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It’s not often that you see a first-place team in the NFL open up like an underdog, but that’s exactly what will happen this week in two different games.
In the opening odds of Week 10, the Seahawks and Bills both opened as an underdog. Although the Seahawks are currently 6-2 and tied for the best NFC record, they opened as a 1.5-point underdog for the Rams. As for the Bills, even though they’re the only NFL team that currently has seven wins, they opened as a 1.5-point underdog to the Cardinals.
The fact that both teams are a 1.5 point underdog is notable, as before this week there had only been two other games in the entire season where one team was favored by exactly 1.5 points. In week three, the Bills were favored by 1.5 over the Rams and ended up winning a wild 35-32. In Week 8, the Panthers were favored by 1.5 over the Falcons and ended up losing 25-17.
Besides the Seahawks and Bills there are two other teams that currently have winning records that both opened as an underdog this week and those two teams are the Colts (to the Titans) and the Bears (to the Vikings).
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With that in mind, let’s move on to the rest of the first odds for week 10.
NFL Week 10 Early Odds
(All lines from William Hill Sportsbook unless otherwise noted, all Sunday matches unless otherwise noted)
Colts (5-3) at the Titans (6-2), Thursday
Opening line: Titans, -2.5 points
The Colts have dominated this series for almost a decade. Since the start of the 2012 season, the Colts are 13-3 in a row against the Titans and 10-4-2 ATS. One of the reasons you might want to stay away from the Colts is that they are 2-7 in a row in their last nine road games (3-5-1 PEC). The Colts are also just 3-11 straight in their last 14 prime-time games (6-7-1 ATS). As for the Titans, they are 3-1 both straight and ATS in their last four home games, including Sunday’s 24-17 victory over the Bears where they covered as a favorite by 6 points.
Opening line: Brown, -2.5 points
The Browns are probably not a team you want to bet on right now and that’s because they have played three straight games without covering the spread. They are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games. As for the Texans, although they beat Jacksonville on Sunday, it’s actually the only team they’ve been able to beat this season. For eight weeks, the Texans are 2-0 in a row against the Jaguars and 0-6 against everyone and the Browns fall in the everyone category. On the ATS side, the Texans are 1-7 on the season, which is tied with the Jets for the second-worst mark in the NFL this year.
Washington (2-6) to Lions (3-5)
Opening line: Lions, -5.5 points
Washington has played four games this year against non-divisional opponents and in those four games they have gone 0-3-1 ATS and 0-4 straight. Not only did they lose all four games, but they lost them by an average of 15.8 points. If you’re considering betting on the Lions, they probably won’t feel like a good option either: for the 2020 season, the Lions are 0-3 both on the straight and against the spread in games. home.
Jaguars (1-7) at Packers (6-2)
Opening line: Packers, -13.5 points
Going back to Week 3, the Jaguars have been one of the worst teams in the NFL. Not only are they 0-6 straight, but they’re also 1-5 ATS in that range. As for the Packers, they are 6-2 CEP this season, which is tied for the highest score in the NFL. That being said, the Packers are only 1-5 ATS in the last six games where they’ve been favored by double-digit numbers. In 2019, the Packers were favored by 13 or more a total of two times and they went 0-2 ATS in those games (2-0 in a row). The Packers are coming off a bye for this game, which we’re only mentioning, because the Packers have lost three straight games after a regular season bye. As for the Jaguars, they are 0-6 on the straight and 1-4-1 ATS in the last six games where they were an underdog by 10 points or more.
Opening line: Eagles, -3 points
While the Eagles have been able to dominate the Giants in recent years, they haven’t always been able to cover themselves against New York. The Eagles have won 10 of their last 11 games against the Giants, but they are only 5-6 ATS in those games. Returning to Week 7, the Eagles failed to cover as a 5-point favorites in a 22-21 win over New York. As for the Giants, they’ve been horrible at home recently, going 3-11 both straight and ATS in their last 14 games played at MetLife Stadium.
