Joe Biden’s climate plan could put Paris Agreement goals ‘within reach’, experts say

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To get there, the United States must deliver on Biden’s pledge to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
President-elect’s climate policy includes a $ 1.7 trillion investment in clean energy and green jobs, calls for an end to fossil fuel subsidies and a ban on new oil and gas permits on land public.

The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) – a nonprofit analytical group that tracks government climate action – analyzed the numbers and found that, if completed, Biden’s plan would reduce gas emissions greenhouse effect of about 75 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide by 2050, decreasing global warming by 0.1 ° C by the end of the century.

But the United States cannot do it alone.

To ensure the 1.5 ° C target is within reach, China must meet its commitment to become carbon neutral by 2060, and the European Union, Japan and South Korea must all meet their climate commitments, said CAT.

This is a huge feat to be achieved, but one which, according to experts, is now within the reach of the planet.

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“This could be a historic tipping point: with the election of Biden, China, the US, the EU, Japan, South Korea – two-thirds of the global economy and over 50% of global greenhouse gas emissions – would have net greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century commitments, ”said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, a CAT partner organization, in a statement.

“These commitments are very close, if not within, consistent trajectories at 1.5 ° C for this set of countries and, for the first time, place the limit of 1.5 ° C of the Paris Agreement at at hand. “

Currently, the world is expected to warm by 2.7 ° C by the end of the century, according to the CAT, which will lead to more extreme storms, heat waves, greater sea level rise and, in in many parts of the world, droughts and more severe extreme rainfall.

The Paris Agreement, a pact signed in 2016 by almost every country in the world, aims to limit global warming to well below 2 ° C and to continue efforts to limit it to 1.5 ° C.

Biden pledged to re-enter the Paris climate agreement – which President Donald Trump left – from his first day in office, and then through “a major diplomatic push”, seeking to “raise the ambitions of the climate goals of the country”.

Biden released a transition website over the weekend that places climate change as a top priority for his administration.

He presented a climate action roadmap for the recovery of Covid-19 which includes investments in infrastructure, the automotive industry, public transport, the energy sector, modernization and aging of buildings. , housing, innovation, agriculture and conservation, and environmental justice.

No longer a leader

The United States is the second biggest polluter in the world, behind China. When Trump announced his intention to withdraw from the Paris agreement, he signaled to the world that America would no longer lead the global fight against climate change – and critics argued that other countries’ efforts were in jeopardy. . Under Trump, dozens of environmental protections were destroyed – many of them were Obama-era guardrails that limited the scope of global warming.
Other big polluters, such as the European Union and China, have indicated they will fill the void. At the United Nations general assembly last month, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that China will aim to become carbon neutral by 2060. And in recent weeks, Japan and South Korea have pledged to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.

CAT said the United States is joining a “wave” of countries around the world now supporting net zero greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century, including 127 countries accounting for 63% of emissions. global.

US election is climate change vote for the whole world

“What can other countries do besides follow this overwhelming trend towards net zero greenhouse gas emissions?” said Niklas Höhne of the NewClimate Institute, a CAT partner organization.

The climate analysis group acknowledged that there was “considerable uncertainty” around their estimates. They include the possibility of contagion effects – that other countries follow suit – and what greenhouse gases are included in the commitments – carbon dioxide or any emissions related to global warming.

Biden could also face strong opposition to his climate goals from opposition lawmakers and his ability to fully implement his climate plan may depend on which party controls a majority in the Senate.

Nonetheless, Hare said that while Biden has a lot of work ahead of him, “he will ride a new wave of global ambition.”

Experts say the United States could now take a new direction in climate negotiations and use its influence to pressure other polluting nations to bolster their own climate ambitions.

Jonathan Pershing, director of the environment program at the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, who was the former special envoy for climate change at the US State Department during the second term of the Obama administration, said it was “essential “That the United States be a world leader in the fight against climate change.

To become a credible leader again, the United States will need to prove that it is implementing these national climate policies and decide what role it will play in bringing the world together around climate solutions, he told CNN last month. .

“I think it does it in many, many different ways. It does it by participating in technical assistance programs for developing countries. It does so by creating important alliances around strong political actions,” Pershing said. “It is not enough to say that I promise you the following things.”

CNN’s Drew Kann contributed reporting.

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