Trump’s powerful ally Senator Graham could be ‘in trouble’ with South Carolina reelection

Senator Lindsey Graham is a big deal in Washington. He is chairman of the powerful Senate Judiciary Committee, a media-savvy Republican leader, and President Trump’s golf partner. Graham brings attention and influence on Capitol Hill on everything from national defense to judicial confirmation.

But back at home in South Carolina, the Republican is, surprisingly, politically vulnerable. He faces a well-funded Democrat, Jaime Harrison, who has dominated the airwaves with commercials about his life story of overcoming poverty. He portrayed Graham as a politician “living tall” while South Carolinians suffer. “What happened to Lindsey Graham?” an ad says.

The rise of a viable Democratic challenger, Graham’s much-publicized membership in Trump, the COVID-19 crisis, and the Black Lives Matter unrest have all combined to create a perfect storm. Graham is in his toughest fight to win reelection yet, according to South Carolina political experts.

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“We can be an election away from a Democrat having an upheaval [in GOP-leaning South Carolina], but I will say that Jaime Harrison is closer than a Democrat has been in a long time for such an upheaval to happen, ”said Todd Shaw, associate professor of political science and African American studies at the ‘University of South Carolina.

A recent poll raised alarms by showing Harrison tied with Graham in South Carolina, a GOP stronghold that has not elected a Democratic state since 2006, and that was for the superintendent of education.

Graham “has been a staunch defender of national defense and a leader of his party for 17 years, but has Lindsey Graham’s allegiance to the president put him in danger?” Quinnipiac University poll analyst Tim Malloy said when announcing the results of his poll. “The numbers suggest his tenure on the Hill is in trouble.”

But Graham’s campaign says their internal poll shows the Republican is on track to win his fourth term in the Senate. They said Harrison was too liberal for the state and Graham’s priorities aligned with those of the people of South Carolina.

“It will be a race with very clear choices,” said TW Arrighi, communications director for Graham’s re-election campaign. “Socialism versus free enterprise. Cover up the police or support law enforcement. Government controlled health care versus patient controlled health care. A weakened army against the strongest army in a generation. While Jaime Harrison may have Liberals in California fund his campaign, the people of South Carolina support Senator Graham.

Graham, a close friend of the late Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., Who ran into Trump, once positioned himself as a fellow maverick who was ready to work across the aisle with Democrats on thorny issues like immigration. Before Trump was elected president, Graham criticized the former reality TV host in 2015 as “a religious, xenophobic and xenophobic fanatic.”

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But since Trump came to power, Graham has made the pragmatic choice to draw closer to Trump and, at times, fiercely defended the president in the face of harsh criticism. Graham’s transformation has angered some disgruntled Republicans and Independents who view the change as a betrayal of McCain. And now they have a viable alternative to Harrison.

“After 25 years in Washington, people just can’t recognize him [Graham] “Said Guy King, director of communications for Harrison’s campaign.” He is a person who far prefers to play political games in Washington rather than championing the issues and challenges facing South Carolinians every day. day.

Harrison grew up poor in Orangeburg, SC, the son of a single teenage mother and raised by his grandparents. He overcame the challenges and went to Yale University and Georgetown Law, and then got involved in Democratic Party politics.

Harrison is the former chairman of the South Carolina Democratic Party, a former lobbyist and an associate chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

Danielle Vinson, professor of politics and international affairs at Furman University in Greenville, SC, said Harrison’s attack on the new Graham had been nuanced and effective.

“In South Carolina, you’re not going to win a statewide race by attacking Republicans, per se, they’re the biggest voting bloc in the state,” Vinson said. “And so you have to be more nuanced about that and he really did. He’s basically not condemning old Lindsey Graham. He’s condemning what we’ve seen in Lindsey Graham the last three and a half years. And I think that. it resonates in parts of the state in a way that might surprise Graham.

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Trump is still popular in South Carolina among Republicans – and the Quinnipiac poll would suggest the president is doing better than Graham statewide. Graham has not given up on his close relationship with the president and touted his influence as a positive gain for his constituents.

“Sen. Graham being a close friend and confidant of President Trump is a major asset to South Carolina, ”Arrighi said. It was South Carolina that helped propel Donald Trump to the presidency, and South Carolina will propel him to a second term. ”

But political experts say the recent crises facing the country – coronavirus, economic downturn and demands for racial justice – have made Graham more vulnerable.

Graham’s campaign says the senator used his power to resolve these issues, from holding a police use of force hearing to drafting a pending bill, the US Made Act, that would bring the production of personal protective equipment back to America from China.

“There is no senator who has been more active in fighting the pandemic and reviving our economy than Lindsey Graham,” said Arrighi. , by introducing several bills, Senator Graham shows – by actions – what a leader is. Mr. Harrison has not left his basement for four months.

Shaw, a professor at the University of South Carolina, expects Graham to take a late break after the Republican convention with a lot of ad spending.

Federal fundraising records show Harrison raised nearly $ 29 million in this cycle and more than $ 10 million remains in the bank. Graham still has the financial edge by raising almost $ 31 million and having $ 15 million in cash.

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Participation in November will be key, and political experts predict Democrats will be less tempted to stay home this year and assume a GOP victory is inevitable in South Carolina. If Harrison does manage to secure a thwarted victory, Vinson said it would be a sign of a Blue Wave election.

“It would be huge and it would be amazing,” Vinson said. “It would be bad news for Republicans, along the coast and across the country. I’ll always be stunned if that happens. It’s more possible now than I would have thought six months ago, but this would still be shocking.