Will Moderna stock hit $ 200 in 2021?

Modern (NASDAQ: ARNM) has been one of the leaders in the race to develop a vaccine against the coronavirus and, as a result, its shares have climbed more than 600% this year. In March, clinical-stage biotechnology became the first to begin human trials of a COVID-19 vaccine candidate. This candidate, mRNA-1273, has moved smoothly and quickly into clinical studies, and this week an FDA advisory committee recommended that it be granted emergency use authorization.

Before the panel meeting, Moderna’s stock tripped. As of 10:30 a.m. EST on Friday, it was down more than 14% for the week to around $ 138. The logical questions now are: Is FDA clearance of mRNA-1273 priced at current levels? Or can Moderna beat Wall Street expectations and hit $ 200 in 2021?

Moderna has climbed this year as investors bet its work on COVID-19 will yield results. Next year, the catalyst that moves the stock will be its actual income from mRNA-1273. The price Moderna charges for its vaccine varies depending on the size of the order and other factors. But to simplify these basic envelope calculations, let’s use the price paid by the United States as a guide: $ 1.5 billion for 100 million doses, or $ 15 per dose. Moderna plans to produce up to 125 million doses in the first quarter. This would equate to revenues of over $ 1.8 billion.

Prior to that, Moderna had no product revenue, so a quarter of $ 1 billion and more is significant. And given the massive global demand for coronavirus vaccines, we should expect its sales to remain high for some time. Moderna plans to manufacture between 500 million and 1 billion doses of mRNA-1273 in 2021.

Among Wall Street analysts who cover Moderna, the highest 12-month price target projects a 34% increase from the current level at $ 185. Coronavirus shares have exceeded analysts’ targets this year, based on a lot of hope and many unknowns.

These days we have more information – including rough sales estimates and a sense of the competitive landscape. This data makes it easier for analysts to predict stock performance.

Given its earning potential, Moderna stock could reach $ 185 next year. But I’m not so convinced the stock is hitting $ 200 so quickly – unless the company surprises investors with gains in production, market share, or sales. Either way, with billions of dollars in revenue on the horizon, this biotech company is set to continue its streak of stock market wins in 2021.