 0.57, and he has never been less than 0.5 in one season. So for two weeks, the volume is there, but it has already been at least 30 or 40 yards gaining its typical efficiency. He also failed to find the end zone, despite a near-miss when he was targeted in the second week. He will be fine if he gets better.
O.J. Howard is a greater concern. Howard saw no target in the 2nd week, although he had a capture canceled by a dubious offensive pass interference. Interestingly, Howard's role expanded in week two. In week 1, Howard had completed a run on only 55 percent of Jameis Winston's stranded vehicles, but was 69 percent behind. During this time, Cameron Brate was 48% at Week 1. but fell to 31% during Week 2.
Howard is not one to lose because in the last 10 games he had a draw and a game and still finished in the top six in PPR points and non-PPR per game. Even with Brate involved, Howard should still have some splash efficiency games.
Howard simply has not seen many adverse goals yet, as his ADOT in 2017 and 2018 was good in double digits, but his ADOT early in the season in 2019 is at 5.8. A brief conclusion to Cameron Brate on the first game after two minutes of warning from the first half is a great example of the goals that were not there.
The defense had only one high security and it appeared away from Howard's road, which could have meant a 25-yard touchdown. Winston chooses to shoot the ball to Brate below to convert the first one. The key, Howard, continues to follow the downstream routes that has made it so effective on limited volumes so far in his career.
Peyton Barber certainly looked very promising on a few games, averaging between 12 and 16 yards on three of his runs, including his touchdown run. He had only one touch of great value on 24 keys in total, and even with these splash games, he kept an average of 3.6 yards per run. Ronald Jones seems to be buried again; he saw only four rush attempts and barely played. Dare Ogunbowale played again in the third try. Barber will not accumulate more than 20 staves most weeks and has no role as a smuggler or as a big player. It is therefore not recommended to play in the future. Jones is back to retirement until we see him on the field, but that 's not an automatic abandonment just because he had an exciting week 1 and that' s it. he did not have a lot of action during week 2 after being informed. You did not call him to be a huge contributor September.
On the side of the Panthers, there is something to worry about Cam Newton. First, Newton does not rush, which greatly hinders his Fantasy ceiling. Secondly, although Newton certainly had the speed on several shots, his accuracy does not seem to be there. It's unclear if this is related to his shoulder operation during the off season, but Newton has certainly had some bad precision games in the past and was able to bounce back. So we hope that will happen here. His completion rate of 48% is well below any season of his career and especially at his mark of 68% last season.
One of the positives was that Newton was ready to push the ball a lot more often during the second week (which probably also explains his accuracy problems because it is more difficult throws). The throwing depth was helpful for Curtis Samuel, who saw 13 targets and a whopping 234 yards (18.0 aDOT), more than any other player of the week. also saw a big volume, catch nine of 14 targets for 89 yards. His targets are more like possession, at a value of 8.5.
Both could have been a bit more productive if Newton was a little more precise. Both receivers seem locked in big roles, just like Greg Olsen, who led the team to receive with a line of 9-6-110 despite a questionable tag.
Christian McCaffrey was still playing his usual catch, but the Panthers seemed to want to get rid of, which may be logical considering that it was only week 2 and he had 29 touches during the first week. win this game in other ways; I expect it to be one of the lowest Fantasy releases of McCaffrey's season.
- Signal: Cam Newton – lack of precipitation; Mike Evans – a lot of airfields; D.J. Moore / Curtis Samuel – Big Roles
- Noise: Cam Newton – 51 password attempts; Christian McCaffrey – 2 receptions; O.J. Howard – 0 receptions; Peyton Barber – 24 keys (related to the scenario)
Week 2
Ravens 23 – Cardinals 17
- Instant notes: Marquise Brown – 65% (+ 47%), Mark Ingram – 58% (+ 26%), Gus Edwards – 20% (-18%), Justice Hill – 20% (-10%), Damiere Byrd – 93% ( + 5%), KeeSean Johnson – 32% (-44%), Michael Crabtree – 32% (+ 32%), David Johnson – 60% (-26%), Chase Edmonds – 40% (+ 29%)
- Key stat: Marquise Brown – 37 routes (84% backtracking)
The Ravens and Cardinals were not disappointed in the second week. We will start with Lamar Jackson, who confirmed his strong smuggling performance during the first week with another very effective outing, but also cleared his legs after only six yards on the ground in the first week. Jackson has won 120 rushing yards in 16 races, and the ability to score 12 Fantasy points before even considering pass statistics is exactly what makes him a cheat code for Fantasy. As I said in the intro, he is a quarterback of the top three fantasy players.
Marquise Brown's huge production on limited snapshots was an important data point for week 1, but is now completely obscured. Brown traveled 37 routes and scored 13 targets and 149 yards, making it the sixth best result of Week 2. He is a must in Week 3 against the Chiefs.
The other wide receivers are less notable both because the team has turned and Jackson has maintained his preference for the tightest position, targeting Mark Andrews nine times for an 8-112-1 line and making four more passes. to Nick Boyle and Hayden Hurst. Hurst being the recipient of Jackson's second touchdown pass. It is very clear that Andrews and Brown are the pass captors to have here; no other Raven had more than three goals in Week 2, and after two weeks, Brown became the team leader with 18-year-old Andrews with 17 and no one with more than six.
Mark Ingram is hurt and has not played a whole series of shots, which is all the more remarkable as his share of snap has increased dramatically. The lack of RB goals continues to be a problem, and although Ingram has been effective with both chances and posted a reception line of 2 to 30, two goals are not enough to post big Fantasy weeks in the modern NFL, especially when your quarterback could be eliminated. -all carry as Jackson did during the second week. Ingram is still a sale for me considering a disappointing production even with the rolling offense. Justice Hill is worth considering as even though his snapshots have dwindled, they have not plummeted as much as Gus Edwards', and he is still the most talented replacement.
While Jackson was great, Kyler Murray was not far away. Playing on the road against a formidable defense of the Ravens, Murray was very effective as a passer, especially at the beginning. Murray's lack of production after two games is a bit odd since he ran over 1,000 yards in college, but his potential is not that different from Jackson's if precipitation is materializing given He's racked up for 349 yards in a road match in Baltimore. He's a good guy to target if you can buy him since he did not produce any touch in the second week.
One of the main reasons for this was that Kliff Kingsbury did not want to go fourth in the 5-yard line three times. Hopefully he learns from it because it was not great for Fantasy.
The passing game was more concentrated in the second week and as we could expect. Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk dominated the targets and the airfields and both totaled 100 yards. We talked about the high rate of four-band sets last week and the week 2 that went on, although the playing time was off. Damiere Byrd was clearly No. 3, with 93% of the shots, while KeeSean Johnson yielded a considerable number of shots to Michael Crabtree as the two parted from the fourth wide catcher role. If you added Johnson in deeper leagues last week, like me, he fell to the water, but that's a situation to watch considering the number of shots and routes available for broad receivers in this offense in general.
David Johnson suffered a surgically repaired wrist injury that interrupted his 2017 season, and the team was naturally cautious. Johnson came back and scored a touchdown shortly after the injury, but Chase Edmonds played 40% of the title last week, after only 11%. The Cardinals were in a very heavy scenario and totaled only eight races back, Johnson taking seven. Johnson also had only one shot, but that may be expected given the injury to his wrist.
I'm not too concerned about Johnson's use or lack of distance in this one, and I'm glad he came out without major injury. It will be something to watch in the next few days.
- Signal: Marquise Brown – full time player; Kyler Murray – Great pass efficiency in a difficult duel on the road (mitigate the lack of landing)
- Noise: David Johnson – lack of keys, production (injury, difficult match)
Week 2
Colts 19 – Titans 17
- Snap Notes: Deon Cain – 46% (+ 29%), Zach Pascal – 44% (+ 7%), Chester Rogers – 40% (+ 0%), Parris Campbell – 25% (-4%), Derrick Henry – 50% ( -11%), Dion Lewis – 50% (+ 9%)
- Key statistics: Marlon Mack – 95.7% TRAP; Derrick Henry – 83.8% TRAP (historical average – 75.1%)
Offensively, Colts and Titans have a lot of similarities right now. Last week, we explained how the Colts remained faithful to the race, even in a negative scenario. In two weeks, both teams are among the heaviest in the league in neutral situations.
