What happens if the Senate is tied?

With Democrats set to win two Senate second-round races in Georgia on Tuesday – and regain control of the chamber – political commentators have already started to speculate on what President-elect Joe Biden can do with a united government.

It could depend on decisions over the next few months from one man: West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin III.

Mr. Manchin, a Democrat serving his second full term in the Senate, is perhaps his party’s most conservative member in Washington.

He voted to confirm Supreme Court Justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh. He strongly opposed liberal policy proposals such as Medicare for All and the Green New Deal. And he has backed several of Donald Trump’s most controversial immigration proposals, including withholding funding at “sanctuary cities” and building a physical wall along the US-Mexico border.

Perhaps more importantly, Mr. Manchin opposes key structural changes in the US government by his more liberal colleagues that would upend bipartisan decision-making in Washington.

The main liberal proposals are:

If Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff beat GOP Senators Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue in Georgia (as most election forecasters now expect them to receive the current vote total), the Senate will be at 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans, with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris casting deciding votes.

It gives Democrats an infallible majority, control over what gets and doesn’t get a vote, and all-important committee hammers. But that leaves them unable to repeal filibuster – and, in turn, add more seats on the Supreme Court – without Mr. Manchin’s backing.

He has made his position clear on several occasions over the past few months.

“I pledge to you tonight, and I pledge to all of your viewers and everyone else watching – I want to allay those fears, I want to allay those fears for you right now, because when they talk about knowing how we have to wrap the courts or end the filibuster, I will not vote to do it, ”Manchin said in an interview with Fox News in November, shortly after the 2020 general election.

“I will not vote to race the courts … and I will not vote to end the filibuster.”

Throughout their second election campaign, Mr Perdue and Ms Loeffler presented themselves to Conservative voters as the last lines of defense against a “radical socialist” takeover in Washington.

In an interview with Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo in November, Mr Perdue explained what would become the drumbeat of his campaign message over the next two months:

“[Senate Democratic Leader Chuck] Schumer will change the rules of the Senate so they can do whatever they want with 50 votes plus the vice president’s vote as a tiebreaker. They’ll pack the court – they want to add four new Democratic seats by adding two new states – and they ultimately want to remove the Electoral College, ”Mr. Perdue said.

“This will allow them to carry on this program that they have now espoused through the presidential primary all year round, and it is [the] Green New Deal – they want to dismantle the police, [have] open borders. They want to have sanctuary cities, ”said the Republican senator.

Mr. Manchin is officially opposed to each of the elements listed by Mr. Perdue in this interview.

The West Virginia Democrat, 73, is not re-elected until 2024, which coincides with the next presidential cycle.