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Aaron Rodgers sat on his sofa last Sunday and watched the snow fall in Green Bay. He checked the weather app on his phone to see what the snow percentages were during tonight’s game against the Titans, hoping it would last.
True, of course, and Rodgers felt right at home. In a performance that will likely put him above the top for his third career MVP award, Rodgers led the Packers to a 40-14 victory over Tennessee and one step closer to getting the all-field advantage. throughout the NFC playoffs, alongside a first-round bye. . The Packers can clinch the seed with a win over Chicago or a loss in Seattle this weekend.
In a season where home advantage has all but disappeared throughout the league, and for a team like Green Bay that doesn’t need much more than an abacus to count attendance in recent weeks, I think the Packers will benefit more than most. teams by securing the No.1 seed if and when the results of Week 17 confirm it.
“I think we’ve all heard enough that we haven’t beaten enough good teams. Not responding and playing a full game, and that was our response,” Rodgers said after the win. “I feel good where we are. It’s hard to play in the cold and it’s hard to play Lambeau.
I wrote a lot before the start of the season about the impact the lack of fans would have on home advantage. Studies have shown that the main driver of home advantage is the influence of supporters over officials. And with little to no fans in the stands – and especially with tarps covering the first rows of seats – that influence would theoretically disappear.
This year, the home teams are 120-119-1 heading into Week 17. That’s the closest margin of the last decade at least. The home teams have topped the visitors by 5,944 points to 5,910 points this year, so just one more road team that wins on Sunday and oust the home team will essentially make this year a wash.
It’s not just because of empty stadiums that we’re seeing such tight margins. Last year the home teams went 132-123-1 and were in fact upgraded by 30 points. What we do know for sure is that home advantage isn’t worth the three points it once was, and this year it hasn’t even been worth the roughly 2.5 points it was adjusted to. . Home teams are 117-123 ATS this year, so the betting markets never quite got it.
Green Bay, New Orleans and Seattle are all in contention for the No.1 seed, and all have posted better-than-expected home field advantages this season, compared to the rest of the league and adjusted for. of the strength of the opponent. These numbers come to me with (all) the help of Robby Greer, who does strategic analysis for a Silicon Valley startup and has an economics degree from Vanderbilt and an MBA from Dartmouth. We worked together on my previous article on home court advantage, and I reached out to him this week for help on this one.
“Considering the weather, the week off and a slight advantage on the pitch, I think you would probably consider 1.5-2 points (advantage for Green Bay) depending on the opponent” , Greer says. “It sounds weak, but in the context of 2020 it’s actually a pretty big advantage on the pitch.”
The Packers haven’t had more than 1,000 fans in the stands since Thanksgiving, and those individuals include healthcare workers, first responders, team workers and their families. Team officials have yet to call out the number of fans, if any, who will be allowed into Lambeau for the playoffs, but it’s hard to imagine they will increase from a few hundred to over 10,000 people.
If the home advantage is mainly due to a large crowd and no one outside of Dallas has more than a few thousand fans in the stands, then what does playing at home really mean for the outcome of the game?
The only home field proven advantage in any sport was seen in Denver thanks to the altitude. What if Green Bay offered some sort of noticeable edge on the field in windy, cold and / or snowy conditions?
“I think the cold is something that we always embrace here, and that’s just what we train into, it’s what we live in every day,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said after the victory of the Titans. “So our guys accept that. It’s just that we’ve had some bad weather games, more so in terms of the wind. It’s something that I think is a little harder than all the snow that is. out there tonight. Obviously, I think only guys who have the right basics in these kinds of situations, I think that’s essential. “
Rodgers used to speak with former Packers head coach Mike McCarthy about the usefulness of big backs in bad weather conditions. From Ahman Green to Ryan Grant, from Eddie Lacy to AJ Dillon, Green Bay has normally had a big back to handle the load when the field forces the game plan to be adjusted.
When the tarp is removed from the field before the game, snow begins to penetrate the grass and make the field more slippery. If it’s cold (and colder than Sunday against Tennessee), the ground could start to freeze and make it even more slippery. The ball is also smoother and more difficult to throw into the wind, so the team that is more familiar and comfortable with these conditions would obviously have a head start.
The Packers are 15-5 at home in the Super Bowl era and Rodgers is 4-2 as a home playoff starter. Green Bay finished 7-1 at home this year with the only loss to Minnesota in Week 8.