This posed a problem for many of the passing game options of this one. Jacoby Brissett threw three touchdowns for the Colts, which helped some of the Fantasy totals on their side. Eric Ebron scored on a shoveled pass in the first shot, set up by a long defensive interference shot by Deon Cain. Ebron continues to be a weapon in the touchdown-dependent red zone that can be started precisely.
Last week, we mentioned the possible presence of several receivers behind T.Y. Hilton with Devin Funchess released and all four still played moderate snaps, although it's nice to see Cain have that deep look. Parris Campbell scored but made runs on only 31% of the returns, while Cain was second on the team, with 60% flying returns, but was only officially targeted once and did not have a catch.
It is possible that the offensive will open a bit, as Brissett certainly looks better than in 2017, as we expected. But considering the slow pace of the offensive right now, the secondary options are not very interesting. Brissett has only 336 passing yards with two games, despite the fact that the Colts are lagging behind for a significant share of both.
Hilton is not immune to these offensive concerns, and it took a late touchdown to release a 6-4-43-1 line. He now has three scores in two games and although I do not give in to anything, I would like to trade him in leagues where my opponents overvalue the touchdowns.
Tennessee has similar concerns and almost as many options in the passing game. Corey Davis played better and grabbed a pass inside the 5 which allowed Derrick Henry to score a touchdown, but the total absence of passes meant a mediocre line in 5-3-38. He was the only Titan player to have played more than 60% of the shots or to run a course on more than two thirds of the returns, but he unfortunately fell to the water in shallower formats.
ONE J. Brown went 5-3-25 and still looks like a star in the making, but he ran only 49% of the returns. Volume is the major red flag on his profile. Adam Humphries caught two short passes and attempted a hasty pass for a total of zero yards. The three recipients were behind Delanie Walker in the production and goals of Week 2. Walker looks healthy and, among those who get the Tennessee passes, he is the one I am most willing to line up, but the Titans have only made 52 passes in two weeks and have too many options for one of them to be considered a regular Fantasy producer. . This does not help that an eligible tackle took a touchdown in the second week.
Race situations are also very similar for both teams. The two halves are not as involved in the passing game as we would like to see, but they have all the potential to show strong peak efficiency and a ground score every week. Unfortunately, this does not create a fantastic monster benefit.
It was good to see Marlon Mack follow 51% of Brissett's vehicles and be targeted three times, his first three of the year. But his play dropped slightly as Jordan Wilkins merged, and Wilkins scored a 55-yard run and finished with 82 yards rushing in just five races compared to Mack's 51-yard pass, so it would not be surprising to see Wilkins accumulate points. another handful of opportunities next week.
Derrick Henry has also been targeted three times, but he had a bad fall early in the game and Dion Lewis ran more than double the number of routes Henry took, which raised the score to 50/50. One of Henry's other goals appeared on a screen designed. That's how he escaped for a long touch reception during the first week. But as there are not many courses, these goals may dry up quickly and five to two games are not what is lacking. we would like to see it anyway.
All in all, Mack only has two important touches on an impressive 47 points in two games. Henry has only six high value touchdowns out of 37, and he has now scored three of them, which is a classic outperformance of the true value of his role. Although we know that both players can hit homers at home, they will have bad games if things do not change (Mack did it in Week 2).
- Signal: Colts / Titans – run-first offenses; Marlon Mack / Derrick Henry – TRAPy Workloads; Colts / Titans – many reception options, not enough volume to go around
- Noise: Derrick Henry / T.Y. Hilton – three touchdowns each through two games (not totally noisy, but creates a potential high sales situation)
Week 2
Bills 28 – Giants 14
- Snap Notes: John Brown – 79% (-6%), Frank Gore – 59% (+ 30%), Devin Singletary – 33% (-35%), Saquon Barkley – 87% (+ 8%), Evan Engram – 79% ( + 3%), Cody Latimer – 57% (-31%)
- Key stat: John Brown – 8 targets, 110 yards overhead
It's the second week and I'm already falling on games that I would like to be able to jump. Let's do this quickly.
John Brown posted a solid 8-7-72 lineup, but it's the incomplete target that makes the whole story. Brown was behind the defense and should have had a long touchdown, but Josh Allen overturned him. It will clearly continue to have a lot of goals, and it is certainly positive that it still displays a respectable line (with good overall efficiency) despite Allen 's inconsistency.
Apart from this throw, Allen played very well. He scored on a try, and Cam Newton's competitions were all on Twitter. This is not the worst competition in the world, especially since Allen now has 10 touchdowns in 14 career games, a rate that we have never really seen at Newton among the quarterbacks of the league.
Zay Jones played more in the second week and Cole Beasley played a little less, although Beasley dominated the team by receiving the distance with 83 on four targets, thanks to a 51-yard play. Isaiah McKenzie and Robert Foster also ran. Rookies Dawson Knox and Tommy Sweeney play alongside veteran Tyler Kroft. Look, you do not play any of these guys. John Brown is the only gaming option here.
Devin Singletary looked really good, with 57 yards rushing and a scoring of only six spans, but Frank Gore was very involved throughout the match because we can not have beautiful things. Singletary also mentioned a hamstring problem in the fourth quarter. Never mind that Frank Gore rushed 19 times for 68 yards and one goal and also caught two passes. I will turn around and finish your precious little outing before pleading for the departure of a 36 year old runner. If Singletary is absent and you are in a desperate situation, go get T.J. Yeldon. In any case, he would be more likely to catch passes.
If it seems that I have disdain for the bills, I certainly have more for the Giants. At least they went out and ran the ball five times in a row during their first training session; Saquon Barkley was 4-55-1 with 12:36 to run in the first quarter. After two out of three outings, Eli Manning earned his first double in the team's fourth training session. They played four pieces on this record but managed a first!
Of course, all smugglers were injured or suspended. Bennie Fowler led the team with 10 targets, followed by Evan Engram with eight goals and Barkley with seven goals, although sources that do not count impossible passes will give less to Barkley. Eli has scored at least one at Barkley's feet and another has fallen to the line, which I saw. Barkley has made more than 100 rushing yards, but his total of 107 is a little disappointing after the quick start. He has to do a lot to gain efficiency because he has up to now five positions of negation. being targeted behind the line of scrimmage harms its ability to publish a solid reception distance. His seven receptions in two games are also well below the average of 5.7 points per game last year.
Engram caught six balls for 48 yards. Although we expect a lot of targets and maybe more production, this should feel pretty good considering the team's situation.
Pat Shurmur – Please, just start Daniel Jones so that this offense has a chance to make a living.
- Signal: John Brown – viable receiving option (and possibly skill position) on invoices
- Noise: Bennie Fowler – 10 targets (someone had to get them with all the missing players)
Week 2
49ers 41 – Bengals 17
- Snap Notes: Dante Pettis – 49% (+ 46%), Raheem Mostert – 47% (+ 17%), Matt Breida – 29% (-14%), Jeff Wilson – 21% (+ 21%), CJ Uzomah – 60% ( -11%), Tyler Eifert – 27% (-22%), sample taken – 27% (+ 23%)
- Key stat: Deebo Samuel – 7 targets, 2 attempts to launch in just 29 attempts
From Fantasy's point of view, this game was dominated by Kyle Shanahan, whose system is known to produce runner numbers from another world and did not disappoint here. Unfortunately for Fantasy, these numbers were divided between three players.
Despite what the stocks say – they must always be taken with a grain of salt in the rashes – Matt Breida was in the lead, and looked very good on the ground with 121 yards on 12 runs, including a remarkable 32-yard win, he seemed to create from nothing.
But he also received a touch of great value, a reception on his only target, while Raheem Mostert had four and Jeff Wilson, three HVT. Mostert scored three receptions and a carry-over from the three-yard line, while Wilson did not record a shot, but scored twice inside 10 goals scored twice.
But part of this rotation is due to the record result: Breida did not score in the fourth quarter, while seven of Wilson's 10 hits were recorded late in the period and Mostert played throughout. Wilson conceded two assists in the second quarter, finishing the round when Breida made the big game just mentioned. Maybe it was to give Breida a break or an indication of the specific use of the red zone. Wilson's second score came after Breida had definitely left the match.
