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The results of Joe Biden's polls are plummeting in the first candidate states that matter most.
Biden, who was once the dominant leader of the Democratic primary, is now lagging behind Elizabeth Warren in the first Caucus State, Iowa, and the first state of New Hampshire. His firewall in South Carolina shows signs of cracking and he loses his formerly overwhelming Florida lead, according to a recent poll.
Biden's descent has been ongoing for months, the result of relentless firing by progressives, questions about his age and stamina, negative coverage marks against poor debates and misrepresentation, according to pollsters. supporters. They also evoke a campaign message that sometimes put too much emphasis on President Trump's attack and his statement to be the "most eligible" democrat on the ground.
But perhaps the most important factor has been the rise of Warren, a Massachusetts senator, who has consistently nurtured grassroots outreach and in-depth policy proposals that he has made. have seduced the progressives.
"Biden now has a challenger. He did not have one before, "said Ryan Tyson, a Florida-based pollster, who shared three important polls he has just done in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida showing that Biden is slipping and that Warren wins.
While national polls have shown less movement in the race, state-based polls provide a more useful tool. indication of the trajectory of the primary.
"If you see Warren win in Iowa and New Hampshire one after the other, whoa! Really! Biden begins to lose his argument on the ability to be eligible, "said Tyson, who is generally investigating for Republicans. "Can Biden stay in South Carolina if he loses in the first states? I do not know."
The former vice president continues to conduct most of the national polls. He beat Trump in general election meetings in all major surveys this year. But the downward trend of the first figures of Biden's first election and his favorable ratings – which started well before recent reports on how President Donald Trump pushed Ukraine will investigate old commercial ties involving the son of the former vice president – suggests that several months of bruising have had harmful consequences.
"Biden's support has always been weak. That's the key, "said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Survey Institute. "Unlike some other candidates, Biden's support is not so stuck, he does not have that" it "factor."
The Biden campaign, which bristling with both the candidate's media coverage and attention to polls, would not comment on this article.
With more than four months to go until the Iowa caucus on February 3rd, there is enough time for the race dynamics to change. But there is also a reason for alarm for Biden. In New Hampshire, Tyson's likely 600 polls indicate that Warren holds 18% of the vote and Biden 15% in an open poll. This is a radical change from his last poll: Biden loses 18 points, while Warren wins 7, a change of 25 points.
Although the methodologies differ slightly, these figures from New Hampshire resemble a Monmouth University poll released Tuesday, according to which Warren was leading Biden by 2 points on a poll of 401 voters.
"We find in our survey that people say that Warren is eligible. She's pragmatic, "said Murray. "I heard that when I spoke to voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, and we're already seeing it in the polls."
Similarly, since May, Biden has again lost 18 points in South Carolina, although he remains in first place with 19% of the vote, according to the poll conducted by Tyson on 600 voters.
The Tyson polls were conducted for a non-profit political organization, Let's Preserve the American Dream. He does not disclose his donors and has ties to Florida's business interests, but Tyson says he has also worked with democratically minded groups as well as with conservative groups.
Warren, who has spent relatively little time and money in South Carolina, has earned only one point since May and enjoys a 9% support in the poll. But she is now second because Bernie Sanders has plummeted there as in New Hampshire and Iowa.
Biden's level of support in South Carolina makes it a firewall, but even in South Carolina, there are worrying signs of erosion. While he remains at the top, among Black voters, who represent more than 60% of Democratic voters, Biden lost 19 points in Tyson polls. This is a potential indicator of the problems he may face after the February 29 primaries in South Carolina, when many of the very small Southeast Asian states – as well as Texas and California – began voting on Tuesday. March 3 and then.
Florida, where about 28 percent of Democratic primary voters are black, will vote on March 17. Biden leads with 24% of Democratic votes, losing 15 points since Tyson polls in May. Warren is ranked second with 11%, an increase of 6 points, while Sanders is third with 5%, a loss of 11 points since the first debate with the candidates.
The percentage of undecided Democratic voters has also climbed to double digits in state polling stations.
In Iowa, Warren edged Joe Biden – slightly – for the first time, according to the latest Des Moines Register / CNN / Mediacom poll released Saturday. Pollster J. Ann Selzer's highly praised survey of caucus members showed that Warren had an enthusiasm gap: 32% said they were "extremely excited" about the Massachusetts senator's caucus, compared to 22% supporters of the former vice president.
Selzer said that "the footprint" of Warren voters – the percentage of people saying that she was a second choice or that they would consider a caucus for her – is 10 points higher than that of Biden.
Overall, Warren has 22% support for Biden's 20% – a sharp 11-point change in Warren's favor since the last Selzer poll for the Des Moines register in June.
"Biden's favorability has dropped, its adverse number has doubled. In the absence of any context, it's not bad. But Elizabeth Warren's numbers are surprisingly good, "said Selzer.
Selzer noted that Biden is "always a force" and that the poll she's realized was "worse for Bernie Sanders".
Compared to other first states, polls are rare in Nevada, the third state in the country. A survey released Tuesday by USA Today / Suffolk University revealed that Biden maintained a 23 to 19 percent lead over Warren, whose campaign in that state got very good ratings from Democrats.
At the national level, the first figures of Biden have not decreased as much as in the first states. Pollster Peter Hart said his latest national survey for the Wall Street Journal and NBC showed signs of weakness. In April, during Biden's first official participation in the race, 32% said they were excited to back him up. In the last survey, 23% said Biden.
Hart said Biden may be experiencing a rallying effect in recent days from Democrats, who are advancing with indictment plans following Trump 's alleged threat to cut US military aid to the United States. Ukraine, unless US officials investigate Biden and his son.
But beyond talking about Trump, Hart said he had not heard Biden put the spotlight on politics like Warren and others did. And that could leave voters wanting more.
"Instead of controlling the race, the race controls it," Hart said. "The hardest thing to do is to be a leader without a program compared to the candidates on his left who present bold plans that galvanize people where they say," I want to be with Joe Biden. "
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