Pay attention to what you want: an impeachment investigation poses risks for 2020 Democrats

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Democratic presidential candidates were almost unanimous in welcoming the decision by Democrats in the House to open a dismissal investigation against Republican President Donald Trump for accusing the US of He is seeking foreign aid to discredit a political rival.

Now comes the difficult part.

With the indictment to eclipse the Democratic presidential primary race, how will the candidates draw attention to their key political issues, ranging from universal health to income inequality?

After months of resistance to pressure from Democrats, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced Tuesday the launch of a formal impeachment effort, accusing Trump of seeking foreign aid. to hurt Democratic leader Joe Biden ahead of the November 2020 elections.

Trump had lobbied Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on a phone call on July 25 to investigate Biden and his son Hunter, who were working for a gas drilling company in Ukraine.

The impeachment inquiry ensures a partisan struggle in Congress and in the presidential campaign of the coming months.

Kurt Meyer, chairman of the Democratic Party of three rural counties in Iowa north of Des Moines, the most populous city in the state, said he was counting on the impeachment process to boost the Democratic base.

"If a very motivated person drags his mother, her husband and her cousin twice at the polls, it will make a difference," Meyer said.

But the probe could also boost Trump's base. His re-election campaign raised a quarter of a million dollars in just 15 minutes Tuesday after Pelosi's announcement of the survey.

Trump was quick to present himself as the victim of Democratic party attacks, while his campaign had launched several fundraising appeals to his supporters on Tuesday, closely linked to the launch of the impeachment.

It is also to be feared that any substantive political discussion between the 19 Democrats who run for Trump in the 2020 elections will be drowned in the growing battle between his allies and enemies, said several strategists and Democratic experts.

"Trump was the elephant in the room, but the democratic debates have so far been really focused on politics. I think dismissal is now central, "said Erin O'Brien, associate professor of political science at the University of Massachusetts in Boston.

Doug Heye, a Republican strategist who has worked with congressional leaders, said that Republican messaging has become simpler, if not less positive.

"For Democrats running for president, it has become much more difficult to break into the health sector or into the economy," he said. "The indictment will be the dominant subject for a long time."

"ABOUT TRUMP AFFECTION"

Biden, who leads the polls in the Democratic race to pick a competitor for Trump, said Tuesday that he would support the dismissal if the Republican president did not act on congressional demands for information. Ukraine and other subjects.

Trump raised unsubstantiated accusations that Biden had made an improper attempt to suspend a Ukrainian investigation into a company related to his son, without providing any evidence of wrongdoing.

Later on Tuesday, while he was organizing a fundraiser in Baltimore, Maryland, Biden said he "can take these attacks".

"And the reason I'm attacked is that most polls show that I beat him 10 to 15 points. I am not at all surprised to have become the object of his affection and attention, "he said.

According to the Reuters / Ipsos opinion poll released Sept. 23-24, Biden ahead of Trump by almost 5 percentage points in a hypothetical match in the legislative against Trump.

In a sign showing that Biden supporters largely support their candidate so far, 20% of Democrats and Independents said they would vote for him in nominations competitions that will begin next year. according to the latest survey, up 1 percentage point from a similar survey. ran last week.

But the same poll also showed that Americans are generally less supportive of Trump's indictment than a few months ago, pointing to the risk that the movement will turn against the Democrats if they are seen too far.

"At one level, this whole thing helps Biden, because it makes the president afraid of Biden," said Kyle Kondik, a political analyst at the University of Virginia. "But the president has a great ability to drag people in the mud with him, and you wonder if it could happen to Biden."

Biden's Democratic rivals, including US Senators Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris, should take advantage if the runner falls. But most have so far refused to be drawn into specific questions about Biden and his family, and will likely stay that way.

"On one side, they want to see Biden's fight, but that could undermine the party as a whole during the general election," Kondik said.

Warren, who beat Sanders for the first time to rank second behind Biden in the latest Reuters / Ipsos poll with 14% support, said on Twitter that the impeachment procedure was "an expected but important step."

"No one is above the law – not even the president of the United States," Warren said, not to mention Biden. "Thank you to all who protested, organized and asked the crucial questions to bring us to this moment.

Until now, Trump has shown remarkable resistance to repeated scandals and continued support from Republicans.

Democrats must act quickly to convince voters that their actions are necessary – and prevent Trump from claiming that he is pursued unjustly, said Joel Payne, a Democratic strategist who advised Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign.

Rebecca Cordova, 62, from the suburbs of Austin, Texas, who describes herself as an independent but voted for Trump in 2016, said it would require compelling evidence of wrongdoing for to dissuade her from voting for him again.

"I think the Democrats are just smoking. They are just trying to start something like they did with Russia, "she said, referring to former Special Adviser Robert Mueller's investigation into Russia's interference in the presidential elections 2016.

"I do not think the Russians helped and I do not believe that with the Ukrainians, sorry."