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With the increase in COVID-19 cases in 46 states, 10 of which broke records in one day for new cases on Thursday, America has officially entered what experts are calling the “exponential” phase of spread – a rapid proliferation of cases that cannot be contained by traditional measures. On Thursday alone, the United States saw 160,000 new cases of the virus, more than on any day since the start of the pandemic.
In California, the second state to exceed one million cases, thousands of people in cars lined up at Dodger Stadium on Thursday to be tested; in parts of Washington state, individuals waited four to five hours.
Related: Restrictions Rise As Pandemic Rages In United States
The current spike in cases – what some states are calling a third wave – has resulted in more than 100,000 new cases a day since November 4. But that doesn’t count those that might go undetected. “We have widespread and uncontrolled COVID-19 in many parts of the country,” says Dr. Amesh Adalja, senior researcher at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “And we know the reported cases are an underestimate of what’s out there… we miss a lot of cases because people don’t get tested. So the actual figure is much higher than what we actually see. “
Exponential spread means ‘insanely high growth rate’
Adalja says the exponential spread means that a virus is no longer increasing on a linear scale but rather increasing at a rapid rate. Dr Oguzhan Alagoz, an engineering professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who models the spread of infectious diseases, agrees, saying the exponential spread refers to an “incredibly high growth rate.” In this case, that means new cases of COVID-19 in many parts of the country are doubling or tripling every week. Part of that, he says, is because COVID-19 appears to be more contagious than other viruses.
In the case of the flu, for example, the R0 (Basic Reproductive Index) – or the average number of people to whom someone transmits a virus – is one to two. With COVID-19, the R0 number hovered around three. “So let’s say if I infect three people, these three people will each infect another three people, and those three are going to infect three more, ”says Alagoz. “This is why it is multiplying in such a short time.”
Many Midwestern States Are Growing Exponentially
Looking closely at the numbers in the United States, it is not difficult to find examples of exponential spread, both nationally and between individual states.
According to the COVID Tracking Project, the United States surpassed 5 million cases of COVID-19 on August 9, but as of November 9, it had almost eclipsed 10 million. In Wisconsin – one of the hardest hit states – the average number of new cases per day rose from 2,800 in early October to nearly triple that of this week. In Michigan, another midwestern state recently hit by the pandemic, active hospitalizations have risen from 669 in early October to over 2,000 this week, filling intensive care units and leading Governor Gretchen Whitmer to declare the situation “Disastrous”.
In North Dakota, where a motorcycle rally of nearly 500,000 people in neighboring South Dakota is believed to have sparked an epidemic, average daily cases have risen from 400 in early October to 1,800 a day this week. Adalja says spikes like these are dangerous. “When you see an outbreak it doesn’t necessarily start with an exponential spread, but once you start having a critical number of cases, then the spread really takes off in a really explosive way,” he says. “This is a particularly worrying type of spread because it becomes very difficult to control when you are in this type of growth phase.”
Masks are useful, but in this case probably not enough
Dr William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, agrees the United States has reached a new level in the pandemic. “The virus is spreading rampantly. I have heard someone refer to “volcanic” and I think it is correct. Schaffner says COVID fatigue likely plays a role, with individuals becoming more lax with social distancing and mask wearing.
He reiterates what officials have been saying for months: that masks can reduce the spread by up to 80% and that they can protect both the wearer and those around them. Adalja agrees with the masked mandates – which have been instituted in more than 34 states – but stresses that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to tackling the pandemic. “You have to look and see what is causing cases in your area – and it’s not consistent, because in some places it’s not bars and restaurants, it’s household gatherings,” says Adalja. “Each jurisdiction must therefore determine which activities lead to spread and focus on them.”
This week it looks like a lot of managers are doing just that. Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot on Thursday announced a stay-at-home order for the city, which requires residents to stay at home unless they get essential supplies like groceries or medicine. In New York City, where schools are on the verge of closing, Gov. Andrew Cuomo has issued an order calling for all restaurants, bars and gyms to close at 10 p.m. starting Friday.
Similar curfews have been adopted in other hotspots like El Paso, Texas and Miami. The goal of these curfews is to allow businesses to stay open while limiting both the time that people can be exposed and the late hours when alcohol can bolster cloud prevention efforts. Many local leaders, including those in Los Angeles and Milwaukee, have also urged residents to be extremely careful with Thanksgiving plans and to avoid gatherings of more than 10 people.
“You can’t control exponentiality. We messed it up; we got past that ‘
But while stay-at-home restrictions and orders may help limit the damage, Dr Gregory Poland, infectious disease expert and head of the Mayo Clinic’s vaccine research group, says he may be. be too little too late. “We are now exponential. You cannot control exponentiality. We messed it up; we have moved beyond that, ”Poland told Yahoo Life. “Now the only options are for something to happen with the virus where it dies, we lock in like many places in Europe do, or we find a very effective vaccine that virtually everyone takes. These are our only options at this point. “
Pfizer announced this week that its COVID-19 vaccine is over 90% effective in Phase III clinical trials, which is promising. Still, with approval likely in a few weeks and widespread availability not expected until 2021, the situation in the United States – at this point – remains grim. “I wish I could give you better news,” Alagoz said. “But until we have a vaccine available or, as a community, a lot of people change their behavior, I don’t think it will slow down.”
For the latest news and updates on the coronavirus, follow to https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus. According to experts, people over 60 and those with compromised immune systems continue to be at greatest risk. If you have any questions, please consult the CDC and WHO resource guides.
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