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Colorado saw its first glimmer of light last week after nearly two months of grim news from COVID-19, but what happens next depends on what we all do now.
The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment reported 32,791 new cases of COVID-19 last week, about 200 more than the week before. It was the smallest week-to-week increase since the start of October – similar to a wildfire that continues to grow, but no longer consumes thousands of additional acres each day.
Hospitalizations continued to increase, but at a slower pace than in recent weeks. As of Monday, 1,597 people were hospitalized with confirmed cases of COVID-19, and 114 were being treated for COVID-like symptoms and awaiting test results.
Statewide, 80% of intensive care unit beds were used, as were 81% of general hospital care beds. It was a slight improvement over the same period last week.
The trajectory of the deaths was not so clear due to the delay in reporting. The death toll had risen for five weeks from November 15, reaching levels not seen since early May.
Whether progress continues or reverses will depend on what people do over the next few days, said Dr. Jon Samet, dean of the Colorado School of Public Health. New restrictions on counties that are level red on the state’s COVID dial are expected to start reducing transmission early next week, but any effects of public policy could be hushed up if people gather for Thanksgiving and spread the virus there, he said.
“We think what’s really critical is what we’ll see in a week,” he said. “We don’t know what people are going to do on Thanksgiving.”
The Denver area has moved into Level Red, which is closing indoor dining and banning gatherings between households on Friday. El Paso County joined the list on Monday, bringing the total to 22 counties in red.
The Colorado School of Public Health reported on Friday that one in 49 Coloradan could be contagious. This means that the chances that a person in a given group could spread the virus are higher than they have been since the start of the pandemic.
Hospitalizations are increasing more slowly than in recent weeks, so the report estimates Colorado will not reach capacity in intensive care units until mid-January, if current trends continue.
Hospitals in the Denver area have reported that while they still have beds, they are struggling with staff and cannot care for many more patients. The state has set up a staffing center where hospitals, nursing homes and other health care providers can seek help, but it is not known how many potential workers are available.
Governor Jared Polis issued an executive order on Monday authorizing the state’s health department to order hospitals capable of accepting patients from those who do not. Most hospitals in the state participate in a voluntary transfer program.
“The executive order ensures that we have the tools we need to use every hospital bed in the state if we have a relapse in severe cases,” a statement from the health department said.
The promising results from several vaccines show the restrictions won’t last forever, Samet said, but continuing to follow them now will reduce the pain the virus will cause until then. Colorado is participating in an exercise to test whether states are ready to distribute the vaccine, but few details are available.
“We all have to wait a little longer,” he said. “I hope everyone will be at a big gathering this next Thanksgiving.”
Jessica Seaman contributed to this report.
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