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As coronavirus cases reached record levels across the country, New York City had hoped to keep the outbreak at bay and continue its slow but steady recovery from the bleak days of spring. But now the forecast is getting more alarming.
The number of new infections is rising rapidly, with more than 1,000 cases identified in the city for five consecutive days, a level that last occurred in May, according to the state health ministry. Just a month ago, daily cases were typically between 500 and 700.
Hospitalizations and death rates are only a small fraction of what they were at the height of the epidemic in the spring, and comparisons of the number of cases can be tricky, as many more tests are in progress. currently running. The test positivity rate in New York is still far lower than in neighboring states.
But as cases continue to rise in New Jersey, Connecticut and upstate New York, Mayor Bill de Blasio said Monday that the city faces a “huge” challenge.
“We need to prevent a second wave from happening here,” de Blasio said at a press conference. “He’s getting dangerously close.”
The city’s contact tracing program revealed few details about the trends and patterns that contribute to the transmission. But a city health official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to share details of internal talks, said some groups had been traced to workplaces, including construction sites and offices.
City health officials and Mr de Blasio’s aides discussed whether further city-wide restrictions should be imposed, including a broader shutdown of non-essential businesses, if the seven-day average rate of positive test results increases and remains above 3%. The seven-day average was 2.26%, according to the city’s health department.
The mayor said further lockdowns were possible if New York City did not regain control of the virus.
“God forbid that it continued and we had a full second wave,” he said. “It means a lot more restrictions. Unfortunately, it could even mean having to shut down parts of our economy again. “
It could also mean having to close schools, he said.
“There is one last chance to stop this, and we need everyone to participate,” said de Blasio.
The mayor said he is monitoring three indicators to determine whether the city is facing a “full second wave”: the total number of cases in New York City; the positivity rate, which should not exceed 3% “on a sustained basis”; and the number of hospitalizations, which he does not want to exceed 200 per day.
Staten Island has recently emerged as an area of particular concern, with the positivity rate in the Tottenville area exceeding 6%. Several other neighborhoods have rates exceeding 3%.
There are signs that Mr de Blasio may be reluctant to impose further restrictions, which would require the governor’s assent.
The mayor has previously said he supports stopping indoor meals if the seven-day positivity rate reaches 2% – a threshold that has already been crossed without his taking any action.
On Monday, the mayor only said it was time to reassess the wisdom of allowing limited indoor meals.
The city’s health official said assistants to the mayor and health department officials were discussing whether the mayor should start urging New Yorkers to cut back on friend visits or resume. work from home if they can – a recommendation that would hinder the return of workers to Midtown Manhattan office buildings. , which show some temporary signs of life.
At a press conference on Monday, Cuomo said state officials were monitoring the numbers but not taking immediate action.
“This is going to be constant for the foreseeable future,” the governor said. “Every other day we’ll say, ‘This place has become a microcluster, this place is no longer a microcluster.’ “
Mr Cuomo, a third-term Democrat, also reaffirmed that the effectiveness of any state restrictions would depend on local enforcement – which he has criticized in the past – as well as on individuals’ compliance with social distancing rules and mask.
“We are tired of Covid, but Covid is not tired of us,” he says. “People need to be tough and disciplined about their behavior.”
He also dismissed the idea that the state was seeing an “increase” in cases, noting that other states have much higher infection rates.
An epidemiologist, Denis Nash, professor at the City University of New York School of Public Health, said that while transmission in New York City was increasing – and had been for some time now – the increase in hospitalizations and deaths was smaller than planned.
He said he believed it was too early to revert to the closures or massive closures of workplaces or schools.
“We haven’t gotten to that place yet,” he said, while adding that it might be wise to reconsider the decision to allow meals inside, an activity considered relatively high risk. .
At stake is much of New York City’s recovery from the pandemic, which had a devastating impact in the early months, killing tens of thousands, sickening many more and severely undermining the economy. local. The city has since become a national model for curbing the epidemic, bringing children back to public schools for in-person classes, allowing limited indoor meals and the reopening of museums, hair salons and gymnasiums.
New York had previously struggled with localized peaks in some neighborhoods, including those with many ultra-Orthodox Jewish residents, which led Mr. Cuomo and Mr. de Blasio to enact new restrictions in those areas.
But given the evolution of the epidemic nationwide, it was not entirely clear whether the larger increases in the city could be attributed to these neighborhoods.
In New York City, numbers are up in all five boroughs, with 1,156 new cases reported on Sunday.
“This is going to be a really key week,” said Manhattan City Councilor Mark Levine, who is chairman of the council’s health committee.
Mr Levine said he feared “the window would close to prevent much more aggressive closure measures” and that if the number of cases continued to climb, the city would likely find itself in a springtime lockdown.
Robyn Gershon, professor of epidemiology at the School of Global Public Health at New York University, said she was “cautiously optimistic” about New York City’s ability to reduce transmission and made praising Governor Cuomo’s “microcluster strategy” for color-coded neighborhoods – with colors corresponding to restrictions.
Mr Nash, the professor of epidemiology, said encouraging news about the vaccine should be incorporated into city council advice to New Yorkers: with a vaccine on the horizon, they should redouble their efforts to carry masks and socially distancing oneself.
“The message should be, ‘We’ve got this far, we just need to keep it up a little bit.’ We have to look forward to a promising, safe and effective vaccine,” he said.
In New Jersey, Governor Philip D. ravaged towns and villages in the northeast.
Mr Murphy, a Democrat, said early Monday the rules were designed to “shave around the edges”, without reverting to a strict statewide shutdown like the one passed in March.
Under the new restrictions, which begin Thursday, restaurants and nightclubs across the state must close patrons indoors at 10 p.m., and no one can be seated directly at the bar.
High school sports teams are not allowed to compete in out-of-state tournaments, but college athletes can still travel.
Mr Murphy said he would continue to consider additional targeted restrictions on non-essential businesses.
“Let’s focus, my friends, on these next six months,” said Mr. Murphy. “It’s not forever and ever. We basically have a six month window to overcome fatigue and get the virus out of the ground. “
Jesse McKinley and Tracey Tully contributed reporting.
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