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In making the choices last week, I went with a lot of favorites. It was a good thing, because I managed a decent 10-6.
The bad news was that my record against the spread was a terrifying 6-10.
It's pathetic. I should have learned my lesson. I hate to pick a lot of favorites, but guess what?
I lean again this way.
Hope this ends. The only outsider I really like this week is the Buffalo Bills against the New England Patriots. I do not think they'll win the match – they could do it – but I think they keep it close.
Let's hope we have a better album this week at ATS and directly. How about 11-5 for both?
Philadelphia Eagles to Green Bay Packers (-4.5)
The Eagles do not play well with a ton of injuries, and it's a tough challenge for a short week. The Green Bay offensive has not yet seemed clear, but it's the game where it will be. Aaron Rodgers finally has this great match. He lights up the Eagles.
To choose: Packers 30, Eagles 20
Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons (-4)
The Titans looked bad the last time after losing to the Jaguars, but they had time to rest. Still, the Falcons have to do it and they are the best team. Losing Keanu Neal will hurt the defense, but not against this attack. The hawks win it.
To choose: Falcons 26, Titans 17
Cleveland Browns (+7) in Baltimore Ravens
It's almost a must for Browns. They would fall to 1-3 with a defeat here and would be in a big hole in the division. They did not seem crisp on the offensive, as the Ravens did with Lamar Jackson. The Baltimore defense has not been the same, but I think it shows up here and that Jackson has another good game, but it's tight.
To choose: Ravens 23, chestnuts 20
The New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+7)
It's a match with two teams 3-0. Am I writing this? Yes, the Bills are unbeaten while they are ready to play against the Patriots. They are good at defense, but face their biggest challenge here. I think they can cope with it. Can Josh Allen manage the Patriots' defense? I think he's fine, but in the end, the Patriots will win a tight match.
To choose: Patriots 23, Bills 21
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Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at the Detroit Lions
It's also a match between two undefeated teams. Lions have a tie, but their start is good. The Chiefs have already won two games on the road, so they can handle the road. Their players will search even faster here in this one. The leaders gather another large number with Patrick Mahomes.
To choose: Chiefs 34, Lions 24
Carolina Panthers (+4.5) at Houston Texans
The Panthers play consecutive games on the road and Kyle Allen will again be the quarterback. They sacked Kyler Murray eight times last week and I would expect that before also attacking Deshaun Watson. Carolina will keep the game tight, but the Texans will win.
To choose: Texans 21, Panthers 20
Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
The Raiders are back on the road after a terrible performance last week in Minnesota. The Colts were impressive in beating the Falcons while Jacoby Brissett improved from week to week. Oakland's defense has problems, so look for a colts head here.
To choose: Colts 29, Raiders 17
Los Angeles Chargers (-16) at the Miami Dolphins
It's a long trip for the Chargers for a game early in the game. It's always difficult. This week it will not be. The dolphins are terrible. Yes, they showed fighting last week, but they are much more sober. Chargers gain this easily.
To choose: Chargers 31, Dolphins 10
Washington Redskins (+3) at the New York Giants
Can Daniel Jones rely on his first start in a division game? He was impressive against Tampa Bay and he had the Redskins a week. The defense of the Giants, however, has problems that should make a shootout. Look for a lot of points that giants take.
To choose: Giants 31, Redskins 30
Seattle Seahawks (-5) at the Cardinals of Arizona
The Seahawks have just suffered a home defeat against the Saints. But they should bounce back here. Arizona's defense is bad and Russell Wilson will have a big day throwing it. It will be ugly.
To choose: Seahawks 33, Cardinals 21
Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Los Angeles Rams (-10)
The Rams are 3-0 and play well on both sides of the ball, while the Bucs just lost and face a tough road trip. Look for Jared Goff to enlighten secondary Bucs as Daniel Jones did last week. Rams easy.
To choose: Rams 35, Bucs 17
Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) at the Chicago Bears
Is it a big game? Of course that's it. This is not good news for the Vikings and Kirk Cousins. The Bears have been playing for a short week, but this defense will stop the Cousins. The Bears will not get much on the offensive either, but they will win a tight match.
To choose: Bear 17, Vikings 16
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) at the Denver Broncos
Lost to Gardner Minshew-mania is just how impressive the Jaguars' front was last week against the Titans in recording nine sacks. This is a Denver offensive line that is not very good. Joe Flacco and Minshew will play well. The Jaguars will win a tough match on the road.
To choose: Jaguars 20, Broncos 13
Dallas Cowboys (-2,5) at New Orleans Saints
The Cowboys are racing right now, but it's a big step forward in the competition in a tough place to play. The Saints won a big road victory last week against the Seahawks with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. But this time, even at home, I think the Cowboys are too good at the moment. Dak Prescott is coming back.
To choose: Cowboys 28, Saints 23
Cincinnati Bengals at the Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)
What game dog we have Monday night. Both teams have a record of 0-3 and the Steelers start Mason Rudolph at the quarterback for Ben Roethlisberger. Someone must win, right? I will accompany the home team and Rudolph will win his first NFL victory as a starter.
To choose: Steelers 27, Bengals 20
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