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ABU DHABI, UAE – When Conor McGregor is involved, there is always the potential for hyperbole. When you have a star this size, everything tends to go up a notch, including comments related to him or an upcoming fight. But let me say I have really looked forward to this moment since the end of 2016.
Whether all of this comes to fruition, only time will tell. But I believe we could finally realize McGregor’s true fighting potential in 2021. If you go back to the end of 2016, McGregor was the reigning featherweight and lightweight champion. He had avenged his loss of submission to Nate Diaz. He wasn’t considered the absolute best fighter in the world, but he was on the radar for that honor.
Of course, we all know what happened next. McGregor (22-4), who fights Dustin Poirier in an untitled lightweight bout at UFC 257 on Saturday in Abu Dhabi (main card at 10 p.m. ET, buy here on pay-per-view), continued a game of lucrative boxing against Floyd Mayweather in 2017, encountered various legal issues, lost a championship fight to Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2018, did not fight at all in 2019, and competed once in 2020 for less than a minute.
And frankly, all of this is not difficult to understand. McGregor hit a never-before-seen level of fame in 2016 and he cashed in with the Mayweather fight. This match was entertaining and it paid McGregor more than any MMA fight, but it was also a farce and a monumental pivot to what he could have accomplished in MMA.
Crazy to think: McGregor has been in the UFC since 2013, and you could argue he’s only competed twice in his most natural weight class. His featherweight cut was manageable but brutal. And he’s not even close to the average height of a welterweight. McGregor is a lightweight, and we only saw him compete there in 2016, when he won Eddie Alvarez’s belt, and in 2018, when he failed to regain it against Nurmagomedov.
Listen, we know who McGregor is as a celebrity and a public figure. It had a clear impact on the all the combat sports industry, as well as the sports media industry as a whole. And we know a lot about him as a fighter too. We know he is extremely talented. We know he was the first UFC “champion”. We know it’s good – even great.
But we don’t know how awesome he really is. This is the part that remains to be defined. Had he never strayed into the world of a “Money Fight” with Mayweather and more or less disappeared from the competition afterwards, what could he have done? Have you defended the lightweight championship several times? Contested for a third belt? Could he even have beaten Nurmagomedov in different circumstances, if he had maintained all the momentum of 2016?
I really, really hope we find out. McGregor has said on several occasions that he is committed to this 155-pound frame and that he is looking to be active in 2021. We know McGregor is an incredible fighter. I want to discover this year exactly how amazing it can be.
In numbers
6: KO at lightweights for Poirier, tying him third in division history, one behind Melvin Guillard and Edson Barboza.
91: Percentage of McGregor wins that he completed with finishes (19 KOs and one submission in 22 wins).
1.95: Knockdowns every 15 minutes in the cage for McGregor, the eighth-highest rate in UFC history.
6.45: Important strikes landed per minute in the Octagon by Poirier, the third-highest number in UFC lightweight history, behind just 7.46 from Justin Gaethje and 6.83 from TJ Grant.
8: Pay-Per-View Events presented by McGregor since 2015, including this one. Only Daniel Cormier (9) did more. This will be the fourth McGregor PPV main event that will be an untitled fight, the most people in the past 10 years.
Sources: ESPN Statistics and Information and UFC Statistics
Looking back
Since …
Five against five
Latest results from Dustin Poirier
Victory: Dan Hooker (UD, June 27, 2020; watch on ESPN +)
Loss: Khabib Nurmagomedov (Sub3, September 7, 2019; watch on ESPN +)
Victory: Max Holloway (UD, April 13, 2019; watch on ESPN +)
Victory: Eddie Alvarez (TKO2, July 28, 2018)
Victory: Justin Gaethje (TKO4, April 14, 2018)
Most Recent Conor McGregor Results
Victory: Donald Cerrone (TKO1, Jan 18, 2020; watch on ESPN +)
Loss: Khabib Nurmagomedov (Sub4, October 6, 2018; watch on ESPN +)
Victory: Eddie Alvarez (TKO2, November 12, 2016; watch on ESPN +)
Victory: Nate Diaz (MD, Aug 20, 2016; watch on ESPN +)
Loss: Nate Diaz (Sub2, Mar 5, 2016; watch on ESPN +)
Dom & Gil film study
Dominick Cruz explains why Poirier-McGregor 1 acted the way he did:
Gilbert Melendez on how Poirier-McGregor 2 can go differently:
And the winner is …
“I think Poirier is going to try to fight smart and win a mixed martial arts fight, not make it a stand-up battle or a wrestling battle,” said UFC Hall of Famer Urijah Faber. “Conor looks super impressive when it comes to his athleticism. Looks like he takes it really seriously. I lean in Conor’s side again.”
