Iowa Poll: Elizabeth Warren in front of Biden and Sanders

Senator Elizabeth Warren led a new major election in Iowa, slightly ahead of favorite Joe Biden in an investigation of Democratic voters in that state. The results come after months of ramp-up by Warren, but it remains to be seen whether she will be able to maintain or rely on these numbers: many respondents indicated that their current choices were not thus leaving room for turnarounds in the five months leading up to the first caucus next year.

The latest Des Moines / CNN / Mediacom Poll Iowa Poll, released Saturday night, places Warren's support among Iowa-backed Democrats at 22 percent, just ahead of Biden's 20 percent. (The survey has a margin of error of 4%).

Warren is also the second choice, or a candidate actively considered for more voters than Biden; the count of those who have the senator as their first or second choice, or who are otherwise "actively" considering it, is at 71%. Biden is closest to Warren on this metric: 60% of voters consider it one way or another.

"This is the first major reshuffle," Des Des Moines, J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., who conducted the survey, told Des Des Moines. "It 's the first time we have anyone else than Joe Biden at the top of the rankings.

Senator Bernie Sanders was the only other candidate to achieve double-digit support at 11%. Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Kamala Harris followed with support of 9% and 6% respectively.

The Senators were supported by the Sense. Cory Booker of New Jersey and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota (3%); former Texas representative Beto O'Rourke, representative of Hawaii Tulsi Gabbard and entrepreneurs Tom Steyer and Andrew Yang (2%).

New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, who ended his campaign on Friday, was not designated by a single elector as first or second choice for the president. Representative Tim Ryan of Ohio and former representative Joe Sestak of Pennsylvania shared this dubious distinction.

While Warren is now at the top, his support remains fluid

As Vox's Andrew Prokop explained, the publication of the Selzer poll was eagerly awaited, as his work was considered the gold standard for Iowa polls and the few polls recently published in that state came from groups newer and less established. However, the most recent figures actually reflect those of one of the two polls conducted following the September Democratic primary debate: online survey of Civiqs conducted on behalf of Iowa State University, it showed that Warren was leading with 24% of the vote, which is significantly higher than the second tie, Biden and Sanders with 16%.

If the lead suggests that the race may change, it is important to remember that the Iowa caucuses will be held in five months. During this period, many things can and will probably change. In fact, few voters in Iowa – only one in five – told Selzer's investigators that their decision was made. And 63% of respondents said they could still change their minds.

These figures are even more shy for Warren in particular: only 12% of his supporters say their choice is firm, while 88% say they could still be convinced to place their support elsewhere. On the other hand, a quarter of Biden's supporters are firm in their choice. 70% of them say they could be persuaded to choose another candidate.

"I feel there are still plenty of opportunities," Selzer told the Monks' Registry. "The leaders are not so strong. The universe is not locked up.

The universe of Warren's support is broader than that of the other candidates, but others who have had disappointing results in this survey could boast figures corresponding to their potential supporters. For example, the former secretary of the HUD, Julián Castro, who had polled only 1% of the vote, 22% of voters consider it.

Castro's potential support pool is still well below that of other candidates, particularly Biden, who still benefits from the second-largest support universe at 60%. Harris and Buttigieg are tied (55%); they are followed by Sanders (50%), followed by Booker (42%), O'Rourke (38%) and Klobuchar (37%).

The good news for Warren is a reflection of his steady rise in polling stations in Iowa. In Selzer's election last December, it was 8% and 9% in March. In June, she became an elbow to shoulder with Sanders, his fellow progressive, at 15%. It's his first time on the whole field.

For its part, Sanders' support has stagnated in recent months and this survey is down slightly. In December, his support was 19%. It rose to 25% in March. In June, it dropped to 16%.

This decline is particularly noticeable among young voters, the demographic group currently headed by Warren. According to the latest poll, Sanders has only 11% of voters aged 35 or under, compared to 16% in June and 25% in March.

Warren may have entered this key constituency, which helped Sanders threaten his rival, Hillary Clinton, in 2016, notes the Des Moines Register. Only a quarter of the Sanders Caucus members in 2016 said they would do it again. 32% said they would rather support Warren.

In a race where voters have many more candidates than in 2016, all candidates are forced to work hard to stand out, but new numbers suggest that old favorites like Biden and Sanders may need to do more. They want to ride. until the summit.