Mostert traveled 14 routes to Breida's seven roads, getting a 39-yard touchdown in the first quarter. In total, the three backs combined for 35 races, four receptions, 315 total yards and three touchdowns. In the future, I would expect Breida to lead a committee with Mostert, who may see more passing work.
George Kittle was less active in passing play during the second week, but he is still very effective, catching the three targets he's seen for 54 yards. Remember that he had two touchdowns back in week 1. There's nothing to worry about there, but it opened up targets for Dant … haha , no. Dante Pettis threw a pass but was not targeted, although he played more snaps this week!
It was Deebo Samuel and Marquise Goodwin who started and who were the most productive receivers. Goodwin scored an early touchdown and finished with a 3-77-1 line on three targets, while Samuel was the climax, capturing five of the seven targets for 87 yards and a score. He also had two rushing attempts and was very involved, the 49ers having not had to throw a ton and seeming to run the players when the game went out of control – only Kittle managed a share of more than 51 %. This is an excellent waiver target that could go a little under the radar.
For the Bengals, it was not a big match. We knew that Joe Mixon was not in good health and his line of statistics showed him. He had six assists with three receptions and three consecutive rush attempts on the 5, 3 and 1 yard lines, but failed to score.
Tyler Boyd continued to show his good intentions with a line of 10-10-122, while John Ross was rather quiet, with the exception of a good catch-and-run on a short slope that 39, he managed to turn into a 34-yard gain. . until that He also added a touchdown 66 yards with less than a minute, again starting. Ross a récolté 112 verges sur quatre attrapés, dont 88 après le rattrapage.
Si vous craignez que Ross ne puisse pas maintenir son taux de touché ridicule, considérez que ses statistiques universitaires n'étaient pas très différentes de ce qu'il a fait au niveau de la NFL jusqu'à présent.
Ross va certainement régresser à partir de ses deux premières lignes de statistiques, mais il est un pari solide pour continuer à jouer tout au long de l’année, maintenant qu’il est un joueur à corps perdu et qu’il joue clairement un rôle important dans l’offensive.
Tyler Eifert a aussi marqué, mais C.J. Uzomah a encore dominé la position. La recrue Drew Sample a eu un peu de temps de jeu, bien que ses deux attrapés soient arrivés tard au quatrième quart. Malgré tout, Eifert est principalement un joueur à temps partiel et non une option de Fantasy, malgré une utilisation probablement lourde de la zone rouge.
Andy Dalton, quant à lui, est une option de Fantasy. Le score de Ross en fin de journée a certainement contribué à faire de son mieux, mais avec les armes qu'il a autour de lui, il est facilement sur le radar en streaming.
- Signal: Deebo Samuel – 49ers WR à cibler; Matt Breida – ramener; Raheem Mostert – en redistribution; Jeff Wilson – a principalement joué dans le temps perdu, mais a peut-être un rôle dans la zone rouge
- Bruit: Tyler Eifert – a marqué un touché (n'a exécuté une route que sur 23% des dépotoirs); Joe Mixon – ajoute au moins une partie de sa mauvaise réputation à sa blessure
Semaine 2
Seahawks 28 – Steelers 26
- Snap Notes: D.K. Metcalf – 89% (+ 11%), Chris Carson – 54% (-22%), Rashaad Penny – 33% (+ 6%), CJ Prosise – 13% (+ 13%), Will Dissly – 59% (+ 8%), James Washington – 60% (+ 8%), Diontae Johnson – 47% (+ 11%), Donte Moncrief – 32% (-58%), Vance McDonald – 91% (+ 19%)
- Stat clé: Tyler Lockett – 12 cibles, 6.8 aDOT
La grande nouvelle ici est évidemment la blessure de Roethlisberger, car il prêt à subir une intervention chirurgicale et rater le reste de la saison. James Conner a également été blessé, mais cela ne semble pas grave. Sans Roethlisberger, tous les adversaires des Steelers subissent un coup dur, du moins en termes de valeur actuelle.
Mason Rudolph prendra le relais et Rudolph a bien joué à la fois lors de la deuxième semaine et de la pré-saison, lorsqu'il a complété 65,1% de ses 43 tentatives de passe pour un impressionnant résultat de 8,3 verges par tentative (368 verges au total) et quatre touchés avec une interception. . Il a montré une forte connexion avec son ancien coéquipier de l’État d’Oklahoma, James Washington, et leur connexion fait de Washington une option de renonciation très intéressante.
Washington n’a attrapé que deux des trois cibles pour 23 verges au cours de la semaine 2, mais il a joué plus de coups francs puisque Donte Moncrief est complètement tombé en disgrâce. En raison d'une semaine 1 très pauvre, Moncrief est passé de routes sur 90% de retours en 1 à 31% à 2 semaines, et devrait être coupé dans la plupart des ligues. Washington et la recrue Diontae Johnson étaient les n ° 2 et 3 de la deuxième semaine. En dehors de son passé avec Rudolph, Washington est particulièrement intriguant en raison de son rôle profond qui a été le troisième plus grand nombre de chantiers navals de la NFL au cours de la première semaine. Johnson est plus d’un type à la liste de surveillance et d’ajouter des formats plus profonds, mais a aussi un potentiel étant donné le peu de menaces reçues sur cette infraction.
JuJu Smith-Schuster est évidemment le n ° 1 et a eu une autre journée bien remplie, mais bien sûr, la blessure de Roethlisberger n'a pas aidé. JuJu a mis un peu de temps à jouer en première période alors que Roethlisberger était toujours dans le match, mais il avait deux cibles et un attrapé annulé par pénalité et a également attrapé une cible de la zone des buts en dehors des limites, ce qui fait qu'il n'est pas invisible. Il a terminé avec une ligne 8-5-84, mais subira un coup assez important si les Steelers ont tendance à courir plus vite sans Roethlisberger. Une des principales raisons d'aimer JuJu cette année était son plafond d'objectif astronomique dans une attaque pass-happy. Pourtant, JuJu peut rester dans le jeu et il ne va pas disparaître.
Les Steelers ont lancé beaucoup dans la deuxième moitié de la deuxième semaine, mais étaient en fuite et ont également perdu Conner. Il sera intéressant de suivre l'évolution de l'offensive sans Roethlisberger, mais en général, les entraîneurs sont plus conservateurs avec les jeunes quarts.
Vance McDonald a joué plus de clichés lors de la deuxième semaine et a porté ses fruits avec deux touchés – tous deux de Rudolph – sur sept cibles. Il faudra attendre et voir le statut de blessure de Conner, mais il devrait faire face à une lourde charge de travail en bonne santé compte tenu du changement de quarterback. Jaylen Samuels semblait très bon en relief de Conner et devrait être la propriété de toutes les ligues. Benny Snell a également réussi une belle course, mais n'a joué que deux clichés en deux semaines. Samuels ressemble à la menotte claire à cibler.
Tyler Lockett a vu 12 cibles et notamment à un ADOT de seulement 6,8. C'est un excellent signe de sa valeur après seulement deux objectifs dans la première semaine, en particulier parce que, pour qu'il franchisse un bond en avant cette année, il avait besoin de voir plus de passes courtes et intermédiaires. C'est ce que tout son jeu a été dans la semaine 2; à titre de comparaison, son ADD 2018 était de 13,6 et ses deux cibles lors de la première semaine étaient toutes les deux basses, ce qui a donné un score de 34,0 aDOT. Ces plans profonds seront toujours là pour Lockett, mais nous avons maintenant la confirmation qu'il peut également accumuler des cibles à courte distance.
D.K. Metcalf a marqué son premier touché en carrière et a vu sept cibles et 113 compteurs aériens. Metcalf et Lockett ont toutes les deux parcouru des routes sur 98% des véhicules de dépotoir de Russell Wilson, et sont clairement les deux principales options de réception dans cette infraction. Will Dissly a marqué deux fois, mais Nick Vannett et lui se sont séparés. Il est mal parti pour un bon début en 2018 avant une blessure au genou mettant fin à la saison. C'est certainement une option plus serrée pour les extrémités serrées, mais il est à noter qu'il divise les représentants.
