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Blake Snell. Yu Darvish. Francisco Lindor. Carlos Carrasco. Over the past few weeks, each of these players, responsible for nine combined appearances in the All-Star Game, have been traded elsewhere in multiplayer trades. It was a relatively uncertain time to be a decent-making baseball star, and that doesn’t look likely to change just yet.
The odds are in favor of more star-laden deals by opening day. Who might be on the move and what are the long shots to keep in mind? Below, we’ve identified five “favorites” and five “dark horses” to keep on your wishlist. The difference between these groups is simple: The favorites seem to have a better than average chance of changing teams, while the black horses are more distant.
(Note that players are listed in alphabetical order – except when paired to reduce narrative burden – and that this exercise, like psychic readings, is largely for entertainment purposes.)
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Favorites
1. Nolan Arenado, third baseman, Colorado Rockies
This is going to be familiar to anyone who has been following Nolan Arenado’s trade rumors during the last offseason, but the catch here is simple: he owes him $ 35 million this coming season, after which he can opt out of $ 164 million remaining on his deal. This dynamic, installed at the request of General Manager Jeff Bridich, puts the teams in an uncomfortable position: if they negotiate for Arenado, will they get less than what they negotiated?
The risk of Arenado’s withdrawal has been reduced by its 2020 sub-average and the impact of the pandemic is likely to have over the next offseason. But unless a team manages to convince Arenado to give up his opt-out rights first, there will always be a chance he’ll lock out – if only to have a say in where he lives and plays.
The Rockies have been said to be serious about relocating Arenado as winter enters, but it is not known if they have been able to make any significant progress in their efforts.
2. Kris Bryant, third baseman, Chicago Cubs
3. Willson Contreras, wide receiver, Chicago Cubs
Again, this is going to read as a cut and paste job from last winter, but the Cubs didn’t trade Kris Bryant back then and they’re trying to move him now. Bryant is similar to Arenado in that he’s just had a tough season. The difference is that Bryant will cost just under half of what Arenado will cost in 2021, and there is no doubt about when he will qualify for a free agency: it will be next winter, unless agreed. extension.
In theory, Willson Contreras should be in more demand. His framing parameters have improved over the past season and he has remained an above average hitter with a sense of hard contact and a willingness to walk. Take into account how he has two years of team control left, and he’s going to win a nice consolation prize for the team that abandons the JT Realmuto draw to make sure they get a safety net. above average.
4. Joey Gallo, right fielder, Texas Rangers
The Rangers initially put Joey Gallo on the trading block last summer, and it stands to reason that he will be moved at some point over the next six to 12 months. He only has two years of team control left, a growing refereeing bill, and a risky long-term outlook that doesn’t make him a reasonable extension candidate for the Rangers.
Gallo is a quality athlete who can move around the diamond a bit, and there’s no doubt he can hit the ectoplasm of a baseball. He’s comically inclined to hit and pop, however, and it’s fair to worry about his ability to stay afloat as he gets close to 30 and the bat’s maximum speed.
For what it’s worth, a candidate looking at Gallo’s Statcast data might be encouraged to learn that Texas’ new baseball stadium appears to be suppressing its power output. Baseball Savant’s calculations allowed Gallo to finish with four more homers if he had produced the same slit pattern with the Astros or Phillies, three more with the Red Sox and two more with the Brewers and Nationals. Does all of this really matter? Raise your shoulders.
5. Trevor’s Story, Shortstop, Colorado Rockies
Arenado receives most of the attention, as far as the Rockies’ business goals go, but Trevor Story appears to have the greatest business value. No shortstop has racked up more wins over substitution in the past three years, and he is now entering his running year.
The Rockies have made a habit of spreading their best players just before the clock strikes midnight on their team’s control – Arenado and Charlie Blackmon included – but they should revisit their math after the weak comeback on Lindor. The Rockies could entertain an idyllic scenario in which they trade Arenado and then redirect the freed funds back to Story, but that will require some Sorkinsque stunts. The most likely outcome seems to involve Colorado both moving and starting over.
