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There are potentially three Super Bowl-caliber franchise-level quarterbacks in the commercial market this offseason – Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson and Matthew Stafford.
“Potentially” is the key word there, and one that takes center stage like Indianapolis, Washington, San Francisco, Denver, Miami, the New York Jets or any club that wants to participate in what could be a shopping list. historically deep.
Again, the words. In this case: “could be”.
Currently, Stafford is the only quarterback of the three on the trading block. The 12-year veteran and former No. 1 pick in the 2009 draft approached Detroit in early January and asked for treatment rather than undergo another rebuild.
The Lions have agreed, their new GM and their new combo of coaches keen to use whatever they can to help revamp the roster while freeing up space for caps.
Stafford put his house up for sale. His wife posted farewell messages on social media. The Lions have started talking to the teams about what it would take to get it. He left.
As for the other two… who knows?
Watson would like to leave Houston, but the team are loath to trade a 25-year-old star with this level of talent and leadership. Perhaps the relationship is irreparably fractured, but it doesn’t look like the Texans have accepted such a conclusion yet. They still have to hire a trainer. A full blitz to keep Watson will likely follow. You’re just not over someone like him.
The same is true at Green Bay, where Rodgers rocked the league on Sunday with comments that questioned his prospects after 16 seasons with the Packers.
“The future of a lot of guys, they’re uncertain – including me,” Rodgers said.
His tone of voice made him sound like goodbye. The interview took place in the depressing times after a disappointing loss in the NFC Championship game. Rodgers has been less pronounced since. The Packers certainly haven’t decided, and probably won’t be eager, to deal with the league’s alleged MVP, even though they drafted Jordan Love in the first round a year ago.
This is all the curveball for anyone looking for a quarterback.
Teams don’t have to just think about normal questions – can this player help us, is he the best option available, what can we afford to offer as trade compensation, etc. They have to decide without knowing the whole market. It is a huge uncertainty.
“Is Stafford the only guy available or is he the third best guy available?” that’s how an NFL agent put it.
Each NFL team will rank their preferred options, but Rodgers was the best player in the league this season and at 37 and with his experience he could – could – be the best “plug and play” choice.
An equal argument can be made that it is Watson. There is no doubt that it is the long term choice for anyone. Guys like him are hardly ever available for trades. It does, however, have a no-trade clause, which essentially allows it to choose where it goes as well. If you are not her preferred choice then this is a factor in who you go to look for.
Stafford, meanwhile, is on the verge of turning 33 and while his talent and statistical output is undeniable, he’s never won a playoff game or a division title in Detroit. It’s not entirely his fault, but he’s 16 games under .500 as a starter and has suffered some tough knocks throughout his career. Although it is believed that he can win big with a well-run franchise, it is still just a belief.
While he probably commands the least pay in return, Stafford is almost certainly the third pick here, regardless of the ranking of the top two.
He could also be the first choice if he is the only choice.
Detroit is ready to move now. Can the Colts or Niners, for example, afford to sit down or gently play their interest? Maybe a better option comes, but maybe not. Then you’re stuck in a quarterback B-list (hello, Jacoby Brissett) and that gap is significant.
Or do you jump on Stafford to cringe later when Watson or Rodgers hit the market for a similar price?
In this case, timing is everything. Bold decision making too.
Either way, it’s a gamble, with great talent and even higher stakes.
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