Buccaneers (6-3) to Panthers (3-6)
Opening line: Buccaneers, -4.5 points
The Buccaneers are 3-1 both straight and ATS in their last four games against the Panthers, but that doesn’t necessarily mean you should skip them all over here. One of the reasons to love the Panthers is that the home underdogs in divisional games are a very impressive 11-2 ATS this season. In addition, Teddy Bridgewater is 15-4 CEP in his career after a direct loss. This includes Sunday’s coverage against the Chiefs after a direct loss to the Falcons in Week 8. In his career, Bridgewater is 32-11 CEP (74.4% coverage rate), which is the best ever. quarterback starting point since 2000.
Opening line: Raiders, -4.5 points
The Raiders haven’t dominated the Broncos on the scoreboard in recent years, but they’ve covered. In the last five games between these two teams, the Raiders have posted a 5-0 ATS record (3-2 in a row). That being said, the Broncos are 7-3 CEP in their last 10 road games dating back to last year. In addition, the Raiders are 2-7-1 CEP in their last 10 games where they have been favored by three or more points.
Opening line: Dolphins, -3 points
As of Week 5 of last season, the Dolphins are 15-5 ATS, which is the highest score of any team in the NFL during that span. The Dolphins are also 6-1 CEP in their last seven games. As for the Chargers, they will head to the Eastern time zone where they have had some serious success. In their last nine games in the East, they are 7-2 both straight and ATS. One of the two losses came in Week 4 when Los Angeles took a 17-point lead in a 38-31 loss to the Buccaneers. The Chargers are also 12-4-2 CEP in their last 18 road games.
Bills (7-2) at Cardinals (5-3)
Opening line: Cardinals, -1.5 points
For the second week in a row, the Bills face an NFC team, which they’re probably very excited about and that’s because Buffalo dominates them. Including Sunday’s victory over Seattle, the Bills have won six of their last seven games against NFC teams. As for the Cardinals, they are 3-7 in a row in their last 10 games against AFC teams, including Sunday’s loss to the Dolphins.
Seahawks (6-2) at Rams (5-3)
Opening line: Rams, -1.5 points
If there’s one team the Seahawks haven’t been able to figure out over the past few years, it’s the Los Angeles Rams. In the last five meetings between these two teams, the Rams have gone 4-1 straight and one of the main reasons that has happened is because they’ve been able to rack up points on the Seattle defense. In those five games, the Rams are averaging 33.6 per game and that will be the Seahawks’ worst defense Los Angeles has faced during that time.
Opening line: Saints, -6.5 points
The Saints have had no problem winning games this season, but they have had a problem covering the gap. In their last four games, they’re 4-0 in a row, but only 1-3 ATS. As for the 49ers, this game is basically the worst case scenario for them. In their last 10 games where they were a six-point or better underdog, the 49ers are 0-10 on the straight and 2-8 ATS. The only reason you might even want to think about betting the 49ers is because they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games (5-2 in a row).
Opening line: Steelers, -9.5 points
Both of these teams are 6-2 CEP this season, which is tied for the highest score in the NFL. One reason to bet against the Steelers here is that they almost never cover big point spreads. In the last seven games they’ve been favored by nine or more points, the Steelers have gone 0-7 ATS (6-1 straight), including Sunday’s game against the Cowboys where they did not cover in a 15.5-point favorite in a 24-19 win. Of course, if there’s one time they can cover a wide spread, it’s when they’re playing for the Bengals. In the last 13 games between these two teams, the Steelers have gone 12-1 straight and 10-3 ATS. The Bengals have covered six of their last seven games.
Opening line: Ravens, -6.5 points
If there’s one guy in the NFL who’s almost always a lock to cover on the road, it’s Lamar Jackson. Since taking over from the Ravens midway through the 2018 season, Jackson is 11-3-1 CEP in road games. The Ravens are also 10-0 in the last 10 games where they’ve been favored by six or more points (7-3 ATS). As for the Patriots, they’ve been an underdog three times this season and have lost all three games (1-2 ATS).
Vikings (3-5) at Bears (5-4), Monday
Opening line: Vikings, -2.5 points
The Vikings have been on a roll over the past two weeks, but if there’s one team that could end this hot streak, it’s the Bears. Not only have the Vikings lost four straight games to the Bears, Minnesota are 1-5 ATS in the last six games between the two teams. The Bears are a home underdog in this game, which might actually be a good thing for them as they have 14-4-1 CEP in their last 19 games as a home dog (9-10 straight).
BYES: Falcons, cowboys, chiefs, jets
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