Chris Carson a perdu deux autres échappés après en avoir perdu un au cours de la première semaine. Bien que les Seahawks semblent vraiment l'apprécier et qu'il veuille qu'il soit le mec, ils ont agi. La part de capture de Carson était inférieure de 22 points de pourcentage à la semaine 2 par rapport à la semaine 1 et étant donné que Rashaad Penny a répondu à la sonnette par un touché de 37 verges, il est possible que nous assistions à une division accrue.
Il est particulièrement intéressant de noter que Carson n'a parcouru que 41% des retours après 71% au cours de la première semaine. Penny est sorti sur 12 routes menant à Carson 17, tandis que C.J. Prosise a également participé au jeu de passe, parcourant six routes.
- Signal: Tyler Lockett – pas seulement une menace profonde; Chris Carson — fumblitis, lose some playing time; Donte Moncrief — lost significant playing time
- Noise: Pittsburgh — pass-heavy offense we've seen with Ben Roethlisberger over the past few seasons (we just don't know what to expect)
Semaine 2
Texans 13 – Jaguars 12
- Snap Notes: Carlos Hyde – 61% (+25%), Duke Johnson – 39% (-25%), Will Fuller – 91% (-6%), Keke Coutee – 44% (+44%), Kenny Stills – 38% (-4%), Leonard Fournette – 97% (+11%), Dede Westbrook – 87% (+4%), Chris Conley – 85% (+9%), D.J. Chark – 82% (+11%)
- Key Stat: Houston – 263 total yards
Houston and Jacksonville became an entertaining game late, but for the first three quarters it was remarkably dull. The Jaguars did a good job limiting Deshaun Watson and the Texans passing game, and Houston was content leaning on Carlos Hyde. On the other side, Gardner Minshew wasn't able to get anything going until late. He threw for 122 of his 213 passing yards in the fourth quarter.
Hyde was the big story in that he stole 25 percentage points of snap share from Duke Johnson relative to their Week 1 split. He carried the ball 20 times and definitely looks solid in Houston's system. Still, as I'll say with a lot of backfields, one back performing well doesn't have to mean the other back isn't; I've seen commentary that Hyde has outplayed Duke, but that's largely an opportunity thing, because Duke's 5.9 YPC on 15 carries is right in line with Hyde's 5.8 YPC on 30. Hyde of course gets more credit for doing it over a larger sample, but the point is Duke isn't exactly playing poorly.
What was a bad sign for Johnson was the return of Keke Coutee, and it's a safe bet the four targets Coutee got in the short area of the field contributed to Duke seeing just one on the day. Of course, Watson threw just 29 times and for just 159 yards, so this wasn't a good day offensively overall.
As for Hyde, he did notably get a carry from the 3-yard line, although he didn't score and wasn't targeted. Thus, he posted just the 9.0 Fantasy points from his rushing yardage. That's what 20 touches — efficient ones, even! — looks like when just one of them is a HVT, and it's not nearly as good for Fantasy as it seems like it should be when you watch the game. If nine Fantasy points is the output from what was undeniably a good outcome on the field, that's a TRAP back, and not the type of player you want to actively target for Fantasy Football.
Bill O'Brien said Kenny Stills would play more in Week 2, but he actually lost some snaps with Coutee's return. Will Fuller was still out there on over 90% of the snaps and looks locked in to a full-time role. Both Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins had off days, again in large part thanks to the passing offense as a whole being either stifled or taken out of the game by O'Brien's play-calling, depending on your point of view.
Leonard Fournette again played a massive snap share, and he's going to have a big game as soon as the offense has a solid performance. But as noted, the offense was stuck in neutral for three quarters; they finished with just 281 total yards.
Compare what I said above about Hyde to Fournette, who had a poor game. He rushed just 15 times for 47 yards and didn't get any short-yardage runs because of the offensive woe. But, because he is an every-down back involved in the passing game, he added three catches on four targets in the fourth quarter while the Jaguars were in comeback mode. That got him to four catches for 40 yards on the day, and 12.7 PPR points in what felt like more of a floor game than a positive outcome. Not coming off the field for a T.J. Yeldon type in those late-game situations is very big for Fournette's value this year.
The Jacksonville receiving tree got more concentrated with Marqise Lee inactive and each of Dede Westbrook, Chris Conley and D.J. Chark picking up snaps. It was Chark who led the team with nine targets and seven receptions, finding the end zone. He tied with Conley for the team lead at 73 receiving yards, and Conley led the team in air yards. That duo is really raining on the Dede Westbrook breakout parade, but Westbrook shouldn't be abandoned just yet, and if he's dropped, he's an easy add. Chark is a more interesting play than Conley given he's a young guy with a solid profile, while Conley is in his fifth year and hasn't done much to date in his career.
- Signal: Carlos Hyde — role expanding, TRAPy touch mix; Will Fuller — still a full-time guy with all four WRs healthy; Leonard Fournette — massive snap share
- Noise: Houston — general lack of offense, passing yardage; Dede Westbrook — 3.0 yards per target
Semaine 2
Patriots 43 – Dolphins 0
- Snap Notes: Julian Edelman – 92% (-4%), Josh Gordon – 79% (+9%), Antonio Brown – 33% (+33%), Sony Michel – 49% (+16%), James White – 31% (-16%), Rex Burkhead – 24% (-22%), Matt LaCosse – 58% (+58%), DeVante Parker – 92% (+16%), Preston Williams – 68% (+27%), Kenyan Drake – 55% (+2%), Kalen Ballage – 34% (-7%), Mark Walton – 16% (+8%)
- Key Stat: Antonio Brown – 8 targets on 14 routes
This was a Sony Michel game. That was clear when the schedule was released. It's perhaps alarming, then, that Michel mustered just 12.5 Fantasy points in leagues where fumbles are minus-2.
I could essentially copy and paste the Carlos Hyde section, but Michel rushed 21 times for 85 yards with no targets. He did get five high-value touches, though three came on the same drive where he scored. He got two more chances on another drive, but that one ended with a Tom Brady sneak. Because Brady sneaks a lot and the Patriots also incorporate players like James Develin — who had four touchdowns last year — in close, I've never really bought into Michel's touchdown upside. Given he's only run eight routes this year, there's not much more here but low-value rush attempts in plus scripts. In a game like this, when he plays an elevated snap share and is heavily involved, he should absolutely score more than 12.5 PPR points, or you don't have a high-value Fantasy back.
James White and Rex Burkhead both took a back seat to Michel this week, but Burkhead's involvement in the passing game through two weeks isn't great news for White even when the script calls for more passing, especially with more downfield options in the passing game. Thus far, Burkhead has 10 targets to White's 11.
Antonio Brown ran just 14 routes, seeing eight targets and catching four with a touchdown. This seems an indication that as long as he's active, he's likely to command a high target share. Heath Cummings discussed what that means for Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon.
Matt LaCosse made his debut and was on the field quite a bit, catching both targets he saw for 33 yards. His 11.0 aDOT was notable in that it was more downfield than most tight ends. Benjamin Watson will eventually be returning, but I'm keeping an eye on LaCosse as a potential deeper tight end option.
There's not much to say about a Dolphins team that looks incapable of generating offense. Miami's 384 total yards through two games are the second-fewest in the first two games of a season by any team in the past eight years, trailing only last year's Cardinals. Neither Ryan Fitzpatrick nor Josh Rosen threw for more than 100 yards on 21 and 18 pass attempts, and they combined to take seven sacks and throw four interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns. Miami was somehow worse on the ground, managing just 42 rushing yards on 15 attempts. You can't start a single player in this offense right now.
