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The Guardian
Brady or Mahomes? Our Super Bowl Chiefs v Buccaneers predictions
Will Tampa Bay become the first team to win a championship in its own stadium? Or will the reigning champions keep their title? This year’s Super Bowl showcases some of the best talent in the NFL including, clockwise from left, Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. Composite: Reuters, Getty, AP What chefs need to do to win… Be the bosses. It might sound offhand, but no team gives more credit to the “ flipping the switch ” theory than this season’s Chiefs. When they’re fully engaged, when they’re at their peak, no other team in the league can do much to stop them. There are flaws on the defense, but at some point Patrick Mahomes will have the ball. Even with excellent defense, Tampa will struggle to slow down the Mahomes-Hill-Kelce triumvirate. OC With their two best offensive tackles likely to come out of this game, it looks like a tough sledge for the Chiefs to the limit. Look for Andy Reid to compose plenty of screen passes to capitalize on the speed and mobility of his back and his receivers – Tyreek Hill in particular. AL Win the turnover battle. Brady threw three interceptions against the Green Bay Packers, but the Packers could only score on one of the following possessions. If the Bucs do that against KC, this game could end quickly. HF Eliminate the deep ball. Keep two safeties on the field so the Bucs are forced to run. You can’t play chicken with Brady like the Packers did – it only ends up one way. Well, unless the offense blows up too, she can. Reid will need an extra touch of cunning to flummox Tampa. Or drop it on Hill. GS What the Bucs must do to win… Shorten the game. The Bucs have proven that they can switch between a number of styles this season. They can win with their exceptional defense. They can count on Tom Brady to hang on to a shootout. Against the Chiefs, while not as entertaining, they’ll have to rely on run-game to spread the discs against a weak Chiefs front in order to contain the score. Take Brady to the last disc with a chance of winning the game, that should be the plan. OC Sic Jason Pierre-Paul, William Gholston and Ndamukong Suh on the Chiefs’ backup tackles. Mix the first one down a bit. (Transfers to Leonard Fournette & Co are so predictable.) And take every opportunity to connect with downstream receivers, a point Bruce Arians has insisted on all season. If Antonio Brown is looking for a moment to shine, this is it. AL Brady does not want to enter a pitching competition with Mahomes at this point in his career. Its advantage will lie in its experience. He doesn’t want to be a pure game manager here, he’s going to have to tune in on a few long balls to win, but if he focuses on the good game rather than trying the big game, his team has a solid chance. HF Tampa needs to build on its strengths and blitz early and often. They have the pedigree – nine sacks and two wins over Rodgers this season – and can slow Mahomes down by attacking an offensive line missing its two starting tackles. You run the risk of dying from a thousand cuts in the form of Tyreek and Travis, but Todd Bowles has to be brave to limit Kansas City’s score. GS Key Chiefs player… Patrick Mahomes. Of course, it’s Mahomes. Going with someone else would be a hipster choice. The Bucs could execute the perfect game plan. They could play as well as they can on both sides of the ball. Still, if Mahomes shows up and performs at his best, there’s nothing that can be done to stop him. OC Other than the obvious? Let’s go with Tyrann Mathieu, whose powers of anticipation and interruption give off major waves of Ed Reed. He, not Mahomes, is Tom Brady’s real opponent – and the Honey Badger will charge the GOAT for all those 50-50 balls he loves to throw so much. Mathieu intercepted Brady on a tipped ball in their match of week 12. AL Travis Kelce. We’re talking about Brady vs. Mahomes, but what about Kelce vs. Gronkowski? Since Gronkowski’s (temporary) retirement, Kelce has been battling to surpass him as the best tight end in the league. A Super Bowl victory over a diminished Gronk would be more of a symbolic touchstone, but it wouldn’t hurt his case. HF Tyrann Mathieu. We can be sure Brady is going to be taking risks in the air, so Mathieu’s ability to diagnose and demolish receiver routes will have to be drawn to disrupt the Tampa attack. Pressuring Brady to guess whether Mathieu will cross a road consistently could frustrate the veteran from making costly mistakes. GS Key Bucs player… Todd Bowles. Not a player, but the Bucs defensive coordinator. The Tampa defense has played at the championship level all season. There aren’t many schematic fireworks. Instead, Bowles relies on a core group of games and its players all play at the highest level possible. Against Mahomes, he’s going to need some wrinkles or some new looks to create a negative play or two. OC Lavonte David, one of the best linebackers the game has ever seen. His ability to get close to ball carriers and stop or even occasionally reverse their momentum should prove especially useful against a skillful unit of leaders adept at stacking large yards after capture. His autonomy from sideline to sideline will be key to maintaining coordinator Todd Bowles’ fold but don’t break principles. AL Leonard Fournette. Fournette was cut off by the Jaguars and came on as a backup back-up from Tampa Bay. Now he’s putting on his best work of the season in the playoffs, including a stunning touchdown against Green Bay. Another touchdown or two would be nice, but if he can rack up a lot of yards on the first downs, it’ll open the playbook for Brady. HF Shootout beckons despite cannon silence at Raymond James Stadium (Didn’t the cannons also fire for the Chiefs? Why do I care so much about the cannons?). The Bucs can intimidate the Chiefs ‘defense using Mike Evans’ superior size and strength in the red zone. The extra attention he receives will also create holes for others to rack up points. GS A bold prediction… The Weeknd has more than one song. I mean, seriously? The weekend? For the Super Bowl? Am I old now? OC Someone is going to release a trick game. Either the Chiefs are building on the iconic “Four Tops” they threw on the 49ers last year, or the Arians are putting together a nervous retort. Either way, you are going to love the language of football love. AL How about a scoreless first quarter? After all the talk that this is an offensive showdown, maybe both sides feel some performance anxiety right off the bat and we’re seeing a lot of three and-outs, offensive mistakes and even a missed basket in the first 15 minutes. HF Tony Romo sees Bill Belichick in the crowd wearing a Jack Sparrow mask as a disguise. Understandably, Romo can’t contain his excitement and orchestrates a merry field meeting after Brady lifts a Lombardi without his sole mentor. “He’s my boy,” Belichick will say. GS The final score will be… Chiefs 31-24 Buccaneers. