John Harbaugh does everything right

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Illustration for the article titled John Harbaugh doing everything correctly

There is still a lot of season, but Ravens fans should be satisfied with the way head coach John Harbaugh has handled the situation for three games. Baltimore built an offensive that seems perfectly suited to the many gifts of quarterback Lamar Jackson, and Harbaugh has shown aggressive play in the game based on truly sound analytical thinking. This should serve the Ravens well in what is becoming a shabby north of the AFC.

The Ravens have spent the off season signaling that they would seek to return to a race-centric attack, with Jackson and his ability to run as a point of support. But that's not exactly what Greg Roman's new coordinator did. The Ravens are convinced that Jackson's ability is a double threat – and they are mixing the situation.

According to data from analyst Warren Sharp, the Ravens ran the ball one ton first and second (41 rushes, 19 assists) during the second week of their overfished Dolphins series. But in their last two games, their passing ratio in the first attempts was 64:54. In all, Jackson has already scored 27 yards for 172 yards and one touchdown. But he also took a lot of shots on goal, with 21 attempts 20 yards or more (second in the NFL, behind Matt Stafford, 22, according to Pro Football Focus), and eight finals (fifth tied). According to the new generation statistics, Jackson's overhead yards are 10.7, the fifth total in the league. The Ravens also combined this type of gambling threat with a good dose of action: Per PFF, Jackson falsified 33.6% of his losses, placing him in the seventh row of skilled smugglers. Ravens are less interested in balance than in the full use of what Jackson does best. And for now, Jackson's Total QBR (80.2%) ranks only behind Dak Prescott (90.4), Patrick Mahomes (89.6) and Tom Brady (85.6). Which is pretty good company.

It's not just about game design. Harbaugh also chose to be aggressive using a forward-looking risk assessment of the fourth down and two-point conversion. By professional football match, the Ravens have already made seven times their fourth run, tied with the Eagles and Dolphins for second place in the league and are only eight ahead. Like dolphins, Washington always plays from behind. But the Eagles used such an aggressive strategy in fourth place to win the damn Super Bowl two years ago. This is what many intelligent analyzes have been asking teams to do for years.

Faced with defeat on Sunday against the big power leaders, knowing that he would need to maximize each possession, Harbaugh scored the fourth defeat four times, converting three. The first was a fourth and third in the Chiefs' 9-yard line during the initial possession of Baltimore. The result was a Jackson race for a first try. In the next play, the Ravens were in the end zone. The next instance was at the beginning of the second quarter, the Ravens led 7-6 and faced a fourth and one against 34. A transfer to Gus Edwards using the shotgun helped to bring down the first goal. Four games later, facing a quarter and two out of 47, Baltimore tries again. A pass from Jackson to Marquise Brown fell incomplete. And in the fourth quarter, at 17 points, the Ravens successfully executed a fourth and a fifth among the 27 leaders, which allowed the crew to lead a shot that resulted in a touchdown.

It is true that the failure of the fourth attempt in the second quarter allowed the Chiefs to play the ball in the middle of the field and Kansas City scored a goal on that possession. But the risk / reward of the probability of winning (or the chance of winning, depending on the statistical model used) dictated that Harbaugh make the right choice twice in the second quarter.

A similar approach informed Harbaugh's decision to go on a score of 2 after the Ravens reduced the Chiefs' lead to 30-19, with 12:27 remaining in the fourth quarter. This attempt was also unsuccessful, but the Ravens' chances of winning by getting the extra point was only slightly higher than it would have been with a failed attempt, and well below what it would have been with a successful pointer.

Harbaugh, to his credit, endorsed his decisions and substantiated them by explaining the strong quantitative reasoning behind them.

I recommend watching this video to get an idea of what was asked and how Harbaugh answered each question. But for those who are not inclined to see him, here is what he had to say:

"I understand the numbers and how they work. It's very detailed and well thought out. I think I was pretty clear about that last night, but we stick to our decisions. Our decisions gave us the best chance to win the match, in this particular match. These are not average league choices. These are determined by this game and for this game specifically, in this place; time is even taken into account. Many factors are calculated mathematically. And that's why we did it. It was not a positional game on the field. It was a possession game. Making the most of each possession was what mattered and that's what we were trying to do, and for the most part we did a very good job. "

And:

"Having nine points gives you a much better chance of winning than taking overtime. You still have a chance to do it with the other two. And if, for whatever reason, they score a goal or touchdown, it also increases your chances. So, even though you may think that you must be 10, it's the right thing to do if you want to work overtime. This is not the thing to do if you want to win the match in regulation, and that's what we were trying to do. "

And:

"The analysis guys will tell you that I'm not close enough to the analysis. They will tell you that I do a lot more than my analysis, and that's the case. Because the flow of the game, the atmosphere of the game, the situations in which you have been … all this is something, as a coach, you have a real meaning. So I will go much further against the analysis, in terms of 50/50 close calls. But in a game like that, it was decisions that gave us the best chance to win and put us in the best position to win the game, no question. If we had not made these decisions, especially the fourth downhill decisions, we would not have been to a score at the end of the game. Period."

One last hit: after shooting in 33-28 with 2:01 to go (and failing on another two-run test, Harbaugh asked Justin Tucker to score a free kick goal at the send-off, which allowed a fair shot that prevented any time to escape.There was only a timeout to the Ravens, so the maneuver gave them extra time with a warning of two minutes. That did not work in the end because the Chiefs made a first try and salted the match, it was not Harbaugh again working to maximize his team's opportunities in a match in which she would need all.

Ravens kicked home to save time

It's usually much more fun to humiliate coaches for clock errors than to congratulate them for managing them …