The Phillies, due to underperformance and injuries, failed in 2019 – so what can be repaired before 2020?

The Phillies have been eliminated from the playoffs for 2019, and although it has been waiting for several weeks, it is nevertheless a disappointment for the team and its founders. This is a disappointment, as the Phillies, after a respectable campaign of 80 victories in 2018, invested heavily last winter in building a team in contention.

In addition to signing a $ 330-million contract with Bryce Harper, general manager Matt Klentak also signed agreements with Andrew McCutchen and David Robertson and traded against J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura. Combine all this with Rhys Hoskins (first base, where he belongs) and a young rotation including Aaron Nola, Zach Eflin, Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez. Instead, the Phillies at the time of writing and at this late hour still have not matched their total victories of a year ago. They also hang around a negative differential.

So, what has happened? Let's look at some key underlying indicators and their trend from last year to this year:

You see some modest progress in attack and some notable improvements on the defensive side. The throwing of the Phillies, however, was a different story. The rotation of the ERA has remained stable and the ER of the corrector has improved in terms of rank in the league. At the FIP level, however, things got a lot worse.

FIP (or Fielding Independent Pitching) has been sized to look like the ERA but reflects only results that have nothing to do with implementation – that is, stick outs, steps and the circuits at home are allowed. Basically, this is what a pitcher's EAR might look like if you provide him with medium defensive support and average chance. As such, it makes it possible to better measure the raw pitching skills that the ERA, and it generally sheds better future performance than the ERA. This is where the concern of the Phillies lies, especially in the rotation.

Philly's office was injured early and often in 2019, and you can explain some of their problems with that. The Phils this season have been one of the most injured baseball teams, and this has been the hardest hit in the scorer, where seven of their top eight lifters (!) Have missed a considerable time. The rotation, however, does not have such excuses.

This season, Aaron Nola, the ace, sometimes seemed to be the guy who finished third in the Cy Young poll in Newfoundland, but the consistency – and overall numbers for the 2018 class – has been missed. Nola was supposed to organize a young and fascinating rotation that also included Eflin, Pivetta and Velasquez. While Eflin was good, Velasquez and Pivetta deviated from the rotation at various times. In other words, it is an aspiring candidate who, in 2019, has offered more than 20 starts to Drew Smyly and Jason Vargas. Add to that the continuing decline – in terms of performance and health – of Jake Arrieta. First-year pitcher Chris Young may be in jeopardy (with, of course, sophomore manager Gabe Kapler).

In the future, the Phillies will begin the 2020 season with Harper, Segura, Nola, Arrieta, McCutchen and Scott Kingery under contract and Realmuto, Hoskins, Eflin, Pivetta and Velasquez under team control. These are the ingredients of a competitor, but Philly's property will have to invest more in the product.

At present, the payroll is such that the Phillies can afford to add at least one impact arm to reach Nola at the front of the rotation. Gerrit Cole, with the exception of an unexpected extension to Houston, will be the free agent market price. It should definitely be in the Phillies' line of sight. Other options include Stephen Strasburg (should he exercise his renunciation), Cole Hamels, Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Jake Odorizzi. Strengthen the rotation through free agencies (the Phillies farming system is probably too weak to succeed a blockbuster) and devoting great organizational attention to the development of Eflin / Pivetta / Velasquez should be the number one priority this season. Do it, and the Phillies will be better positioned to face the playoffs for the first time since 2011.