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CINCINNATI – President-elect Joe Biden is the first person to win the presidency without wearing Ohio since 1960.
Biden’s victory, and the question in which he won, has left many political experts wondering what this means for the bellwether state.
“I think Ohio really isn’t a representative of the whole country like it once was,” said Mark Caleb Smith, professor of political science at Cedarville University in Ohio.
“Ohio is now a much redder than purple state,” Smith said. “If you look at the recent, statewide election, presidential or governess, Republicans have done very well. I just think that means Ohio has taken a different turn. I think Ohio has changed one. little and it’s no longer the central part of the country. – it’s probably a little more on the right, traditional, conservative side. “
Some national political experts go further.
“This election result tells us emphatically that Ohio is no longer relevant to the choice of president,” said David Wasserman, NBC News contributor, editor of The Cook Political Report. “It’s far from the state of swing it was decades ago.”
Donald Trump won Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania on his way to his presidency in 2016, but Biden put a lot of effort and resources into bringing them back. While Biden may have won Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, according to projections by NBC News, Ohio has remained in Trump’s column.
What separates Ohio from these other Midwestern states?
Ohio is a mostly white, working-class state, and the Appalachian regions are even more right than they were four years ago, Wasserman said.
Many counties in Ohio have turned increasingly red since the state backed President Barack Obama in 2012.
For example, only 38% of Trumbull County residents voted Republican in the 2012 presidential election, up from 54% this year.
Likewise, 59% of Republicans in Jackson County chose presidential candidate Mitt Romney in 2012 before 76% voted for Trump this year.
Senator Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, who has been successful in his campaign in Ohio for the past few years, said in an interview last week that he was disappointed Ohio did not help lead Biden to victory .
“Obviously, I was hoping for something very different. I was delighted with the energy we saw. Ohio is a tough challenge. Trump has a connection with voters, especially in rural areas. “Brown said.
Biden joined Grover Cleveland, who has done so twice, Franklin D. Roosevelt and John F. Kennedy as the only Democrats since the Civil War to win the presidency without help from Ohio.
Biden did so by rebuilding the “blue wall” of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, according to projections by NBC News.
Last month, Biden made a campaign stop in Toledo, where he pledged to invest in American workers and create 1 million union jobs to help build the middle class.
Due to population and demographic changes, Ohio is a bit whiter than some other Midwestern states, so it votes in a different way, Smith said.
He added that Ohio was a key state because it resembled the rest of the United States in terms of demographics, urban-rural distribution, and industry.
“I don’t think that’s the case anymore,” Smith said. “I don’t think Ohio has changed much [since 2016]I think the national vibe has changed in Ohio. I think it’s clear [Trump] has a very broad appeal here. He regularly visits the state. Ohio is emerging from this moderate, intermediate position [in] historically and evolving towards a redder and more conservative position. “
Christopher Devine, assistant professor of political science at the University of Dayton, echoed this sentiment.
“I think Ohio has gone from being a flag bearer in the last two elections,” he said. “I’m not prepared to go so far as to say that Ohio is a solidly red state, because the red and blue state designations tend to be exaggerated.
“It’s just ‘Ohio, then the nation,’ he said.” In fact, Ohio appears to be more and more Republican, though it’s premature to call it a solid red state. “
The state Senate has 24 Republicans for nine Democrats. State House has 61 Republicans versus 38 Democrats. The governor, a senator and the state attorney general are Republicans.
Meanwhile, opinions on what a Biden presidency means for Ohio are mixed.
Ronnie A. Dunn, acting director of diversity and associate professor of urban studies at Cleveland State University, said he believes Biden will bring the country together.
Biden has said he will represent and preside over all Americans and their interests, and “I hope he unites the country,” Dunn said.
Smith took a different approach.
“I don’t know if the Biden administration will have a dramatic effect on the country or on Ohio itself unless our party leaders decide they want to cooperate and compromise. I think we’ll consider a [more] government divided than a unified government, ”Smith said.
“I don’t think either side is in a position to make dramatic changes. I don’t see it moving one way or the other,” he said. “At the moment, I don’t see Biden representing radical change. If Democrats take the Senate, there could be things happening.”
Devine said a Biden presidency would likely mean a de-escalation of the trade war with China, which could help Ohio farmers.
“But it’s going to be difficult to pass part of [his] policies by the legislation he promised during the election campaign. But there are some things he can do through executive orders, ”Devine said.
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