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At some point in 2021, the pandemic will likely abate. With the world population less ravaged by Covid-19, expectations of an economic recovery are growing.
Looking into this post-pandemic future, financial advisors are taking steps to position their clients for a better future. Portfolio management requires constant review, but planning for a return to the workforce and changes in consumer behavior present unique challenges.
As US equity markets approach all-time highs, hopes of a recovery are mixed with fears of overvalued stocks on the precipice. By one measure, stocks were more expensive relative to earnings recently than at any time since just before the US market crash of 1929.
“If customers are putting new money into the market, we are making more average dollar costs due to the current market situation,” said Jennifer Weber, certified financial planner at Lake Success, NY. “It gives customers peace of mind, especially if they’re worried about the current height of the market. “
For long-term investors, stocks remain a likely source of gains even if short-term declines do occur. Advisors therefore try to find strengths in a sparkling market.
Weber says valuations are more attractive to value stocks after years of strong stock growth. Her team is therefore gradually reducing client exposure to what she calls “blue chip growth” offerings, like household names in the tech industry, in favor of value stocks. “Risk and volatility on the growth side are at their peak,” Weber said.
To manage volatile fluctuations, advisers often look to bonds to stabilize a portfolio. But using bonds to capitalize on a post-pandemic recovery also comes with risks. Jon Henderson, a certified financial planner in Walnut Creek, Calif., Expresses concern over skyrocketing global debt levels fueled by massive government spending.
“It could provide a rude wake-up call if we see a setback from the past two decades of lower interest rates,” he said. “Many investors have never experienced a rise in interest rates. People may not be prepared for this.
To mitigate this risk for its clients, Henderson is considering reducing the average duration of fixed income bonds in the portfolios. This can present a challenge for some retirees or pre-retirees who prioritize a steady stream of income.
“One way to gradually shorten the duration of a laddered portfolio is to take a break and not replace maturing bonds with new, longer maturing bonds that would normally be bought to continue the ladder,” he said. -he declares. Short-term bonds tend to be less sensitive to changes in interest rates than long-term bonds.
The Federal Reserve says it intends to keep its benchmark lending rate near zero until the end of 2023. But some advisers are warning investors not to assume low rates will stay in place during this period. .
“In actual practice, the Fed may fall behind, catch up and be forced to raise rates faster than expected, especially when the economy is overheating,” said Brian Murphy, advisor to Wakefield, RI.
He adds that soaring base metal prices “could portend higher inflation,” as well as huge spikes in commodity prices and even bitcoin.
In the rush to profit from the post-pandemic recovery, exuberant investors could take excessive risks. Yet the cardinal rule of maintaining a cash fund for rainy days matters more than ever in this situation.
“Don’t forget your six-month emergency fund,” Murphy said. While earning next to nothing in cash may cause investors to seek higher returns, he warns that the risk may outweigh the reward of slightly better returns.
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