What will Joe Biden do?

TOKYO (AP) – As Asia comes to terms with the reality of a Joe Biden administration, relief and hopes for economic and environmental recovery collide with angst and fears of inattention.

From security to trade to climate change, a powerful American reach extends to almost every corner of Asia-Pacific. During his four years in office, President Donald Trump has shaken the foundations of American relations here by wooing his traditional rivals and attacking his allies with both frequency and pleasure.

Now, as Biden seeks to sort out tumultuous domestic issues, there is widespread concern that Asia will end up being an afterthought. The allies will remain unguarded. The rivals – and in particular China, that huge American competitor for regional supremacy – will do whatever they want.

In the wake of perhaps the most controversial presidency in recent U.S. history, here’s a look at how its aftermath – a Biden White House – will play out in one of the most important regions and most unstable in the world:

CHINA

Biden will likely watch here first.

The two nations are inexorably linked, economically and politically, even as the US military presence in the Pacific shrugs at China’s increased effort to forge its way into what it sees as its natural sphere of influence. .

Under Trump, the two rivals engaged in a trade war and a heated exchange of verbal hostilities. A Biden administration could have a calming effect on these frayed ties, according to Alexander Huang, professor of strategic studies at Tamkang University in Taipei and former Taiwanese national security official.

“I would expect Biden to return to the Obama-era more moderate and less confrontational approach to China-US relations,” he said.

Greater openness to China could prompt Washington to downplay its support for Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, without necessarily reducing the United States’ commitment to ensuring the island can defend itself against Chinese threats, Huang said.

Retired chemical engineer Tang Ruiguo echoed a view shared by many Chinese about the unstoppable decline of the United States from global superpower status. “It doesn’t matter who gets elected, I think America can go into turmoil and turmoil and its development will be affected,” Tang said.

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KOREA

Say goodbye to the peaks.

Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un have gone from unprecedented threats of three-sided warfare, which, although high profile media events, have done nothing to rid the North of its long-range spiked missiles. nuclear banned.

Kim must now adjust to a man his propaganda services once condemned as a “mad dog” who “must be beaten to death.”

Biden, for his part, called Kim a “butcher” and a “thug,” and said Trump had given a dictator legitimacy with “three made-for-television summits” that produced no progress on disarmament.

Biden endorsed a slower meeting-based approach and said he would be prepared to tighten sanctions against the North until he takes concrete denuclearization steps.

North Korea, which has yet to show a willingness to completely get rid of a nuclear arsenal that Kim might see as its best guarantee of survival, prefers a summit-led process that gives it a better chance of pocketing instant concessions that would otherwise be rejected by lower level diplomats.

For South Korea, the new president is likely to show more respect for his treaty ally than Trump, who has unilaterally cut back on joint military training and constantly complained about the cost of the 28,500 US troops stationed in the south to defend against Korea. North.

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JAPAN

The resignation this year of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ended one of Trump’s few close and productive relationships with a foreign leader.

It is hoped in Tokyo that Biden’s more progressive green policies will help Japanese green businesses and that he takes a hard line on China, with which Japan is in constant competition.

But there is also concern.

Under Biden, “America cannot afford to deal with other countries, and it must prioritize its own reconstruction,” said Hiro Aida, Kansai University professor of politics and politics. modern American history.

As Biden is consumed with his country’s many domestic issues, from racial unrest to concerns about the economy, healthcare and the coronavirus, Japan could be left alone as China pursues its territorial ambitions and Korea North is expanding its nuclear efforts, according to Peter Tasker, a Tokyo-based analyst at Arcus Research.

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AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND

Australian Tory Prime Minister who was in power when Trump was elected, Malcolm Turnbull, may have spoken for many when he tweeted his congratulations to Biden: “What a relief you have won.”

It is hoped that Biden will do better than the Trump administration, which granted Australian manufacturers exemptions from U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs in 2018 before changing their mind a year later.

For New Zealand, there are aspirations to sell more milk and beef under a US administration that is more open to free trade.

New Zealand and other Pacific countries are also hoping Biden could help ease tensions with China.

New Zealand found itself wedged between the two superpowers, relying on China as its main trading partner while maintaining traditional defense and intelligence ties with the United States.

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INDIA

Not much will change with the security and defense ties shared by India and the United States. But a Biden administration could mean a much closer examination of India’s recent records for human rights and religious freedom, both of which have been largely ignored by Trump.

According to Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia program at the Washington-based Wilson Center, Biden should also be more critical of the Hindu nationalist policies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which critics say oppress Indian minorities.

Countries will work more closely to counterbalance China, a common rival, Kugelman said. A Biden White House will “not risk upsetting a country that is widely regarded in Washington as the United States’ best strategic bet in South Asia,” he said.

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SOUTH EAST ASIA

Some countries in the region, like Malaysia, have pivoted to China due to massive investment and the focus on economic recovery, and “it will take time for the United States to restore confidence,” said Bridget Welsh, Honorary Research Associate at the University of Nottingham in Malaysia. “American power will never be what it was.”

Biden is also likely to be more suspicious in his dealings with strongman leaders like Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines, Prayut Chan-o-cha of Thailand and Hun Sen of Cambodia, said Richard Heydarian, analyst in the Philippines.

“A more cautious Biden could also mean a degree of stability in relations with delicate allies and partners in Southeast Asia and the region,” he said. “We will see American leadership, but much more in conjunction with regional actors and powers, notably Japan, Australia, India, European powers” ​​and South East Asia.

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Foster Klug, AP news director for Korea, Japan, Australia and the South Pacific, has been covering Asia since 2005.

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Associated Press editors Kim Tong-hyung in Seoul, South Korea, Mari Yamaguchi in Tokyo, Rod McGuirk in Canberra, Australia, Nick Perry in Wellington, New Zealand, Eileen Ng in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia and Sheikh Saaliq in New Delhi contributed to this report.