- Signal: Miami — stay away; Antonio Brown — targeted heavily in limited playing time; Sony Michel — TRAP back
- Noise: Sony Michel — snap, touch increase (will fluctuate with game script)
Semaine 2
Lions 13 – Chargers 10
- Snap Notes: Ty Johnson – 21% (+11%), C.J. Anderson – 20% (-9%), Travis Benjamin – 66% (+18%), Mike Williams – 61% (-4%), Dontrelle Inman – 57% (+16%), Austin Ekeler – 73% (-2%), Justin Jackson – 27% (+2%)
- Key Stat: Austin Ekeler – 9 high-value touches (8 last week, leads league)
The Lions were substantially slower-paced in Week 2, as expected after their overtime game with the high-octane Cardinals. They didn't have many notable playing time changes, and followed up last week's performance with a similarly narrow passing tree, led by Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones running a full slate of routes and T.J. Hockenson (routes on 73% of dropbacks in Week 1, 69% in Week 2) and Danny Amendola (71% in Week 1, 63% in Week 2) each dipping slightly due likely to more run packages in Amendola's case and more bocking in Hockenson's. Last week, I had this to say about the passing game:
"Detroit also got a nice volume boost from the extra period, and we likely saw far more passing from Matthew Stafford than we'll see most weeks. T.J. Hockenson was a clear star with a 9-6-131-1 line, a phenomenal first performance for anyone, but especially a rookie tight end. Danny Amendola and Kenny Golladay joined him as Lions with at least nine targets and 120 air yards.
Amendola's 13-7-104-1 line also stands out, if only because of the easy comparison to Golden Tate's old high-volume role. But much like the Ravens' and Cowboys' writeups earlier, we do have to be concerned about whether both Amendola and Hockenson can be productive at the same time when the volume — Stafford threw 45 passes, more than any of his final 14 games in 2018 — and overall production comes back down a bit, especially assuming Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay will likely be the lead receiving options most weeks."
In Week 2, we saw that, with Stafford throwing 30 times, Hockenson and Amendola combining for just four targets, and Golladay and Jones leading the way with 10 and six targets. Golladay was particularly good, turning 148 air yards and the second-highest WOPR of Week 2 (0.83) into an 8-117-1 line.
Don't read too much into Jesse James seeing four targets to Hockenson's three. This was the bad end of the spectrum, but Hockenson ran twice as many routes as James, and should still be the lead option at the position for Detroit going forward. The issue is just volume, especially if Golladay is the legit No. 1 he looked like in Week 2.
Kerryon Johnson continues to be explosive and entertaining but a bit underworked for our purposes, while Ty Johnson got a little more work behind him at the expense of C.J. Anderson. J.D. McKissic is also involved, and it all adds up to just 14 touches for Kerryon out of 28 total for Detroit's RBs. Of course, an explosive 36-yard touchdown reception helped him post a very strong Fantasy total. He'll be hit-or-miss without more consistent work.
The only player with a higher WOPR than Golladay in Week 2 was on the other side of the same game, as Keenan Allen posted a massive 216 air yards — atypical downfield usage for him — on 15 targets, for a WOPR of 1.02. His 8-98-0 line undersells how heavily he was used, and he should continue to be leaned on while Hunter Henry is out.
Mike Williams played through injury and got close to his injury-shortened Week 1 snap share, again playing just shy of two-thirds of the snaps. He showed off his downfield ability with a ridiculous diving catch for a 47-yard gain with four seconds in the half to allow the Chargers to tack on a field goal before the break. He's a good bet to have some solid performances while Henry is out, as well.
Outside those two, the only other Charger with more than two targets was Austin Ekeler. Ekeler again played about three-quarters of the snaps, posting another strong Fantasy total that could have been much bigger. I hate to quote myself twice in the same blurb, but last week's Ekeler comment is notable.
"Austin Ekeler's Week 1 was the embodiment of what can happen when a low TRAP back gets a bigger workload. We may have expected a bit more of a timeshare with Justin Jackson, but Ekeler wound up playing 75% of the snaps, and he notably maintained a low TRAP, rushing just 12 times (including twice in the green zone) against six catches on seven targets. In other words, eight of his 18 touches were HVT. He scored on three of those."
Ekeler came back with nine more HVT on 23 total touches, and now leads the league in high-value touches. He scored on a short touchdown run, but fumbled away another opportunity while trying to leap over the pile a second time. It was a costly fumble for the Chargers, but they didn't go away from him, as he got a handoff on their very next offensive play after they regained possession.
Notably, just plays before the fumble, Ekeler took a short pass 22 yards for a touchdown, only for it to be called back. That he didn't get his second score on that drive was a cruel twist of fate.
Justin Jackson isn't getting the usage we'd like, but he also continues to look great. His long run on the day was a 40-yarder that was actually a 60-yard touchdown that was also called back by a downfield hold on Dontrelle Inman that negated the final 20 yards. He's definitely worth a stash, but he's hard to start while Ekeler is dominating the high-value touches. Jackson had just one, a five-yard reception, and ran six routes to Ekeler's 21.
- Signal: Keenan Allen — massive opportunity share without Hunter Henry; Kenny Golladay — looked like a true No. 1; Lions — 30/28 pass/run ratio; Austin Ekeler — one of the most valuable RB workloads in football right now
- Noise: Jesse James — 4 targets (T.J. Hockenson still ran twice as many routes)
Semaine 2
Packers 21 – Vikings 16
- Snap Notes: Marquez Valdes-Scantling – 87% (+20%), Geronimo Allison – 45% (-4%), Aaron Jones – 57% (-4%), Jamaal Williams – 47% (+8%), Jimmy Graham – 72% ( +18%), Stefon Diggs – 89% (+29%), Alexander Mattison – 12% (-9%), Irv Smith – 42% (-7%)
- Key Stat: Packers – 34/33 pass/run ratio
The Packers dominated the Vikings early, but never extended a lead that was briefly 21-0 early in the second quarter, and probably should have lost because of it. The biggest thing we learned is when they get positive game script, they will feed the running backs.
It might seem odd I said running backs and not just Aaron Jones, but the reality is Jones actually lost a few percentage points of snap share while Jamaal Williams gained relative to Week 1. Despite the fact that Jones out-targeted him six to four, Williams ran more routes, and his nine carries was decent usage on the ground.
Now, some of that was just that Jones likely needed some breathers, given he rushed 23 times and caught four more passes for 27 total touches. But it's worth pointing out that Jones didn't dominate the backfield — it was more that the duo combined for 39 touches!
Perhaps we'll see that type of usage whenever the Packers get big leads, but that's a lot. It ties Baltimore's Week 1 performance against Miami as the second most RB touches in a game through two weeks, behind only San Francisco's Week 2 numbers in Cincinnati, discussed above. Jones looked great, and it was big to see him jump from one high-value touch in Week 1 to five in Week 2, including four catches, but this should absolutely be read as a word of caution.
Outside the backs, it was strictly receivers catching passes, with Davante Adams powering through a tough matchup to post a 9-7-106 line. Marquez Valdes-Scantling saw the second biggest opportunity share with six targets and 62 air yards, but didn't do much with it, while Geronimo Allison turned his five targets at a miniscule 3.2 aDOT into a 4-25-1 line. Jimmy Graham had two catchless targets after being an important secondary option in Week 1.
This is a fairly typical result for a team with a legit No. 1 and a low-volume passing game. Aaron Rodgers only threw for 209 yards, and because Adams accounted for more than half of them, there just wasn't much else to go around.
Despite the huge hole they found themselves in early, Minnesota still finished with a run-heavy lean, with a 32/27 pass/run ratio (they threw more than they ran, but anything approaching 50/50 is run-heavy, especially in a negative script). Those 32 pass attempts are substantially more than last week's 10, and they moved away from their two-tight end sets and opened things up a bit, but the split also drives home the run-first philosophy, given the game situation the Vikings found themselves in. That's bad news for Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, and renders Kyle Rudolph droppable.
It's good news for Dalvin Cook backers, and he ripped off a 75-yard touchdown run for their first score en route to another huge rushing line (20-154-1). Cook also chipped in three catches for 37 yards, and while he won't maintain a 6.5 YPC and may not be a top three back if the rushing efficiency dips a bit, there's nothing too concerning here.
Diggs should have had a big day. He had one touchdown overturned on a booth-initiated replay inside two minutes of the first half that became an offensive pass interference penalty that didn't appear to be conclusive enough to warrant an overturn. Cousins also missed him on a couple throws he really should have made — Cousins struggled throughout to a 14/32 line — including this one:
Diggs also had an uncharacteristic drop of his own on what could have been a solid gain, but did bring in another deep pass for a touchdown, and his seven targets and 161 air yards were phenomenal usage. I'm not reading too much into the inefficiency on those targets.
