Clippers are the ultimate playoff test for Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic made four turnovers in the opening two minutes of Game 1 against the Clippers on Monday. That was all the adjustment period he needed to acclimate to the NBA playoffs. Los Angeles was meant to be the ultimate test for the sophomore MVP contender. The Clips defense is built around the type of long, athletic wings (Kawhi Leonard and Paul George) that don’t exist in the EuroLeague.

Doncic wasn’t perfect in his first look at the playoffs. He finished with 11 turnovers (as many as the Clippers) and couldn’t make enough plays on the straight, a familiar problem for Dallas, to avoid a 118-110 loss. But Doncic has always had the strongest playoff debut in NBA history (42 points on 27 shots) while registering seven rebounds and nine assists.

It doesn’t matter who keeps it. He’s too big, too skillful, and too smart to be contained by a single player. Doncic, at 6 foot 7 and 220 pounds, is just as strong as Kawhi and George. His most impressive game of the night came when he was isolated against Leonard at the top of the sideline with two minutes left in the fourth quarter. How many more point guards could send the final double MVP flying across the lane with just a shoulder nudge?

Doncic’s power is one of the most underrated parts of his game. Patrick Beverley, a former first-team All Defense point guard, was first assigned to the Mavericks star. But there isn’t much that someone as short as Beverley (6ft 1m, 185lbs) can do to disturb him. Doncic hit him several times on his way to the rim:

He can score on anyone. But what makes Doncic special is that he doesn’t have to. The 21-year-old has clearly read the LeBron James post-season playbook. He always tries to find the weak link in the opposing defense. Nearly half of his offensive possessions against the Clippers (48.7%) came as a ball handler in the pick-and-roll. Not only is he at his best when attacking a scrambled defense, but these games also allow him to choose exactly who he wants to attack.

His main victim in the first game was Clippers starting center Ivica Zubac. Doncic knew he could always create an open shot for himself or his teammates when he was driving on the heavy 7ft. Even when Los Angeles rotated to stop the initial drive, it was only a matter of time before Dallas, who had the best offense in NBA history during the regular season, found the man open:

Clippers coach Doc Rivers had no choice but to bench Zubac, only playing him 22 minutes and not putting him back in the game after the halfway point of the third quarter.

But all of that only gave Doncic someone else to target. The Clippers switched almost all of the perimeter screens to keep it from having too much room on its drives. So Doncic just probed and probed until he found a match he liked. If he couldn’t attack taller, slower men, he made do with smaller guards, like Reggie Jackson:

Doncic is almost match-proof. He can attack any defender from anywhere on the ground. It doesn’t matter whether his shot is stopped on any given night, because he can still reach the free throw line. There’s a reason he’s so often compared to James Harden. He shot 14 of 15 from the foul line in Game 1, scoring one point behind the entire Clippers team (15 of 20) from the strip. He’s not afraid to chase fouls and call the officials if they don’t give him a friendly whistle. The irony of Kristaps Porzingis being sent off in Game 1 is that Doncic puts pressure on officials much more often than on his teammate. He even admitted he was doing it too earlier this season. How often Doncic arrives at the line will be heavily contested not only in this series, but throughout his career.

Dallas puts the defenses in impossible positions. Each player in their rotation is a knocked down shooter. Doncic can dictate any game he wants, and the defense can’t send an assist without creating an open shot for someone else on the 3-point line. Once that happens, he’s got the size and the vision to make any passage in the book:

The only backlash from an opposing defense is trying to give Doncic as little mismatch as possible. Los Angeles eventually downsized to the rosters with Marcus Morris, a 6-foot-8, 230-pound forward, in the center. They closed the game with a formation they hadn’t used all season, playing three wings (Morris, Leonard and George) and two guards (Beverley and Williams).

The Clippers need Montrezl Harrell, who missed the classification games by mourning the loss of his grandmother, back 100%. He was rusty in Game 1, with just six points and two rebounds in 15 minutes. Harrell isn’t an elite defenseman, but he’s got the right combination of height (6ft 7in, 240lb) and speed not to be overwhelmed by Doncic. Playing Leonard, George, Morris and Harrell together is the closest thing to a Doncic-proof roster that exists in the NBA. But even that is not enough. The Clippers don’t have five defenders with the physical tools to face Doncic. And he only needs one weak link to attack.

The best chance for Clips to slow down Doncic is to use his own playbook against him. The Mavs hide Doncic as much as possible on defense. But there is no hiding it if his man screens for the ball. George (27 points) committed murder on Monday when he flipped Doncic over to him. The Mavs star just doesn’t have the speed to challenge George’s jumper and stay ahead of him:

Doncic also doesn’t want to fight screens and chase shooters on the pitch. Getting into his legs and forcing him to work on defense should make it harder for him to dominate at the other end of the pitch.

This is where his youth comes in. He always lets his attack influence his defense. Perhaps the biggest game in Game 1 came with just over two minutes to go in the fourth quarter. It started when Seth Curry made a quick transition 3 before Doncic could touch the ball. The Clippers brought the ball back up the field, but Doncic was so angry he never found his man, which allowed him to knock down an open 3:

Doncic has a supreme self-confidence which can be both a gift and a curse. He still wants the ball because he so confident he can make the right play. It’s hard to argue given the success he has enjoyed in his young career. Doncic trusts his teammates to make open shots once he finds them. But he’s still learning to trust them to make their own decisions.

He is the most dominant player in the NBA. Here is the ranking of hits and possession time in the bubble (entry into action on Wednesday):

Harden has a reputation for being someone who holds the ball the entire game and doesn’t allow anyone else to get into a rhythm. But the difference between Doncic and Harden on this list (21.6 touches per game) is as wide as the gap between Harden and the 31st-ranked player on this list, Dejounte Murray.

Part of this difference can be explained by the way Mavs are built. They built a team of point shooters who could play against Doncic. Porzingis is not Russell Westbrook. It’s the perfect second option next to Doncic as he can score in clusters without needing to hold the ball.

But just because Porzingis can doing that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s better for the Mavericks. Doncic should empower his co-star by giving up the ball. A defense designed to slow Doncic will struggle against the 7-foot-3 Porzingis, and vice versa. If the Clippers use a smaller front area of ​​Morris and Harrell to switch screens on Doncic, that leaves no one big enough to bother Porzingis.

Porzingis didn’t have a huge impact on Game 1 even before his controversial ejection, finishing with 14 points on 3 of 9 shots in 20 minutes. The Mavs will need their two stars to dominate if they are to upset the Clippers. Passing part of the offensive to Porzingis would make it easier for both of them.

The next step in Doncic’s development is to improve his outside shot. He’s shot just 31.6 percent from 3 on 8.9 attempts per game this season. He takes too many difficult ones. Doncic has averaged 1.3 catch-and-shoot 3 per game this season compared to 7.4 3 off dribbling. Letting other players create punches for him would increase his percentages while diversifying the Mavs’ attack.

Their offense collapsed in games this season. Dallas has the no. 26 NBA offensive rating (99.2) when the score is under five in the final five minutes. It’s not that Doncic isn’t engaged. He already has a long list of last minute shots on his NBA resume. But it’s hard to take so much offensive workload for the entire game without eventually wearing out, especially when the defense can take care of stopping you in the final moments.

The hardest playoff lesson for a young superstar like Doncic is that more isn’t always better. The key to winning the NBA playoffs is to do more with less.