But Greer took a deeper dive than that and tightened the numbers from 1999 to today. He found the Packers to have a 1.49-point field advantage in regular-season games played after November 1 than in games played in September and October.
“You look at the Green Bay data from 1999, a pretty large sample size, and you admit there’s a lot of volatility in those numbers, but on average their field advantage in November and December is a little higher. A full point and a half, “says Greer.” There could be something in there and something to that. Maybe the No.1 seed would be worth a little more in Green Bay [than others], especially a team like New Orleans and a quarterback like Drew Brees who, for all his strengths, doesn’t have a good arm. “
Biggest benefit of all, of course, is the first-round bye for just the No.1 seed. When the extended playoffs were first offered, I thought I would take the first-round exemption from. the No. 2 seed would create too much of an advantage for the seed. Yes, the regular season should matter, but putting in just one team a week and having the other six open weeks made it feel like the league was starting the playoffs with too much of an imbalance.
The best article I’ve seen written about it was from Perspective Football’s Chase Stuart. He found that the seed’s chances of making the Super Bowl in this new format compared to the previous format had increased by 5%. Meanwhile, the No.2 seed’s chances of making it to the Super Bowl are down 11.2%. The last two Super Bowl winners were the two seeds of their conference playoffs, by the way.
This article was written before the pandemic and does not take into account the effect of empty stadiums on playoff performance. We’ve never seen anything like it, so any guess on how this will affect the game is just that. But whatever your advantage on the pitch, there’s no question that the No.1 seed’s chances of making the playoffs have increased and the No.2 seed’s chances have decreased.
The advantage of playing at home in the NFL has never been slimmer. Add to the mix some weather conditions unique to Green Bay among its potential NFC opponents, plus everything that comes with today’s NFL No.1 seed, and you’ve got what could be the most. big home pitch advantage of all in a strange 2020. season.
“I’ve played in a lot of these games so I feel pretty good that I can throw it if we have snow and wind like we did today,” Rodgers said after Sunday’s win. “It’s just something we’re used to. We train outside. We play in those type of games.”
At your choice!
I went 10-6 last week in a week of ups and downs that saw me pick the Jets to win, but also pick Dwayne Haskins to beat an NFL team. I’m now 161-78-1 for the final week of the regular season. This week has a chance of being a disaster based on who its starters rest and when. Well. Let’s do it!
Dolphins with bills
1 p.m., Sunday, CBS
It’s the hardest game to pick this week. To me, it boils down to this: The Bills have already envisioned these last few games as the playoffs. They play like the second best team in the NFL – not just the AFC. I don’t see Buffalo slowing its momentum, and I believe Miami will need some help on Sunday to advance to the playoffs.
The choice: Invoices
Jets at Patriots
1 p.m., Sunday, CBS
If the Jets had either Frank Gore or La’Mical Perine available for this game, I could very well pick the Fighting Adam Gases to end the season on a three-game winning streak. But I just don’t know how the Jets are going to let the Pats’ defense guess without a reliable running back. Bill Belichick is almost done having to answer questions about his quarterback for about four months.
The choice: Patriots
Cardinals at Rams
4:25 p.m., Sunday, FOX
When you build your squad like the Rams do, you end up with a replacement quarterback like John Wolford. His security blanket would normally be Cooper Kupp but he won’t play. If the Rams want to return to the playoffs, they better hope the Bears can’t find a way to beat the Packers – which they won’t.
The choice: Cardinals
Eagles football team
8:20 p.m., Sunday, NBC
If it’s Alex Smith in central Washington and he’s in good health, I reserve the right to change my mind. Doug Pederson knows the pressure is on and I believe he just happens to be a coach who doesn’t deserve to be fired. By virtue of his play, Jalen Hurts had a very interesting offseason in Philadelphia. I think it continues Sunday night by knocking the Washington football team out of the playoffs.
The choice: Eagles
Cowboys at Giants
1 p.m., Sunday, FOX
It’s Jason Garrett’s (post-COVID-19) revenge game! The Giants have dropped seven in a row to the Cowboys, but this game is easy for me to choose. New York is home to the best quarterback, better defense and better head coach. Make room for your new NFC East champions.
The choice: giants
The rest
Crows on Bengals
Browns on Steelers
Vikings on Lions
Saints on panthers
Buccaneers above the falcons
Titans on Texans
Colts on Jaguars
Heads on loaders
Raiders over Broncos
Seahawks over 49ers
Packers on bears
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