Faber is one of the many fighters and coaches who have weighed in with analysis and predictions. See what they had to say here.
ESPN MMA analyst Gilbert Melendez, two-time Strikeforce lightweight champion and former WEC lightweight champion, delves deeper into the breakdown of the fight. His starting point: that it is a revenge.
“McGregor got the better of Poirier years ago,” writes Melendez, “and whatever happens it will take a heavy toll on the mood of both fighters.”
How to watch the fights
Watch the preliminaries on ESPN or ESPN +: Download the ESPN app | WatchESPN | TV
Don’t have ESPN? Access immediately.
Don’t have ESPN + for foreplay and PPV? Get it here.
Bought the fight on your phone and want to stream to your TV? Find out how here.
There is also FightCenter, which offers live updates for each UFC card.
Saturday fight card
PPV (via ESPN +), 10 p.m. ET
Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor | Lightweight
Dan Hooker vs. Michael Chandler | Lightweight
Jessica Eye vs. Joanne Calderwood | Flyweight for women
Andrew Sanchez vs. Makhmud Muradov | Average weight
Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Ribas | Straw weight
ESPN / ESPN +, 8 p.m. ET
Matt Frevola vs. Arman Tsarukyan | Lightweight
Brad Tavares vs. Antonio Carlos Junior | Average weight
Julianna Pena vs. Sara McMann | Women’s bantamweight
Khalil Rountree Jr. v Marcin Prachnio | Light heavyweight
ESPN +, 7 p.m. ET
Movsar Evloev vs. Nik Lentz | Catch weight (150 pounds)
Amir Albazi vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov | Flyweight for men
The main co-event raises the curtain on a champion
Former Bellator lightweight champion Michael Chandler makes his Octagon debut in the main co-event of UFC 257, against Dan Hooker, No.6 in the ESPN lightweight rankings. Chandler is # 7.
Chandler will be the ninth former Bellator champion to advance to the UFC, with the previous eight going 5-3 in their debut. Those who won: Alexander Volkov, Lyman Good, Ben Askren, Will Brooks and Zach Makovsky. Those who lost: Hector Lombard, Eddie Alvarez and Joe Soto.
Alvarez is the only former Bellator champion to win a UFC title.
Some notable numbers – or why the judges maybe don’t even need to bother to take a seat on the edge of the cage: Chandler has completed 76% of his career fights (nine knockouts and seven submissions in 21 wins) , and Hooker’s finish rate is 85% (10 KOs and seven submissions in 20 career wins).
Two other things to know (ESPN stats and information)
1. Joanne Calderwood, who faces 2019 title challenger Jessica Eye, landed 444 important strikes during her UFC career, the third-greatest in women’s flyweight history. Calderwood is No. 5 on the ESPN chart for the 125-pound division.
2. The opening of the main card is a match between the best Brazilian strawweight Marina Rodriguez, No.8 in the ESPN table at 115 pounds, and Amanda Ribas, 4-0 in the Octagon. Rodriguez is coming off her first career loss, a split decision loss to former champion Carla Esparza in July. Ribas has finished in seven of his 10 career wins (four submissions, three KOs).
ESPN’s Jeff Wagenheim contributed to this bout preview.
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