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The United Nations Annual General Assembly will take place this week in a context of crisis – from global warming to economic uncertainty, to heated conflict that threatens to drag the United States even further into the world. unstable climate of the Middle East.
Trade wars, migration, energy supplies, climate change and poverty eradication underpin the basic themes of the agenda of the 193 members of the General Assembly. But the actions of the Trump administration, which has sometimes expressed disdain for international institutions such as the United Nations, have created a common denominator.
"All the main topics that people are going to talk about in the corridors are related to: What is American politics?" Said Jeffrey D. Feltman, former US diplomat and former UN Under-Secretary of Political Affairs.
Some leaders do not come, including Chinese presidents Xi Jinping and Russian Vladimir Putin, and Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister struggling. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, considered by the Trump administration and by about 50 other governments as an illegitimate leader, is not expected either.
But a personality, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, will be present. Ukrainian leader plans to meet President Trump in a growth context concerns that the US leader had pressured him on US domestic policy issues.
There is also the question of what governments, in particular Pakistan, could say about India 's abolition of the disputed Kashmir autonomous status. On Sunday, Mr. Trump appeared with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Houston at a rally called "Howdy, Modi!
Some of the biggest moments and confrontations could happen early in the week. Here is what to expect:
Similar-minded leaders: Bolsonaro, Trump, el-Sisi, Erdogan.
President Trump, whose penchant for diplomatic, alarmist and diplomatic bombings is well known, will be surrounded Tuesday by a like-minded company when the speeches begin.
Trump will be preceded by Brazilian President Jair M. Bolsonaro, sometimes called mini-trump, a polarizing figure at home who, like Trump, ignores fears over climate change and ridicules criticism on Twitter.
After Mr. Trump, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, a former general who came to symbolize the repression of the revolutions of the Arab Spring – although his appearance was questioned last weekend. demonstrations broke out at home. Then comes Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, an autocrat who has intimidated critics and whose government is one of the leading jailers of journalists.
The United States and Saudi Arabia will plead their case against Iran.
Until recently, speculation abounded on the fact that Mr. Trump would make history by meeting with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. But the Sept. 14 attack on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, which US and US officials blame Iran, has at best rendered such an unlikely meeting.
US officials should present what they described as evidence that Iran has conducted the attack using drones and cruise missiles. Iran has denied the prosecution. The Houthi rebels in Yemen, backed by Iran in its fight against a Saudi coalition bombing their country for more than four years, have claimed responsibility.
Mr. Rouhani will be speaking on Wednesday and he will almost certainly say that Mr. Trump unleashed the cycle of conflict by withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal with the major powers and imposing heavy sanctions paralyze its economy.
The United States is trying to form a coalition to dissuade Iran, although it is unclear what form this deterrence would take. The General Assembly gives the administration an opportunity to "continue to move slowly in the military response to an increased coalition and increased political and economic pressure," said Aaron David Miller, senior official of Carnegie Endowment for International. Peace.
At a meeting on climate change, US leaders will be absent.
The climate crisis is one of the priorities of the General Assembly. Some 60 heads of state are planning to speak at Monday's Climate Action Summit, and officials are planning to announce initiatives that include zero net carbon emissions in buildings.
The United States does not have such projects – Mr. Trump announced in 2017 that he was remove the country from the Paris agreement on climate change. But some state governors who formed the US Climate Alliance said they would attend the summit and meet with other delegations.
The United States and China will discuss the resolution of their trade war. Mr. Trump may raise other issues.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was scheduled to meet with his Chinese counterparts on the sidelines, hinting that the administration was looking to create a more productive climate for the resumption of trade talks after weeks of acrimony. Both governments have recently paused in their battle over tariffs.
However, some administration officials are asking Trump to deal with other issues deemed sensitive by China, including protests for democracy in Hong Kong, repression of Tibetans and detentions of more than 50,000 people. 39 million Muslims, mainly Uighurs. One official said Trump should at least criticize China for attempting to intimidate Uyghur activists in the US.
Mr. Trump never spoke forcefully about human rights and he openly expressed admiration for Mr. Xi and the other authoritarian rulers. But legislators from both sides of Congress are pushing Trump to act. The Uighurs, Tibet and Hong Kong bills are intended to force Mr. Trump and the administration to take firmer positions.
The leaders of Japan and South Korea, Asia's main allies with America, do not speak.
While Mr Moon should urge Trump to renew his diplomatic effort with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, no senior North Korean official intends to attend the General Assembly.
Europe will be under pressure to penalize the Venezuelan government.
Foreign Ministers from 18 countries in the Western Hemisphere, including the United States, are scheduled to meet on Monday to discuss what can be done about Maduro, who presided over the worst economic collapse of Venezuelan history and a regional debate. crisis caused by the exodus of millions of people.
The campaign will focus on convincing the European Union to extend economic sanctions against Maduro's loyalists, including freezing their holdings in Europe. Europeans may also be in a hurry to penalize Venezuelan gold smugglers to Europe.
Maduro, who won the contested elections last fall, has retained power despite nine months of resignation from a stubborn opposition movement led by Venezuelan parliament speaker Juan Guaidó. Negotiations between Venezuelan rivals collapsed last week.
Frictions thwart America and Turkey.
Mr. Trump and President Erdogan should meet on the side, but the results are not clear at best. A whole series of difficult problems have pitted their governments against each other.
According to him, the Americans failed to establish a security zone large enough to prevent Kurdish fighters from entering Turkey, which they consider to be terrorist insurgents. On Saturday, Erdogan warned that his forces would engage in "unilateral actions" along the border if the US did not act by the end of the month.
Last but not least – Afghanistan.
Someone must speak last in the list of national delegations addressing the General Assembly. This year, Afghanistan is the most affected region, just weeks after the Taliban-US talks failed to end the 18-year-old war.
With the national elections scheduled for next Saturday, President Ashraf Ghani was not expected. Instead, the Afghan delegation will be led by Hamdullah Mohib, Ashraf's adviser on national security.
Mr. Mohib Trump administration angry, in March, when he predicted that peace talks would not end in peace.
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