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As the coronavirus pandemic accelerates across the United States, conditions could worsen on the west coast, northeast, and mid-Atlantic states in the coming weeks, according to a new forecast from the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP) Policy Lab.
The CHOP Policy Lab will begin publishing weekly results of its county-level COVID-Lab predictions for the pandemic, the lab said on its website on Wednesday. He noted that hospitalizations, intensive care admissions and ventilator use are now on the rise in all 50 states.
Growing cases: The model predicts “substantial growth” in Covid-19 cases over the next four weeks in the northeast and south of the Mid-Atlantic region, “where disastrous trends previously seen in the Midwest have now set in.” , the lab said. Forecasts noted that mitigation efforts in and around New York and Boston have “slowed but not mitigated” an increase in hospitalizations and ICU admissions in cities.
Predictions from the CHOP Policy Lab also predict “significant growth in cases” along the West Coast in major cities in California, as well as in Portland and Seattle through mid-December.
Rapid-fill intensive care beds: “In every state in the Midwest, patients with COVID-19 occupy more than 25% of intensive care beds,” the lab reported.
In four states – Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota and South Dakota – coronavirus patients have filled 50% or more of all available intensive care beds. “We suspect that in many locations in these states, intensive care units are close, at full capacity or in excess,” according to forecasts.
The forecast also noted that in Wisconsin, one of the first states to see explosive growth in Covid-19 cases this fall, could be near a peak in transmissions, but hospitalizations and intensive care admissions won’t have not yet stabilized.
At least half of the 819 counties in the lab’s forecast register a 9% test positivity rate, a measure of the prevalence of positive coronavirus cases relative to the number of tests administered.
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