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Outside of Notre Dame 's program, many expected the Irish to make a statement one way or another during last Saturday' s prime – time match against Georgia. Coach Brian Kelly said Monday, however, that is when his team will really prepare for the rest of the season – against Virginia 18 on Saturday, a week after a 23-17 loss to the Bulldogs.
"I think our team is going to define who she is this week because she's just out of a game where she was disappointed with her performance," Kelly said, "so she's lucky to do whatever thing about it.
"I have the good feeling that they will react in the right way." Again, it's easier to define who you are after the return of a defeat at any time. after a victory. "
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The Irish need to win.
Notre Dame is one of 12 teams with at least a 1% chance of placing in the top four, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, which aims to answer the question: Who will play in the playoffs on the day of the selection? While undefeated teams such as Penn State and Florida do not steal the headlines of the playoffs, they could validate their victory with more impressive victories later. The percentages reflect the status of each team before the fifth week. They will therefore change continuously with the season.
They could change drastically this weekend if Virginia defeats Notre Dame, Penn State loses to Maryland on Friday night or Clemson stumbles in North Carolina. This is a Washington-USC loser losing play, which already has a defeat and has failed to qualify for this list.
The calculations can not take into account the human element of the selection committee consisting of 13 members, but each of the 20 semi-finalists of the playoffs has common traits: difficult schedules, wins against ranked opponents, Heisman hopes, 15 best margins and 15 top offensive or defensive efficiency rankings, to name a few.
Here's how these top candidates compare to the trends of the semifinalists of the past. Trends provided by ESPN Stats & Information research:
Chance to make series: 76.6%
Chance to win the title: 24.5%
Trends in their favor: Playoff experience, the second rank in defensive efficiency and a quarterback full of hope for Heisman in Trevor Lawrence. The Tigers are going to need these three things to finish unbeaten and overcome an otherwise weak conference schedule. Clemson could, however, win two victories against SEC teams if he manages to punctuate his resume with a win on the road against his rival, South Carolina, who goes along with his loss to Texas A & A. Mr.
Chance to make series: 70.4%
Chance to win the title: 28.4%
Trends in their favor: Nick Saban and Tua Tagovailoa, to start. Alabama is also No. 2 in terms of offensive efficiency and No. 3 in terms of defensive efficiency. Although statistics have been completed at this point compared to unrated competition, the strength of the schedule will be improved with the matches against Texas A & M, LSU and Auburn.
Chance to make series: 59.1%
Chance to win the title: 14.7%
Trends in their favor: The Buckeyes have the star power with Justin Fields and J.K. Dobbins, and the strength of the calendar is also an asset. The remaining line of their opponents is ranked No. 10 in the country and includes four ranked teams. Like other semifinalists, the state of Ohio has been dominant on both sides, ranking in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiency. While the state of Ohio has gone through the first four weeks, it has mostly gone home against unclassified competitors, but Saturday's trip to Nebraska is unlikely to be easy. The first real opportunity to make a playoff statement will be Oct. 26 against Wisconsin, the toughest match remaining on the schedule, according to FPI.
Kansas State's No. 24 Wildcats by Chris Klieman will face Mike Gundy, Tylan Wallace and Oklahoma State in a Big 12 clash (at 7 pm ET Saturday), only on ESPN +. Look here
Chance to make series: 46.9%
Chance to win the title: ten%
Trends in their favor: Prior experience in the playoffs, the SEC crossover program associated with a victory over Notre Dame, and the top 10 rankings in attack and defense. The Bulldogs pass the eye test, but they also have to deal with Auburn and Texas A & M to help offset the weakness of the SEC East lineup. Do not forget that some members of the selection committee considered Georgia as a two-game team that did not win the SEC. The Bulldogs have a margin of error, thanks to their victory over Notre Dame.
Chance to make series: 36.9%
Chance to win the title: 5.3%
Trends in their favor: Experience in the playoffs and again the No. 1 ranking in offensive efficiency, this time under quarterback Jalen Hurts. Last season, OR needed his powerful offensive to counterbalance his # 92 defensive efficiency rankings, but this season the Sooners have improved under the coordination of the first year, Alex Grinch, and are No. 26 defensively in three games. The Sooners need the rest of the Big 12s to intensify, as the No. 11 Texas and No. 24 Kansas are their only remaining opponents.
