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Republican pollster and strategist Frank Luntz told CNBC on Wednesday that the indecisive senatorial elections in Georgia are essential in shaping the trajectory of President-elect Joe Biden’s passage to the White House, calling them “the most important senatorial elections of modern times.” .
The race between GOP Senator Kelly Loeffler and Democrat Raphael Warnock heads for a runoff on January 5, after neither candidate managed to secure 50% of the vote in last week’s general election. The other state Senate contest, between Republican Senator David Perdue and Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff, also appears to be heading for a second round – although NBC News has not made an official call.
The balance of power in the Senate will be at stake if the two head for a runoff in January – and if both were to switch Democratic, the Senate would be split in the middle.
Republicans currently hold 50 seats, compared to Democrats’ 48, including two independent senators, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine, who caucus with Democrats. That means a pair of Democratic victories in Georgia would make the 100-seat Senate 50-50. Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would take the deciding vote.
“If the Democrats can win back those two seats, then they will control the Senate and the President will have an agenda that cannot be challenged” on Capitol Hill, Luntz said on “Squawk Box.” “If the Republicans win even one of these seats, they [retain] control the majority and they will determine exactly what the president’s program goes forward. “
Democrats will retain control of the House, according to NBC News, which puts the tally at 225 Democrats and 210 Republicans. That would be a net loss of seven seats for Democrats, but still above the threshold of 218 seats needed to retain their majority.
Luntz said the “consequences” of the Democrats’ two-seat victory in Georgia made more likely the approval of ambitious climate change proposals and the withdrawal of parts of President Donald Trump’s tax reform law. Democrats could also push for Senate rules to be changed, such as filibuster, which sets a 60-vote threshold for bringing legislation to the prosecution, according to Luntz.
However, Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia said this week he would oppose proposals from those in his party to end filibuster and increase the number of Supreme Court justices, a a commitment which, if fulfilled, would dash progressive hopes for more structural reform.
Luntz noted Manchin’s recent remarks, saying he takes the West Virginia Democrat at his word, calling him a “reasonable senator.” Nonetheless, Luntz noted that Democratic oversight of the Senate would still mean committee chairs would be considerably more liberal than their Republican counterparts. “The stakes have never been higher and everyone in Washington is going to be affected by what happens on January 5th,” he said.
Even so, Luntz said he found it difficult to predict what would happen in the Georgia Senate races – especially given the prospect of Biden eventually winning the presidential contest there. With 99% of the expected ballots counted, Biden leads Trump with just over 14,000 votes. No Democratic presidential candidate has won Georgia since Bill Clinton in 1992. Today, however, it is a “real swing state,” Luntz said.
However, later Wednesday morning after Luntz’s interview, Georgia Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger announced a “full and manual” statewide presidential recount. He said he intended to complete the recount in time for the Nov. 20 deadline to certify the state’s election results.
Among the factors that make the Georgia Senate results difficult to predict, according to Luntz, are massive spending on races. He said it was also unclear what role Trump would decide to play in the election. “We don’t know if he’s going to take his marbles and go home, if he’s going to be active” in the campaign for the GOP candidates, Luntz said. Republican voters may also feel dejected if Biden ends up winning the state and does not show up for the January vote, he said.
In contrast, Luntz said he expects Biden and his allies to be active in seeking support and participation for Warnock and, potentially, Ossoff. “They will do whatever they can absolutely. They will flood the state,” he said.
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