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Professional punter Mark DeRosa was on a plane back from Atlantic City after last year’s Super Bowl when he had a clear idea of what was to become one of the biggest scoring players of his career.
DeRosa believed Tom Brady was going to leave New England in the offseason and that Tampa Bay was one of the most likely landing spots. Sportsbooks, however, disagreed and ranked the Buccaneers at around 50-1 in their odds on where Brady would play in the 2020 season. Bookies made Brady back in New England a favorite. very strong.
“The books valued the price like it was a 75% chance it would come back [to New England]”Said DeRosa.” I thought there was a 75% chance he wouldn’t come back, so the market was really far away. “
In Atlantic City for the Super Bowl, DeRosa placed two $ 500 bets with DraftKings on Brady playing for the Buccaneers, at 50-1 and 40-1. Then, on the plane back to Florida, he decided he wanted to descend further to Tampa Bay to win the NFC and Super Bowl the following season. He would need to convince his old college friend and betting partner Zack White that the Bucs were a good bet.
Tampa Bay had just finished a 7-9 campaign in which quarterback Jameis Winston threw 30 interceptions. It was the Buccaneers’ third consecutive losing season, and they were considered long shots again, with Super Bowl odds of 65-1.
“He must have convinced me a bit,” recalls White, a respected gambler in Las Vegas. “His reasoning is pretty much that Brady was going to go.”
White asked DeRosa what he thought Brady’s odds of landing in Tampa Bay were, “because if he doesn’t, then that bet is pretty terrible.”
DeRosa said he had a hunch, a well-reasoned hunch based on several signs that Brady was leaving New England. DeRosa recalled an ESPN 2018 story highlighting a rift between Brady, Patriots coach Bill Belichick and owner Robert Kraft. In August 2019, DeRosa read that Brady had put his Massachusetts mansion up for sale, and he thought it was significant that the six-time Super Bowl champion quarterback let his contract expire for the first time in his career. .
DeRosa believed Tampa Bay – due to coach Bruce Arians’ annoyance with turnover-prone Winston, a roster full of playmakers, hot weather and a lack of income tax – was one of the few cases for Brady.
“The worst case is that you have [Tampa Bay] 30-1 to win the NFC and 60-1 for the Super Bowl, and that’s just the market price, “DeRosa reasoned with White last February.” If that happens, they’ll be like 5-1 and 10- 1, and I really think it’s going to happen. I don’t think he’s coming back. I think he’s going elsewhere. “
White was convinced and went to work in Las Vegas, placing several thousand dollars on the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl at 65-1 and 60-1. Meanwhile, back in Florida, DeRosa was monitoring New Jersey sports betting odds and seeing the Borgata open the Bucs at 35-1 to win the NFC. DeRosa immediately booked a flight to Atlantic City and placed an $ 8,000 bet on Tampa Bay to win the conference at 35-1.
When DeRosa and White finished betting, they had around $ 20,000 invested in the Bucs with odds of around 65-1 to win the Super Bowl and 35-1 to win the NFC. They each took smaller positions in a few teams, DeRosa on the Los Angeles Chargers and White on the Saints, but their biggest investment was in the Bucs.
On March 20, Brady signed a two-year contract with the Buccaneers, whose Super Bowl odds have improved dramatically on sports betting. At the start of the season, Tampa Bay had around 10-1 to win the Super Bowl and 5-1 to win the NFC, as DeRosa had anticipated.
Midway through the season, things weren’t looking great for the Bucs. They lost three of four in November, including a 38-3 loss to the Saints, to drop to 7-5.
“There was a bit of frustration,” White said with a chuckle of Tampa Bay’s midseason fainting, “but it’s the NFL, man, you don’t count nobody till the end.
“There was always so much value locked away in those big ticket tickets,” White added. “You could have locked in a lot of profit before the season even started with the numbers we had.”
They each hedged a bit of their risk by taking the Washington soccer team +9.5 in the divisional playoff round against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay won by eight. For the most part, however, they have held their ground and are planning to do the same for the Super Bowl. The Buccaneers are 3-point underdogs for the Kansas City Chiefs.
“I’m not a big fan of blankets,” DeRosa said.
In their late 30s, DeRosa and White dated Appalachian State together and have been betting professionally for over a decade. They’ve already made six-figure profits on the Bucs and are in position for the highest scoring of their careers in any sport if Tampa Bay wins the Super Bowl.
“We had around $ 11,000 to win $ 400,000 on the NFC Championship,” DeRosa said. “And then we still have $ 8,000 or $ 9,000 to win the Super Bowl at 60-1.
“So come on Bucs.”
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