Does Bitcoin’s weakness after the ‘Elon Musk pump’ hint at a bull trap?



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Bitcoin (BTC) price shows overall weakness as it struggles to establish $ 34,000 as a support level. Overall, BTC appears to be stagnating with no signs of a near-term relief recovery, leading traders to be cautious.

A worrying trend is that Bitcoin’s volume has stagnated along with its price, with the exception of the ‘Elon pump’ on January 29th. This trend indicates that there is an overall decline in buyer demand from the high of 42,000. $ despite the low region $ 30,000.

4-hour BTC / USDT price chart (Binance). Source: TradingView.com

Bitcoin gets jerky after revisiting $ 38,000

On January 29, the price of Bitcoin hit $ 38,461 on Binance after Tesla CEO and the world’s richest man Elon Musk ostensibly showed their support for Bitcoin.

However, before this rally, on-chain analysts were already warning that Bitcoin’s momentum was slowing down.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, for example, identified strong selling pressure from Bitcoin miners as a sign of a short-term bearish scenario.

Although the price of Bitcoin briefly rose 14%, it fell back to less than $ 34,000 in 24 hours. Therefore, the weakening of indicators on the channel was likely a warning that BTC would retrace most of its ‘Elon pump’ gains.

Ki wrote before the rally:

“The whale trading ratio has hit its highest level in eight months, which means the dollar BTC could have a big red candle if the price drops. It’s supposed to be less than 85% if this bull run is legitimate. Otherwise, it will probably be a bull trap.

The whales likely sold off as the price of Bitcoin abruptly hit the resistance level of $ 38,000, causing a sharp correction.

With choppy chain indicators and some selling pressure coming from miners, traders are also being cautious about long-term BTC / USD nostalgia.

A pseudonymous trader known as “Salsa Tekila” has said he does not use leverage until Bitcoin either breaks out or drops back down to $ 30,000. It said:

“We’re at this point where $ BTC is far enough away from the 30k that I’m not comfortable with any form of leverage, but at the same time I wouldn’t miss it. Therefore, it is best to be there until a big down / legacy open / probably Monday morning. NO LEVER ”

Meanwhile, another popular pseudonym trader known as the “Byzantine General” maintains that the rally is on hold. Therefore, even if Bitcoin is bullish in the macro picture, it is possible that there will be more downside until it sees a convincing breakout on shorter time frames. It Noted:

“The bull run is still on IMO, but the rally is broken. If we claim the annual TWAP again, we can keep pumping, but until then it seems a bit meh. “

Bitcoin price chart with TWAP level. Source: TradingView.com, Byzantine general

What to pay attention

Traders and technical analysts are watching Bitcoin’s reaction to the $ 34,500- $ 35,000 range closely.

If Bitcoin comes out with strength, momentum and high volume, the likelihood of a short-term trend reversal increases.

However, if Bitcoin struggles to retest the resistance level of $ 34,500 and continues to stagnate in the $ 33,000 region, the risk of another breakdown of the $ 33,000 support remains.

Crypto Fear and Green Index (78 or “extreme greed”). Source: digital asset data

Additional signs that the price of BTC could see another pullback include the Crypto Fear and Greed Index remaining at “extreme greed” levels and Google searches for “Bitcoin” have fallen 50% from multi-year highs observed earlier this month.