Thielen, meanwhile, converted eight targets and 139 air yards of his own into a 5-75 line. The wide receiver duo combined for 48% of the team's targets and a ridiculous 89% of their air yards. It's not an ideal situation, but as long as they dominate the receiving game to that degree they will still be usable.
- Signal: Vikings/Packers — want to be run-heavy; Aaron Jones — only 69% of RB touches
- Noise: Packers — 39 RB touches overall; Stefon Diggs — one catch
Semaine 2
Dallas 31 – Washington 21
- Snap Share: Ezekiel Elliott – 76% (+22%), Devin Smith – 26% (+17%), Jason Witten – 77% (+11%), Blake Jarwin – 34% (-6%), Terry McLaurin – 90% (-2%), Paul Richardson – 87% (+7%), Trey Quinn – 79% (-18%), Chris Thompson – 45% (-19%), Adrian Peterson – 29% (+29%)
- Key Stat: Dak Prescott – 26/30, 269 yards, 3 TD, 69 rush yards
While Lamar Jackson has been rightfully grabbing headlines in the Fantasy community, Dak Prescott is perhaps going a bit underappreciated. The new Kellen Moore offense is clearly a major step up from prior Dallas schemes, and through two games Dak has completed a league-high 82.3% of his passes for a league-high 10.9 yards per attempt, with seven touchdowns and one interception.
That's great news for everybody on the offense, as is the next team on the schedule — Miami. The Cowboys did ramp up Ezekiel Elliott's usage in Week 2 (23-111-1), and it's possible we'll see him running roughshod over the Dolphins in Week 3 rather than Dak throwing 30-plus times. But there's no chance you can sit Dak for that matchup with how good he's been through two games.
It was part-time player Devin Smith who caught the long touchdown in Week 2, while Amari Cooper and Jason Witten caught shorter tosses for scores. Michael Gallup backed up his strong Week 1 with another good performance, leading the team with eight targets and catching six for 68, but he unfortunately tore his meniscus in the second half and will miss 2-4 weeks. Smith is the likely candidate to fill his role — interestingly, Smith's long touchdown came in the second quarter, before Gallup exited, and Smith caught two more passes in the fourth after Gallup was done for the day.
Witten's snaps rose, and he ran a route on two-thirds of Dak's dropbacks, up from 54% in Week 1. He's more of a PPR option, but is someone to consider in deeper formats as well while Gallup misses time. Of course, Amari Cooper is still the locked-in No. 1, and Randall Cobb has caught nine of 11 targets for 93 yards and a score through two games, so the Cowboys have options.
We noted last week Terry McLaurin was already playing a full snap share, and in Week 2 he solidified his status as the team's No. 1, seeing 10 targets for 134 air yards, good for a 0.83 WOPR that tied Kenny Golladay for second-highest on the week. His touchdown came late in garbage time, but even without it he had put together a nice day and seen plenty of volume throughout.
Paul Richardson also caught a touchdown, but saw just three targets at a 3.7 aDOT. Richardson has typically thrived as a deep threat, but despite running plenty of routes as an every-down guy, he has amassed just 86 air yards through two weeks. McLaurin and his 277 air yards has just taken those looks.
Chris Thompson and Trey Quinn were both active with eight and seven targets at low aDOTs and are not much more than PPR options, while Vernon Davis was used similarly but saw just four looks. None had overly appealing stat lines, but all ran plenty of routes and made up the rest of the main part of the receiving corps outside McLaurin and Richardson.
Adrian Peterson found paydirt but his 10-25 rushing line is both light on touches due to the negative script and light on efficiency, likely due to his age. He's unlikely to see much work in the passing game — he caught two balls in Week 2 but ran just five routes — so he's a tough guy to play in any matchup.
- Signal: Terry McLaurin — Clear No. 1 usage; Michael Gallup — will miss some time, but someone to add if dropped because his usage and production has been top notch, even better than Cooper's
- Noise: Adrian Peterson — The touchdown doesn't make him Fantasy relevant, and his two receptions were fluky given just five routes run
Semaine 2
Chiefs 28 – Raiders 10
- Snap Notes: Demarcus Robinson – 95% (+32%), Mecole Hardman – 77% (-1%), Damien Williams – 51% (-15%), LeSean McCoy – 43% (+14%), Hunter Renfrow – 75% (+46%), Josh Jacobs – 46% (-27%), Jalen Richard – 31% (+15%), DeAndre Washington – 23% (+14%)
- Key Stat: Patrick Mahomes – 549 air yards (career high by 82)
Patrick Mahomes is ridiculous. With Tyreek Hill sidelined, the Chiefs might have been expected to be a bit more conservative. Instead, after the Raiders got out to an early 10-0 lead, Mahomes aired it out more than ever, tossing four second-quarter touchdowns — the shortest of which was 27 yards — and setting a career high on the day with 549 air yards.
Somewhat surprisingly, Sammy Watkins didn't flourish, catching just six passes for 49 yards. But he was still the clear No. 1 by WOPR, leading the team with 13 targets and finishing with 139 air yards. The volume was very much there; his very strong Week 1 efficiency swung back to where he significantly underperformed his Week 2 volume. He's still a locked-in starter.
Travis Kelce did Travis Kelce things, posting a 9-7-107-1 line with 105 air yards. But Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman were the revelations. Robinson caught all six targets he saw at an aDOT of 25.3 (152 air yards) for 172 yards and two scores. Hardman was equally involved, seeing six targets and 82 air yards for a 4-61-1 receiving line but also losing another potential 72-yard score to a holding penalty on LeSean McCoy in the backfield. He very nearly had a line to match Robinson's.
I got asked on Twitter during the game which of the two I'd prioritize in season long by a follower who plays in a league with no waivers. It's almost impossible to say, and both are great adds, but the tiebreak for me right now would be Hardman already producing like this in his second career game, and how that speaks to further development in his rookie season, and likely more upside than Robinson.
With all the downfield passing, there wasn't much running back production. Damien Williams again led the backfield in snaps and routes run, seeing some downfield usage on wheel routes and posting a 9.6 aDOT on five targets, an uncharacteristically high figure for a running back. He left the game with a knee injury early in the fourth quarter that occurred away from the action and we don't have an update on, so his status moving forward is unclear. LeSean McCoy seemed to be filling a larger role even before Damien's injury, and he notably ran twice as many routes (16) as he did in Week 1 and caught three passes, but he too left with an injury. McCoy's was to the ankle, and an MRI revealed no structural damage.
As much as the two running back injuries seem to indicate Darwin Thompson could be in line for a significant uptick in snaps, Darrel Williams was also involved late, and he played five snaps to Thompson's four. We'll need more information on who is healthy to have any idea what the play is going forward.
I had this to say on Josh Jacobs last week:
"Josh Jacobs dominated the game for the Raiders in plus game script throughout, and Jon Gruden called his number 24 times, 23 of which were rush attempts. Jacobs was a hit largely because the offense was so successful — he converted two of his three green zone rush attempts for scores. Only three backs had more green zone attempts in Week 1.
As strong as his workload was, there's minor concern that his heavy touch count featured mostly low-value touches. It's only minor concern because he still racked up a solid four HVT, and Jalen Richard barely played. We don't know what the split will look like in negative scripts, and the Raiders will still find themselves there more often than not, but Week 1 was certainly a positive sign."
Jacobs wasn't completely absent in the passing game, but he gave up a ton of snaps in negative script and ran just 12 routes compared to Richard and DeAndre Washington combining for 21. He still helped his day with a solid 51-yard run, and two of his 12 rush attempts came in the green zone. In fact, right after a Jacobs 6-yard gain to the 4, Derek Carr threw a bad interception in the end zone on 1st and goal, something that might only increase the likelihood Jon Gruden leans on Jacobs when the Raiders get close. The lack of a receiving role is still a pretty significant concern, though.
Last season, Richard was a very valuable PPR back who caught 68 passes, but this year we're seeing him split the backup duties with Washington, which makes neither rosterable.
After a Week 1 where Tyrell Williams and Darren Waller dominated the passing game, Hunter Renfrow played substantially more snaps and became a clear third option, leading the team with eight targets but catching just four for 30. Williams and Waller both saw seven and were more productive, with Williams catching a touchdown and also being the end zone target on Carr's aforementioned interception. Both Williams and Waller are every-week starting options on volume alone.
