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The United States has recorded 1.5 million new cases of Covid-19 in the past seven days, according to the most recent data from Johns Hopkins University – an 11% drop from the previous week. Cases fell in 35 states week-over-week, and 18 states saw a drop in the number of deaths.
“These types of fluctuations, on a statistical basis, are not sustainable,” Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins University, told CNN.
“The virus has established itself in the human population and it is not going anywhere,” Adalja said. “We’re going to see a lot of transmission until we cross the collective immunity threshold.”
Looking at a longer term view, the apparent improvement over the past week is much closer to average. Over the past month, the number of new Covid-19 cases recorded each day has ranged from nearly 101,000 to over 302,000; over the past seven days, new cases averaged about 218,000 per day.
These broader trends could indicate that the United States is starting to flatten the curve, said Dr Edison Liu of the Jackson Laboratory, a nonprofit research institution.
Flattening the curve isn’t the end point, but it’s a positive step in the right direction, Liu told CNN.
“The flattening of the curve means that we have stopped the exponential rise in infection; whatever intervention we have done, ”he said. “But that’s only the first step. What we’re really looking for is a steady downward trend.”
It is still too early in the deployment of vaccines to consider vaccines as a factor contributing to the decline in cases. “There hasn’t been enough vaccination to see a full effect nationwide,” Adalja told CNN.
And new, potentially more contagious strains of the virus pose an additional threat, experts say.
“It’s a race against time to reimpose protective behaviors and equip ourselves against the spread of the virus,” Liu said. “If we allow it to spread, you will definitely see an increase in the number of cases.”
Despite what the data may say, experts agree that continued vigilance is essential.
“I would not let my guard down,” Adalja said. “Biologically speaking, nothing changes.”
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