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Unfortunately, instead of discussing an upcoming Super Bowl game between the Green Bay Packers and the Kansas City Chiefs, we’re moving into the offseason. And one of the biggest storylines this offseason includes how teams are going to handle what is likely a falling salary cap.
Ahead of the start of the 2020 season, the NFL and NFLPA agreed to potentially lower the salary cap to $ 175 million in 2021 due to COVID-19 and the lack of fans in the stands. This amount would be considerably lower than $ 198.2 million this year.
Now that doesn’t mean the cap will drop to $ 175 million; it could be anywhere in between. And if you’re looking for some good news, Sports Illustrated’s Bill Huber recently posted an article suggesting that the salary cap may be closer to $ 198 million than the $ 175 million floor.
However, for now, this is all speculation and in all likelihood the Green Bay Packers are going to have to make some tough decisions this offseason to create ceiling space. And that means cuts to veterans.
When you look at the 2021 Packers roster on Spotrac, there are four players in particular who haven’t necessarily had the best 2020 seasons and who come with successes bigger than dead shots.
For those unfamiliar with these terms, the cap is what is planned for this season and counts towards the salary cap. The dead threshold is what is still owed to the player from the signing bonus that has already been paid. When the hit heading is greater than the dead heading, it may be advantageous for the team to leave that player to save space.
So with salary cap guru Ken ingalls projecting the Packers at $ 41.7million over the 2021 salary cap, if it does drop to $ 175million, it will be a busy offseason for Brian Gutekunst and Russ Ball – meaning these four players likely have played their latest Green Bay shots.
Green Bay Packers IDL: Dean Lowry
In terms of capitalization savings, Lowry is providing the smallest boost to players on this list. According to Spotrac, its cap hit in 2021 is $ 6.3 million, and it has a dead cap of $ 3 million, creating an additional $ 3.3 million in cap space. If this was a normal year, my gut says they would keep Lowry and add another inside defensive lineman to reduce his role. But this year, I believe Green Bay is taking the extra $ 3.3 million instead.
Lowry got a contract extension after a strong 2018 season; unfortunately, in 2019 and 2020 it didn’t have the same impact. According to Pro Football Focus ($), he totaled 21 presses this season – the same as 2019 – but only 16 saves, which was a drop from 27.
In comparison to 2017, that season, Lowry had 493 defensive shots and recorded 19 presses, three sacks and 19 saves. With over 200 additional shots in 2020, his numbers were almost identical.
In the end, Green Bay will leave Lowry, take the cap savings, and hopefully bring in a legitimate difference maker or at least a younger player with more advantages over a cheaper deal.
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