- Signal: Patrick Mahomes — will air it out plenty without Tyreek Hill; Josh Jacobs — lost snaps in negative script
- Noise: Sammy Watkins — relative lack of production (still led team in WOPR by a considerable margin)
Semaine 2
Rams 27 – Saints 9
- Snap Notes: Todd Gurley – 64% (-6%), Malcolm Brown – 36% (+8%), Gerald Everett – 71% (+32%), Alvin Kamara – 65% (-11%), Latavius Murray – 35% (+8)
- Key Stat: Alvin Kamara – 1 HVT (7 in Week 1)
The loss of Drew Brees was the huge storyline from a game that could have been more of a shootout but became something far less exciting. And it's a significant loss, particularly for Alvin Kamara, as there's simply no one like Brees when it comes to targeting the running back position both from a volume and efficiency standpoint. Virtually every running back that has played with Brees throughout his career has posted elevated catch rates while on the Saints versus the rest of their career, and the Saints have also been in the top five of targets to the position in each season of the decade-plus Brees has been in New Orleans.
With Brees under center, this offense is in its own tier in terms of generating high-value touches for running backs. But with Teddy Bridgewater taking over for the majority of Week 2, Kamara saw just three targets and a less efficient offense overall meant no plays inside the opponent's 10-yard line.
Brees isn't out for the season, and it's possible Sean Payton and Brees will work with Bridgewater and try to fit him to the scheme somewhat, to mimic some of what Brees has done passing to the backs, so hope is not all lost. But it's a significant blow to the values of Kamara and Latavius Murray, especially as they will trade a lot of high-value touches for a likely higher rate of low-value rush attempts as the offense gets more conservative.
Michael Thomas is also hurt by the injury, despite a very typical 13-10-89 line in Week 2. His specific usage isn't damaged as much as the backs, but a big reason he's been so productive the past two seasons is ridiculous efficiency — he set the all-time catch percentage mark for a WR with over 100 targets last season by nearly eight percentage points at 85.0% — and we'd expect that efficiency to take a significant hit with the quarterback change.
And then guys like Jared Cook, Tre'Quan Smith and Ted Ginn were all interesting to varying degrees due to the efficiency of the offense more than their specific volume, because it's challenging to project any for significant target shares when Thomas in particular is such a target hog. So it's going to be tough to use that trio for the six weeks, the estimate on Brees' recovery, even if fewer passes to the backs could mean more downfield attempts.
The Rams' passing game is much the same as 2018, where all three main wide receivers are playing huge snaps, and you'll likely see at least two be productive in any given week. Robert Woods was the odd man out in this one, but he incredibly lost five targets and three receptions to plays negated by penalty, including a would-be 14-yard touchdown. He's not someone to worry about, but Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp were the beneficiaries. Cooks saw just four targets but led the team with 86 air yards, and converted a short touchdown to finish with a 3-74-1 line. Kupp had a phenomenal catch-and-run that was initially ruled a 66-yard touchdown but was overturned on replay as his knee was down at the 1. That led to a Jared Goff sneak, but Kupp still finished with a strong 9-5-120 line. Gerald Everett also saw an uptick in snaps and routes and is a deeper-league tight end to monitor.
Todd Gurley gave up a few more snaps, but we saw the same pattern we highlighted in Week 1. The Rams are simply rotating series, and while last week that meant two touchdowns for Malcolm Brown because he was in as the main back for both of those scoring drives, this week it meant a short touchdown for Gurley on one of his series.
Interestingly, Brown was the back to open the drive with the long Kupp reception, and he stayed in for the 1-yard Goff touchdown sneak after the lengthy review that overturned Kupp's touchdown. There was ample time for the Rams to substitute in Gurley because of the review, but they stuck to their pattern and kept Brown on the field. In 2017 or 2018, it's likely that even if Gurley were on the sideline for the beginning of such a series, he would have substituted in there. That's a microcosm of how Gurley's role has changed, but he still has plenty of value.
Still, Gurley had a solid day, catching three passes to jump to five high-value touches in Week 2 after just one in Week 1.
Darrell Henderson, who was going in the fifth round for a stretch this offseason when the Gurley panic was at its most extreme, has played just two snaps in two games. He's a tough guy to cut given the value of this offense when it's rolling and his strong prospect profile. It's probably necessary in shallower leagues, but he's still a good stash in deeper formats as a potential late-season breakout, and if I see him released in deeper formats I'm looking to scoop him up.
- Signal: Alvin Kamara — sure to lose a lot of high-value touches without Brees; Rams — rotating backs by series
- Noise: Robert Woods — just two targets (lost five targets, three receptions, a touchdown to plays negated by penalty)
Semaine 2
Bears 16 – Broncos 14
- Snap Notes: Anthony Miller – 52% (+31%), David Montgomery – 44% (+6%), Tarik Cohen – 38% (-34%), Mike Davis – 25% (-31%), Trey Burton – 43% (+43%), DaeSean Hamilton – 66% (-10%), Royce Freeman – 52% (+5%), Phillip Lindsay – 48% (-4%), Noah Fant – 66% (-15%)
- Key Stat: Royce Freeman — 7 targets, 5 receptions, 102 total yards
Another game where an exciting finish masked a more boring game overall, but there were plenty of interesting usage trends to look at.
Tarik Cohen went from 40 slot snaps and just five in the backfield in Week 1 to just five slot snaps and 15 in the backfield in Week 2. He had never played anywhere near the number of slot snaps he played in Week 1, but there's an interesting parallel in Duke Johnson's 2017 season. The Browns did similar in Week 1, playing Duke 45 snaps in the slot, before immediately reverting him to his old role — he played just 38 slot snaps total the rest of the season. My working theory on Cohen is we'll see similar, and that Week 1 was just a matchup thing and/or an attempt to catch Green Bay off guard.
Anthony Miller was the big winner from this shift, going from routes on 21% of Week 1 dropbacks to 48% in Week 2. He's still not playing enough and it's fine if you dropped him, but that bears watching.
Mitchell Trubisky only threw for 120 yards on 27 passes, and 30 of those yards came on two completions that set up a game-winning field goal. The Bears only generated 273 yards of total offense. Allen Robinson again looked like the clear No. 1, and was on the receiving end of a 25-yard completion on the game's penultimate play. His 7-4-41 line looks a little better when you consider game context.
Trey Burton returned to a partial role, running nine routes, while Chicago's other tight ends, Ben Braunecker (eight routes) and Adam Shaheen (seven), were also involved. All three had three targets, and we'll see whether Burton starts to pick up more snaps going forward.
It was a David Montgomery game, with the rookie taking 18 carries including five in the green zone on the same drive. After Montgomery was stuffed twice, the Bears threw on third down and drew a defensive holding penalty. An automatic first down led to three more Montgomery runs, and he finally found pay dirt on third down. Matt Nagy's willingness to keep calling Montgomery's number in lieu of passing or rotating in Mike Davis was very notable here.
In fact, Davis got just three touches all game and his snap share fell by 31 percentage points. It wasn't all positive for Montgomery, though. That Cohen was more involved in backfield snaps meant that Montgomery's snap share didn't rise by the same degree, and Cohen stole some of the passing downs work as Montgomery went from 15 routes in Week 1 to just seven in Week 2.
Last week, I called the Broncos not using Devontae Booker "one of the most interesting Week 1 takeaways."
"Last season, despite having both Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman, the Broncos somewhat quietly still utilized Devontae Booker heavily as a third-down back. In games played, Booker averaged 19.8 snaps per game with Lindsay at 30.2 and Freeman at 22.0."
I also noted that because the split between Lindsay and Freeman was closer to 50/50 than last year, Freeman was the big winner. Well in Week 2, Freeman out-snapped Lindsay and was the far more effective back. With Joe Flacco pulling a Joe Flacco and throwing for fewer than 300 yards on 50 attempts, there were plenty of checkdowns to go around, and both Freeman and Lindsay saw seven targets. Lindsay did out-carry Freeman 13 to 11, but Freeman gained 102 total yards to Lindsay's 66.
