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Sometimes it’s really hard to find the good in the bad.
It’s me this week with my choices. I finally got totally rotten. My record against the spread was a miserable 4-10, to drop me to 68-63-1 for the season. It wasn’t much better right away.
The good news is, I haven’t had a losing week with my best bets on the Pick Six podcast, going 3 to 3 thanks to the New York Jets on Monday night. I broke the rule of never taking the Jets, and it paid off. This brings my season record with my best bets to 35-18-1.
See, there’s good to be found in a toilet full of crappy week 9 choices. Now let’s turn things around at week 10.
The Colts made little offense last week against the Ravens, but this Titan defense isn’t that good. They don’t rush the passer at all, which is why Philip Rivers will be able to successfully throw him. Tennessee’s offense is to lead Derrick Henry, but the Colts’ defense is good against the run. The Colts will come here and take the top spot in the division with a win.
To choose: Colts 23, Titans 20
It is the first place of the division. It’s hard to believe. The Giants almost beat the Eagles in Philly a few weeks ago, but this Eagles team is a lot healthier. It is important. Look for the Eagles to win a tough, physical game.
To choose: Eagles 23, Giants 16
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Jake Luton will make his second start in this one for the Jaguars after playing well last week against Houston. But this is his first game on the road and there is now a gang on him. Aaron Rodgers has lit the defenses and the Jaguars defense is in big trouble. Rodgers will have a huge day, while Luton won’t be close to calling.
To choose: Packers 39, Jaguars 17
Washington football team at the Detroit Lions
Alex Smith will be leaving for Washington after doing some good things last week. He did throw three picks, however. But he looked comfortable. The Lions have collapsed in recent weeks and Matt Patricia is struggling. Even so, I think they win here, but it’s close.
To choose: Lions 21, Washington 20
The Browns come out of a bye, but Baker Mayfield comes out of COVID-19 quarantine. What is its status? It’s Case Keenum, it won’t be a big difference. The Browns will pound football and take hits. The Texans are not good at defense and are playing a second straight road game. The browns take it.
To choose: Browns 28, Texans 21
Last Chances:
Buccaneers -4.5
The Bucs come out of a horrible spectacle on Sunday night. Who was this team? Carolina have lost three straight games, but they showed well in Kansas City last week. It will be different. I think the Bucs are going to refocus with Tom Brady bouncing back with a big day. The Tampa Bay defense does the same. The Bucs take it.
To choose: Bucs 28, Panthers 20
Last Chances:
Dolphins -2.5
It’s a long journey for a Chargers team that have suffered many heartbreaking losses. The last time Miami was home two weeks ago, they beat the other Los Angeles team. It will be different. I think Justin Herbert wins the passing duel with his compatriot first-round rookie Tua Tagovailoa. The Chargers will win a tight.
To choose: Chargers 23, Dolphins 21
The Broncos are playing a second straight road game after losing to Atlanta last Sunday. The Raiders have won back-to-back wins and appear to be back after a little lull. The defense has made some progress. It could be a high-profile shootout, however, between Drew Lock and Derek Carr, with Carr gaining the upper hand lately.
To choose: Raiders 34, Broncos 31
Last Chances:
Cardinals -2
Josh Allen vs. Kyler Murray will be fun to watch. Both offenses can score and both defenses are in trouble. Look for plenty of points in this one, Allen winning a high scoring game for Buffalo even with the long trip.
To choose: Bills 34, cardinals 33
The Saints have become the best team in the NFC, while the 49ers are a shell of the team we saw at the Super Bowl last year. These teams have played good games in recent years, but this won’t be one of them. Seek out the Saints to have an easy time. Brilliant city.
To choose: Saints 31, 49ers 20
The Rams come goodbye, while the Seahawks play a second straight game on the road. It’s a challenge, but even more so because Seattle’s defense is so bad. It will be a game where Jared Goff and the Rams get back on track offensively and the Rams will do just enough to slow Russell Wilson down.
To choose: Rams 31, Seahawks 26
The Bengals are goodbye, while the Steelers are home for the first time in a month. The concern for the Steelers is whether Ben Roethlisberger will play after being on the COVID-19 roster. If he doesn’t, it will be Mason Rudolph. No matter who it is, the Steelers defense will make a difference. Look for a suffocating performance against Joe Burrow.
To choose: Steelers 30, Bengals 19
The Patriots found a way to rally against the Jets, but it wasn’t a good night for the defense. It will be even worse. Look for Lamar Jackson and the running game to have a great game against the New England defense. Cam Newton will not be able to follow.
To choose: Ravens 27, Patriots 17
Last Chances:
Vikings -2.5
The Vikings suddenly have life after two straight wins, while the Bears falter a bit. Dalvin Cook has been sensational this season and especially the past two weeks. But Chicago is strong against the race. It will matter here. Nick Foles has been ordinary, but he should be able to play enough for a home win.
To choose: Bear 26, Vikings 23
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