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Jaylen Brown knows math. A shot from behind the 3-point line is worth more than a shot from inside. A shot closer to the basket is more likely to land than a shot further. Free throws are, well, free, which makes them the easiest shots of all.
“Obviously, threes and layups are shots that we want to take and that are good for our team,” Brown said recently at a Zoom press conference. But he added a caveat: “If I get an open shot in the mid-range, I feel like it’s good for our team too.”
This season, Brown has militarized this approach. Not only does he take nearly twice as many midrange shots as he did last year, but, according to NBA.com tracking data, he also drilled 56.8% of them, with the majority off the dribble. For context, Kevin Durant, one of the best midrange non-dribbling shooters of all time, has never shot better than 55.1% on this type of look in a full season.
Brown, 24, was almost an All-Star last year, but so far this season he’s played at a level that would make him a sure thing for that honor – and put him in the conversation for the player. more improved and an NBA All-Team. He’s still stifling opposing goal scorers and doubling his assist rate, but his biggest leap has come as a goalscorer. He racked up 27.1 points per game, good for seventh place in the league – a massive spike from the 20.3 he averaged last season and more than double his 2018-19 production.
The Celtics have lost Gordon Hayward (their fourth top scorer last season) to free agency Kemba Walker (their second top scorer) for the first 11 games of the year due to a knee injury and Jayson Tatum ( their top scorer) for five COVID-19 games. And yet they’re still 10-7 and circling around the top of the Eastern Conference standings. They can thank Brown’s stellar game – and especially his mid-range shoot.
“Their biggest improvement and where they’ve really developed, outside of dribbling it’s really tough,” said Sixers head coach Doc Rivers, who has faced Brown and the Celtics twice this season. , at a Zoom press conference last week.
The Celtics already had one of the league’s top scorers at Tatum. The emergence of Brown means they now have two attacking studs and – given the youth, versatility and commitment of both players in defense, and the two are signed for several seasons – one of the best pairs. of the league.
Of course, every time a player takes a jump, the question becomes one of sustainability. And if you take a peek under the hood of Brown’s performance, what jumps out is not just how effective he was in the midrange, but also how often he took those photos. and how unlikely it seems to be able to maintain its current effectiveness.
Brown hits the rim less frequently: 29% of his shots come from the rim edge this season, up from 36% last season, according to Cleaning the Glass. He also takes a smaller share of the three. The one hit he takes more frequently is the dreaded midrange long jumper, who made up 19% of his look – essentially double his rating from last season.
Part of that is to be expected due to the Celtics straddling Brown, whose almost 30% use rate – a 6.5 percentage point hike from last season – is one of the highest numbers in the league. This has forced Brown to create more looks for himself rather than relying on the setups of his teammates, which can force a player to be less selective. But that Brown gets bigger on the kind of shots that have proven to be the most difficult (pull-ups), and from the area on the ground considered least effective (midrange), is a red flag. The fact that in a full season he never shot more than 44% of that area from the ground doesn’t bode well for his future prospects either. Also take a look at the best midrange shooters from previous seasons and you’ll see a list of the best free throw shooters in the game – players who regularly convert over 85% of these looks. Brown, on the other hand, is shooting 77% of the line this season and is a 69% career shooter from the Charity Band.
So does all of this mean that Brown’s whole escape was a mirage and we should expect a crash? Not exactly.
For one thing, Brown’s whole attacking game has improved. He tightened his grip and became adept at cornering corners while probing and manipulating defense. “You can tell the game is slowing down for him,” said Micah Shrewsberry, a former Celtics assistant who spent three seasons coaching Brown before taking an associate head coach position with the Purdue men’s team in 2019. . “He sees it differently.”
During Brown’s time on the court this season, 18.8% of his teammates’ baskets came out of his setups. Not only does this almost double his rating from last season (9.6%), but he also ranks in the 89th percentile among all wings, according to Cleaning the Glass.
The fact that his turnover rate has fallen is a testament to increased comfort in the offense quarterback. Brown also completed 6% more of his rim shots and, perhaps more importantly, became one of the league’s top long-range snipers. Last season he shot 38.2% from deep. This season, he drills 44.1% of his triples, while throwing six per game.
It’s also important to remember that not all teams subscribe to Daryl Morey’s absolutism when it comes to midrange shots. The Celtics finished with the fourth best offense in the league last season and the 10th best the season before. Yet during those seasons, and although they are as analytical inclined as any team in the NBA, they finished 15th and 7th respectively in the share of shots taken at deep mid-range (shots taken between 14 and 28 feet).
“Every defense tries to win layups and lines,” Celtics head coach Brad Stevens said at a recent Zoom press conference. “So when your best players have the opportunity to pull up the pace, I don’t think that’s a bad thing. … As long as you don’t decide to shoot them every time, these are the things we like.
In other words: it’s one thing to dance with the ball for three seconds on an isolation, then take a step back up just inside the arch. It’s another to curl up around a screen, see a tall man fall into the paint and decide to stand up for an undisputed elbow jumper. There is a difference between putting pressure on a defense and bailing it out.
Brown understands this and the Celtics are mostly comfortable with the way he gets his shots. The key to the future will be for Brown to slowly refine his approach. Going down the pick and roll a bit more frequently and taking advantage of its improved rim finish and free throw shot would be a good place to start. The Celtics would also like to see him move some of his shots behind the 3-point line and get closer to about 10 deep attempts per game. Part of that will come naturally with Walker and Tatum now back in the fold, which should give Brown more opportunities to step off screens for catch-and-shoot trios, a shot he converts 46.5% time.
But even if Brown sees his midrange shooting numbers drop, there’s no reason to believe he can’t soar in his 40s or even around 50%. He’s a tall 6ft 6in kite, with a high drop, and he’s a good jumper. As Stevens put it, “he’s able to lift and jump over guys and not be affected by some of those challenges. The mid-range plan may not be all the rage, but it’s not dead either. Players like Kawhi Leonard – whose trajectory to the superstardom Brown is starting to emulate – and teams like the Golden State Warriors have proven how valuable this shot can be, especially when games slow down and defenses come into play. Brown should do it. hover around 54 percent to match the current average effective percentage of league field goals, but that also doesn’t account for trips to the floor where the equation is either a brown pull-up or possession wasted.
And anyway, focusing on an upcoming regression would miss the point, which was summed up by Rivers last week:
“Great intermediate game, great to the basket, super three,” he said of Brown. “When you have all of these things, you’re one of the best offensive players in this league. And he is.”
NBA Advanced Stats contributed to the research.
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