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U.S. airlines have strongly opposed testing warrants for domestic travel. While nothing has become concrete yet and neither the White House nor the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) have released a plan to require passengers to undergo travel tests, airlines are already expressing their displeasure.
US airlines do not support domestic testing
This week, it was revealed that the Biden administration was considering the possibility of national testing for air travel. It is not clear to what extent officials supported the idea and considered implementing it. However, discussions seemed limited within the administration and did not include industry professionals. This week the airlines objected to it.
Southwest Airlines CEO Gary Kelly said the following during his call for fourth quarter results going against national testing:
“I don’t know the CDC contacted us. By extension, I don’t know if they contacted the airlines for America. But yes, I think it would be a mistake. It is very expensive. As Tammy pointed out in a previous interview to administer the test, we don’t have adequate testing capacity for the country in the first place. Where we need to focus is on the two available vaccines, their deployment and the vaccination of the country, and I would hate to take our eyes off that bullet. “
JetBlue’s COO, Joanna Geraghty, said the following in her company’s earnings call:
“Domestically, it’s hard to practically see anything like this work on this scale. Air transport is only one mode of transport. You obviously have rail, road transport, people have to travel, they will find a way to get there. They will find a way to see mommy, daddy and frankly putting that burden on air travel is, in our opinion, way too much. I’m also concerned about the testing capability in the United States, I think, and I don’t care what you say about Puerto Rico. In many parts of the country, testing windows are scarce and it takes, frankly, several days and some cases are getting results. “
She continued to fear adding an undue burden to crew members who already have to monitor mask compliance in addition to all of their current roles, which would be a logistical burden.
American Airlines has also spoken out against the idea of national testing. CEO Doug Parker said he believes there are logistical challenges in determining how to conduct large-scale national testing. Mr Parker also said there had been no conversation with American about instituting testing.
Why airlines support international testing
Mr Parker explained why airlines are supporting international testing quite succinctly when calling American’s fourth quarter results. He stated the following:
“We support international testing because it’s about making more people feel comfortable crossing borders, and we’ve worked consistently on administration to achieve that.”
The argument for international testing boils down to testing being a way to open up travel while domestic travel, already widely open, suffers. While some airports offer testing and other vending machines to get a home test, the infrastructure is not in place to allow testing every passenger before their trip.
The other reason is that the airlines know that international demand is low. Even for sunshine destinations in the Caribbean and Central America, carriers aren’t seeing the same numbers they saw last year. A lot of people want to fly into the country.
Think from a passenger’s perspective. When they begin their search for where to go, they first consider where they can and cannot go. A trip to see Hobbiton in New Zealand or ski in the Alps is out of the question. There are, however, opportunities in the Caribbean and Central America.
Many of these countries require inbound travelers to show proof of a negative test within days of departure. There is also a mandate that passengers returning to the United States must provide proof of a negative test taken prior to departure. So if they are more risk averse, that same customer will likely choose to cross out international travel.
That leaves domestic travel to the United States. This client will review where activities are open, where restaurants are open, where there are fewer entry restrictions. Passengers will likely limit this to places like Florida, Arizona, or Hawaii in the United States.
National tests will reduce the number of travelers
Frictions in the travel process, whether it be visa requirements or a warrant to take a test, are leading passengers to consider other, easier options. People who want to go on vacation will always find a way to go on vacation. However, this will likely be done via a mode of transport that does not require a trail.
Airlines know this, and they know they can’t afford to lose more travelers than they currently have. On Friday, January 29, the TSA picked up 774,688 passengers entering security checkpoints across the United States. In 2020, that same Friday, nearly 2.2 million passengers took off. And, in 2019, that number exceeded 1.5 million.
The number of passengers is down more than 60% year on year. As evidenced by the list of results achieved over the past few weeks, the current crisis is costing major airlines billions of dollars and is not sustainable. These fewer passengers are also paying their fare less, on average, than they paid in 2020 or 2019, which means more bad news for airlines.
National tests are far from a reality
A big sigh of relief for carriers is that a mandate for pre-trip interior testing is far from a reality. The Biden administration pitched the ideas. Even though there have been some statements that agencies are actively investigating the issue, it is highly unlikely that a testing protocol will go into effect until after consultation with industry groups.
A CDC order requiring face masks for the duration of travel on planes and at airports goes into effect on February 2 and complements President Biden’s order. The ordinance exempts children under two years of age, persons with responsibilities who cannot wear a mask because of their disability or for whom wearing a mask would create a risk to health, safety or tasks professional.
The order allows carriers to impose requirements for negative COVID-19 test results to travel. While it is possible that some airlines will require testing for passengers who cannot wear a mask, an all-traveler coverage requirement imposed by an airline is highly unlikely.
On his company’s earnings call, when asked if he thought domestic testing would become a requirement for domestic flights, Delta CEO Ed Bastian briefly said the following:
“I do not think so.”
Do you think the United States should institute national testing requirements for air travel? Let us know in the comments!
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