Chance to make series: 33.5%
Chance to win the title: 7.1%
Trends in their favor: The win on the road in Texas gave LSU a run in advance, as the 20 semifinal participants entered the World Cup season with at least two wins over their ranked opponents. AP. The Tigers still have four ranked opponents, which gives them the seventh toughest schedule in the country. Quarterback Joe Burrow is this week's number 3 Heisman Watch and 16 of the last 20 playoff contestants have seen a player rank among the top 10 Heisman Trophy votes. LSU is also No. 3 in the country in terms of offensive efficiency and leads the country with an average of 57 points per game.
Chance to make series: 19.5%
Chance to win the title: 2.4%
Trends in their favor: The Badgers have the power of star in running Jonathan Taylor, No. 4 Heisman Watch this week, is in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiency. What they miss is a non-conference victory against an opponent of Power 5 (South Florida, Central Michigan and Kent State). So they need the rest of the Big Ten to produce ranked opponents and take advantage of the opposite pitch against Michigan State. and Iowa. If the Badgers' only loss finishes on the Buckeyes road, they could have a chance to redeem themselves by beating the Ohio State for the Big Ten title.
Chance to make series: 17.9%
Chance to win the title: 2.3%
Trends in their favor: There will not be any if the Irish can not beat Virginia this weekend. With victories against Louisville and New Mexico, Notre Dame can not check a lot of boxes for the moment, apart from an 8th ranked defense in efficiency. ESPN's REIT expects the Irish to win all remaining matches, but Notre Dame needs Virginia, USC and Michigan to maintain their rank. Last season, Notre Dame, unbeaten, finished 4th in ESPN's audience strength, one of the most statistically accurate correlations to rank among the top four of the committee. At present, Notre Dame is number 22 of the SOR.
Chance to make series: 15%
Chance to win the title: 2.1%
Trends in their favor: Calendar, calendar, calendar. If the committee met today, Auburn would likely be among the top four because of wins against No. 13 Oregon and No. 23 Texas A & M. The Tigers are No. 1 in the standings before Saturday's home game against the state of Mississippi. Auburn must capitalize on home games against teams that he should defeat because the ESPN REIT gives the Tigers less than a 50% chance of winning against Florida, LSU, and Georgia. Alabama.
Chance to make series: 7.3%
Chance to win the title: 0.7%
Trends in their favor: The Nittany Lions have a non-conference victory against a Power 5 opponent (Pitt unrated), and they also have the pedigree of the coach, since 17 of the last 20 semifinalists had a head coach who had already won a conference title. The team of James Franklin won the Big Ten in 2016 – but was out of the top four because of defeats against Pitt and Michigan. PSU will play a tough game Friday night in Maryland, and he will have to win on the road this season to be in the top four. The Nittany Lions also visit States No. 14 (Iowa), No. 25 (Michigan) and No. 5 (Ohio).
Chance to make series: seven%
Chance to win the title: 0.6%
Trends in their favor: Oregon is leading the Pac-12 marker standings and is 14th in the scoring chart (28 points per game), and 18 of the last 20 semifinalists have entered the tournament season as one of the top 15 on a national level. Most of these points, however, came in a 77-6 win over Nevada and a 35-3 win over Montana. The Ducks are also No. 11 in defensive efficiency, but they will likely have to come out victorious (including the title game Pac-12) to qualify for the top four. They have a week off to get ready for the October 5 home game against unbeaten Cal. ESPN's REIT encourages Oregon to win each of the remaining games. If the Ducks can do it, they will be right despite losing to Auburn.
Chance to make series: 6.6%
Chance to win the title: 0.8%
Trends in their favor: The undefeated Gators did not win much, if any, in playoff contention and were rightly eclipsed by Georgia in the SEC-East, but regarding the playoff trends, they are in better shape as Notre Dame and Penn State. The Gators have the Power 5 non-conference power to defeat Miami in the opening game of the season and rank 4th in the record breaking strength. Florida is also No. 14 in terms of defensive efficiency and No. 12 in terms of timing.
Just missed the cut: Washington Huskies (0.9%)
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