Prospects of Trump conviction erode as GOP speaks out against Senate impeachment process

by



[ad_1]

After Democratic leaders announced they would initiate the process to begin the impeachment trial on Monday, Republicans sharply criticized the procedure – and made it clear they saw virtually no chance of at least 17 Republicans joining. 50 Democrats to condemn Trump and also ban him from leaving his office.

In interviews with more than a dozen GOP senators, the consensus was clear: most Republicans are likely to acquit Trump, and only a handful are likely to turn around to condemn the former president – unless other evidence does not appear or that the political dynamics within their Party change dramatically. Yet Republicans are also reporting that as time has passed since the riot some of the emotions of the day have cooled and they are ready to move on.

“The odds of getting a conviction are virtually nil,” said Senator Roger Wicker, a Republican from Mississippi.

“I don’t know what the vote will be, but I think the two-thirds chance is zero,” said Sen. John Cornyn, a Republican from Texas and a member of his party leadership who called on Democrats to launch the “vindictive trial.”

“Listening to the dynamics – and everything up to this point – it’s going to be difficult to get even a handful of them,” said Sen. Mike Braun, a Republican from Indiana, referring to possible defectors from the GOP. “I think a lot of people are confused that we’re doing this – and everyone thinks it’s some kind of constitutional problem.”

The GOP’s arguments are now becoming more specific, saying the procedure is unconstitutional to try a former president and saying the trial is moving too quickly to give Trump due process, the Democrats categorically reject. But these arguments, Republicans believe, will allow them not to condemn Trump without approving his conduct as the murderous mob that sacked the Capitol on Jan.6 approaches. And Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is likely to land in the same spot. as much of his lecture, GOP senators believe, although the Republican leader said he would listen to arguments before deciding how to vote.

Politically, most Republicans are not keen on breaking ranks and attacking the kind of attacks that were carried out by the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump last week for the second time in his presidency. , this time for incitement to insurgency.

“Many see it as a game of shirts and skins,” said a GOP senator, referring to the number of his colleagues who view the debates as a strictly partisan affair.

For Democrats, the math is also tricky. If they seek a longer trial – even as long as the 21 days of Trump’s first impeachment trial in 2020 – with witnesses, they could satisfy some Republicans who argue the trial must give Trump a proper opportunity to argue his arguments. Still, it could eat away at Biden’s first full month of presidency, while a shorter trial alienates some Republicans.

“I’m not for witch hunts,” said Cornyn, who noted he would be less likely to convict if it was a short trial without witnesses. “This process must be fair and respectable because whatever we do, it’s not just about President Trump. It’s about setting a new precedent and as you know, once we get it right here and there is a precedent, then that’s the rule for the next time that happens. “

Among the most likely GOP defectors is sense. Mitt Romney from Utah, Susan Collins from Maine, Ben Sasse from Nebraska, Lisa Murkowski from Alaska and Pat Toomey from Pennsylvania. But Republican leaders who are closely watching their conference don’t see much of a chance that the list will grow to 17 senators unless something drastically changes or more is learned about Trump’s role in attacking the violent mob. .
“There are less than a handful of Republicans at stake,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham, the Republican from South Carolina who is pressuring his colleagues to stay with Trump or risk “destroying” their party.

And even some who had been seen as possible alternative votes are criticizing Democrats for trying to start the trial immediately, rather than sticking to McConnell’s proposed timeline for postponing debates until later in February.

“It’s very problematic, I would say, for the people bringing this right now from a timing perspective,” said Senate Minority Whip John Thune, Republican No.2, who criticized the conduct. Trump and was also re-elected. in 2022. “I think it will be very important whether or not there is due process.”

Murkowski added: “I think what McConnell proposed was very reasonable, in terms of making sure we have a process. It takes a process and the process has to be fair.”

Collins, the Republican from Maine who sharply criticized Trump’s conduct, said she was consulting “constitutional experts” about the procedure. Asked about the GOP senators’ assessment that Trump will almost certainly not be convicted, she said, “It’s not an unreasonable conclusion, but I just don’t know.”

McConnell himself privately viewed Trump’s handling of the riots with disdain and told people it was at least an impenetrable offense, while even claiming the mob was “provoked” by the former president. But McConnell has made it clear to his colleagues he’s undecided – and several Republicans told CNN this week he risks losing his perch atop the GOP Senate conference if he votes to condemn Trump.

And over the past two days, McConnell has publicly pleaded for giving Trump’s team more time to prepare. With much of the GOP conference now aligned against condemnation, Republicans believe the GOP leader will likely vote to acquit as well.

One of the biggest hurdles that House Democratic leaders will have with Republicans is convincing them that a trial is constitutional, as a group of Senate Republicans have argued in recent days that a trial for a former president who is now a private citizen is unconstitutional. Such an argument could give Republicans a reason to vote to acquit Trump without addressing his conduct surrounding the insurgency on Capitol Hill earlier this month.

“I think it is obvious that the post-presidential impeachment has never taken place in the history of the country for a reason, that it is unconstitutional, that it sets a bad precedent for the presidency and that it continues to divide the nation, ”Graham said Friday.

This is a debate entering unprecedented territory, as the Senate has never held an impeachment trial for a president who stepped down because such a scenario never arose. But Democrats have singled out lawyers on both ends of the political spectrum who say a trial is constitutional. Legal analysts say there is a precedent for a Senate impeachment trial of a former public servant, with the Senate trying War Secretary William Belknap in 1876 after he resigned just before the House voted to impeach him.

“It makes no sense that a president – or an official – could commit a heinous crime against our country and then be allowed to step down in order to avoid accountability and a vote to exclude them from their future office,” said Schumer Friday.

Republican Trump supporters push back.

Senator Josh Hawley, a Republican from Missouri who generated a backlash for joining House Republicans in trying to overturn the Pennsylvania election results, walked away from Trump’s remarks at the rally of the January 6 where he urged his supporters to visit Capitol Hill that day, calling them “inflammatory” and “irresponsible”.

But when asked how they should hold Trump accountable, Hawley said, “Breaking the Constitution and using an unconstitutional process is not the way to do it.”

CNN’s Ali Zaslav, Ali Main and Olanma Mang contributed to this report.

[ad_2]

Source link