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Black horses
1. Willy Adames, shortstop, Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have a number of quality prospects on the field approaching their arrival in St. Pete: Wander Franco, Vidal Brujan, Taylor Walls. Sooner or later they will have to create space at the big league level. This is why Willy Adames’ situation deserves to be watched. (Ditto for Brandon Lowe’s, who has other factors that contribute to a deal.)
As the Snell trade indicates, the Rays prioritize maximizing their return. Adames, who just missed Super Two status this winter, will enter the refereeing phase of his career after next season. That, added to the presence of Franco and Walls, indicates that Adames will be dealt with over the next 12 months. The Rays might even want to speed up that timeline in order to undermine a soon to be oversaturated shortstop market.
Next year’s free agent class is expected to include Lindor, Javier Baez, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager and Story. Chances are that one or two of those players will sign again before they reach that point (Lindor and Seager, perhaps), reducing the power of the class. Either way, the Rays can offer teams a chance to save money and heartache by focusing their energy instead on acquiring Adames by the deadline or early in the season. next winter.
2. Shane Bieber, right-handed starter, Cleveland
3. Jose Ramirez, third baseman, Cleveland
Although Cleveland fair Closed the book on the Lindor Era, he’s not far from having to make equally tough decisions regarding Shane Bieber and Jose Ramirez.
Bieber will enter the refereeing phase of his career next winter, having missed Super Two status by about a month. Without Lindor and Carrasco on the books, the Fightin ‘Franconas should be able to keep him around for the short term. When it comes to the long term, Cleveland must strike a balance between maximizing their returns and maximizing their competitive aspirations. It’s a tricky dance with the hitters, and an inherently harder dance to do with the pitchers and their high risk of injury.
Comparatively, Ramirez’s situation is simpler. He will enter the club option phase of his expansion after the coming season. At that point, he will be owed $ 24million through 2023. If Cleveland is to improve Lindor’s return, he may have no choice but to pursue a trade before the 2022 season.
4. Matt Chapman, third baseman, Oakland Athletics
Athletics appear to be balancing similar considerations with Matt Chapman, who will qualify for free will after the 2023 season. It’s more complicated than that, however, for two main reasons: 1) A’s are no longer receiving revenue sharing fund, apparently lowering their salary cap; and 2) the synchronized nature of their nucleus.
The As will drop Khris Davis’ contract after next season, with Mark Canha following him out of free agency. These exits will create about $ 23 million in savings, but much of that surplus will be eaten up by increases at the referee level. Chapman, Matt Olson and Frankie Montas are each in their first year of eligibility, while Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt are one step ahead and Ramon Laureano is a step back.
It’s just a math problem from there, and that math is going to get tough sooner or later if A’s are unable to complete payrolls above the $ 60- $ 70 million range.
5. Ketel Marte, second baseman / center-back, Arizona Diamondbacks
You have to feel a bit about the Diamondbacks, who are now trapped in the same division as arguably the top two teams in the National League. What should Mike Hazen do? Presumably a bit closer to a rebuild, which will almost certainly include an exchange with David Peralta. Zac Gallen and Ketel Marte are less likely to leave, but it wouldn’t hurt Hazen to assess the performance of one of baseball’s worst contracts (from a job perspective).
Ketel Marte signed a five-year pact worth $ 24 million ahead of the start of the 2018 season. He has since racked up 12.7 wins over substitution by hitting .294 / .356 / .502 ( 122 OPS +) and switching between second base and center field. His contract is about as secure as it gets. If he crater (and there’s no indication he will), he’ll make $ 16.8 million over the next two years. If he continues to play like a star, his employer can exercise a pair of team options for the near-criminal price of an additional $ 16 million.
Marte’s versatility makes him a fit on any roster, and his contract makes him a fit on any roster. If Hazen puts him there – and he would be right not to – he could demand a ransom from the king, and he would be well placed to receive it.
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