This is a good time to remind you that Freeman was the second-round pick last year while Lindsay was the UDFA. Yes, Lindsay had a great rookie season, but Freeman had a ridiculous college production record that included very strong receiving numbers — over 800 career receiving yards to go along with over 5,600 rushing yards and 64 career touchdowns — and at nearly 50 pounds heavier (with better agility metrics and without sacrificing much speed) is the far more physically gifted back of the two. Given the team situation with Flacco targeting the position 14 times in Week 2, Freeman is one of the biggest buys of Week 2.
Emmanuel Sanders continued to prove he isn't of this world, both by playing such massive snap shares when most would still be rehabbing but also by posting a 13-11-98-1 line with a ridiculously athletic go-ahead touchdown catch late. I've been slow to come around and have him on zero of my own teams, but he's pretty clearly a feature part of their passing game.
Sanders' aDOT on those targets was just 5.9, and I noted this offseason how his aDOT had fallen for several years in a row even before his Achilles injury.
That helps explain why DaeSean Hamilton doesn't have much of a role, as he's most effective on short-area targets. Courtland Sutton, meanwhile, is locked in to the lead downfield role; he had more air yards (82) on his seven targets than Manny did (77) on his 13. Sutton converted two key fourth downs on the final go-ahead drive and is an important piece of this passing game, but suffers a bit when Flacco is unwilling to take shots downfield.
Noah Fant played a bit less but still ran routes on 65% of dropbacks, and his 4-4-33 line wasn't bad. As an athletic tight end, he's another guy who can be a downfield target, as he showed off on a 24-yard catch in the third quarter. He's certainly someone to keep an eye on.
- Signal: Royce Freeman — expanding role, huge upside; Tarik Cohen — back to a normal receiving back role; Mike Davis — relegated to deeper backup role
- Noise: Bears receivers — Mitchell Trubisky might not be great, but there will be far more than 120 passing yards to go around most weeks
Semaine 2
Falcons 24 – Eagles 20
- Snap Notes: Devonta Freeman – 62% (+13%), Ito Smith – 38% (-13%), JJ Arcega-Whiteside – 93% (+86%), Mack Hollins – 85% (+71%), Miles Sanders – 43% (-6%), Darren Sproles – 35% (+5%), Jordan Howard – 22% (-1%)
- Key Stat: Miles Sanders — 4 of team's 5 RB green zone touches through two games
Sunday Night Football was weird, as both Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz struggled, combining for five interceptions including a couple pretty ugly ones. The Falcons pulled it out, and there's just not much to talk about with them. Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are the clear top two passing options, and both totaled 10 targets, put up over 100 yards and scored.
Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper are full-time players who both also see plenty of targets, and the backfield is a split between Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith. This is essentially what Atlanta was all of last season, just with different running backs.
Freeman did get back to a larger share of the backfield, with Smith still involved. They each had three high-value touches and for the season Freeman has six to Smith's five. Smith got the green zone carry, and we saw him be a vulture of Tevin Coleman at times last year, plus he scored three preseason touchdowns on just 17 rushes, so that's not all that surprising. They like him in close.
Miles Sanders had five high-value touches, including rush attempts from the 8-yard line and 7-yard line on two separate drives. His snap share dipped a bit but he ran three more routes in Week 2, and caught three passes. Darren Sproles was more involved in the passing game this week, leading the backfield with 23 routes, but Sanders has run more routes through the two games combined.
Sanders' output in Week 2 was disappointing and the Eagles are always going to rotate backs to some degree, but he started again, led the backfield in snaps and touches again, and got the high-leverage looks inside the green zone again. He should be viewed similarly to Kerryon Johnson right now but his production hasn't been there so there's still a buying window.
The Eagles lost all of Dallas Goedert, Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson early, which meant a huge uptick in snaps for JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Mack Hollins. Perhaps predictably, Zach Ertz saw 16 targets and frankly disappointed a bit with an 8-72 line, while Nelson Agholor saw 11 of his own and had a strong night with 8-107-1.
If any of that trio misses next week, it will be difficult to handicap this receiving corps. Hollins saw eight targets and outproduced Arcega-Whiteside, but it's Arcega-Whiteside that would be the preferred play if he's again in line for big snaps as a plus prospect who would have made more noise this offseason if he hadn't been buried by a deep pass-catching corps.
- Signal: Miles Sanders — still a buy
- Noise: Zach Ertz/Nelson Agholor — elevated target share (injuries to everyone else)
Semaine 2
Browns 23 – Jets 3
- Snap Notes: Damion Ratley – 61% (+12%), Nick Chubb – 61% (-9%), D'Ernest Johnson – 39% (+26%), Le'Veon Bell – 90% (-10%), Ty Montgomery – 35% (+28%), Demaryius Thomas – 10% (+10%)
- Key Stat: Le'Veon Bell — 10 targets, 10 receptions (19, 16 through two weeks)
The Browns won Monday night, but they didn't look great offensively save for a couple of Odell Beckham highlights. Beckham made a phenomenal one-handed catch early, then scored on an 89-yard catch-and-run late in the third to finish with a huge 10-6-161-1 day.
Nick Chubb was the other offensive star, catching all four targets he saw while running routes on a healthy 55% of dropbacks for the second straight week. With Dontrell Hilliard out, D'Ernest Johnson worked behind Chubb and matched his four targets, but Chubb was out in five more routes. Along with a green zone carry on the first drive (he was stuffed; he scored from 19 yards out later), Chubb finished with five high-value touches. He's a guy I was concerned wouldn't get enough passing-game work, so the routes and the high-value touches he's been seeing have definitely elevated him in my eyes. Of course, Kareem Hunt's return will continue to loom over his late-season Fantasy value all year.
Signs haven't been as positive for Jarvis Landry. Last season, his aDOT (11.9) was more than four yards higher than his career high (7.4) during his time with Miami, and it killed his efficiency. While deeper targets typically mean a lower catch rate, Landry's 54.4% in 2018 was a career low by 12 percentage points, and he also posted the second-lowest YPT of his career, and that's a stat that we would expect to ascend with deeper targets. My hope for 2019 was the addition of Beckham would allow Landry to shift back to a role that resembled his time with the Dolphins, but thus far he's seen 14 targets at an aDOT of 11.4 and caught just seven for 99 yards. He's seeing solid volume, but in that role he's tough to start in Fantasy.
Damion Ratley got a little extra run with Rashard Higgins out, while Demetrius Harris picked up snaps after David Njoku suffered a concussion after just 10 snaps. Neither is a Fantasy option.
Without Sam Darnold, the Jets turned to Trevor Siemian, then turned to Luke Falk when Siemian was knocked from the game. They generated just 262 yards of total offense.
Le'Veon Bell looked healthy, and again played a huge snap share. I noted last week how heavily all five starters played for the Jets, and that trend continued this week, with the exception of Quincy Enunwa, who was sent to IR. Each of Bell, Robby Anderson, Jamison Crowder, and tight end Ryan Griffin played at least 90% of the snaps, and the fifth skill position slot was mostly Josh Bellamy with Ty Montgomery working in a decent amount in two running back sets and a pinch of Demaryius Thomas (seven snaps).
Bell was the star, catching all 10 of his targets and seeing a whopping 31 touches. Through two weeks, Bell is tied with Austin Ekeler for the most high-value touches among the league's backs, and the only issue you can find with his role is the Jets simply aren't very good so the scoring opportunities will be limited. But he's seeing plenty of pass-game work (a whopping 72 routes through two weeks, second behind McCaffrey among the league's RBs), and he looks good on the field after a year away from the game.
Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder each saw six targets and four receptions. That's better for Anderson at his aDOT, and he was able to generate 81 yards, while Crowder is a little more volume-dependent (his four catches went for 40). The quarterback situation will hold them back for a couple of weeks. The Jets do get a Week 4 bye, and it's nice they'll get that out of the way while Darnold isn't fit to play.
- Signal: Nick Chubb — strong routes run, passing game involvement; Le'Veon Bell — elite routes run, passing game involvement; Jarvis Landry — aDOT elevated in 2018 range, efficiency lagging
- Noise: Baker Mayfield — 325 pass yards, 9.3 YPA (numbers would have looked a lot more pedestrian without Beckham's YAC on the long touchdown, earlier great catch)
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