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The Pentagon has authorized up to 25,000 members of the National Guard to help secure Washington, DC, for President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration day. This is in addition to the thousands of U.S. Secret Service, Capitol Police and DC Police who will be in force for the event.
It’s a massive security presence. For comparison, this represents about half of the total number of American troops currently stationed in Japan. The “wave” of additional US troops in Afghanistan by President Barack Obama at the end of 2009 consisted of 30,000 troops.
And so far no one – from the U.S. Secret Service to the FBI to the National Guard itself – has provided a clear reason why such enormous force is needed to secure the nation’s capital.
At a press conference on Friday, Matt Miller, agent in charge of the Secret Service field office in Washington, told reporters, “We cannot allow a recurrence” of the kind of violence seen in the insurgency on the United States Capitol last week.
Yet no one I spoke to on Friday explained why 25,000 National Guard troops were needed to prevent such a repeat.
The National Guard sent me to the Secret Service. Secret Service spokeswoman Justine Whelan said the force did not comment on “means and methods.” When I continued to want to know the threat, not the means or the methods, she said, “I see the way operational decisions are viewed and made, in consultation with our partners, as a method.”
The FBI directed me to comments made by FBI Director Christopher Wray during a briefing with Vice President Mike Pence on Thursday, in which Wray said: “We are seeing a lot of worrying online discussions – this is the best way I would describe – about several events surrounding the inauguration. “
The office of Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser and the city police department did not immediately respond to requests for comment. However, the mayor said on Friday, at the same press conference where Miller spoke: “Obviously, we are in uncharted waters.”
At present, around 7,000 members of the National Guard surround the Capitol behind a large non-modular fence alongside federal law enforcement such as the Secret Service – which are in charge of security on the day of the inauguration – and local forces like the Washington Police Force.
Together, they’ve established a wide perimeter around the Capitol and the National Mall, making it nearly impossible for any unauthorized vehicle or person to get inside the blocks of the main building.
I know this because I walked the entire perimeter twice this week. I can safely say that what’s already in place is a real fortress, and it’s hard to imagine anyone succeeding in defeating the armed guards like Trump’s friendly mob did on January 6.
Even so, federal officials appear worried about potential violence as Biden is sworn in. Its inauguration rehearsal, initially scheduled for Sunday, has been postponed for security reasons. The National Mall is closed until January 21.
A strong security presence around the Capitol is certainly warranted given the potential threats we already know. The plan might be to provide more than enough security around the inauguration to quickly eliminate any potential threat. It could also be a deterrent: a sufficiently large force could deter anyone with violent intentions from attempting an attack.
The problem is, the public simply doesn’t know the real plan or the true extent of the threat. Having 25,000 National Guard members in place – added to all fencing and local and federal law enforcement – might be the right amount. Or not enough, which would be worrying. Or too much, which would be a failure to adequately assess the situation and a major nuisance to DC residents.
The only people who would give me anything resembling an assessment were three members of the New York National Guard guarding the Capitol on Friday, who spoke to me on condition of anonymity to speak freely and avoid retaliation. They said that, at the moment, they didn’t think more members of the National Guard were needed to protect the Capitol.
More could also exacerbate another problem: the Covid-19 pandemic. Members of the New York National Guard said they did not get tested before taking duty and would spend two weeks in quarantine upon their return home. It is therefore possible that a larger military presence increases the risk of infection in the ranks.
None of this is to say that all of these agencies try to jealously guard information. They may simply want to keep details that might be useful to armed rioters out of the public domain or not derail any of their intelligence-gathering strategies.
Yet it would be good to have a clear understanding of why 25,000 members of the National Guard must be deployed to the nation’s capital to ensure the transfer of power.
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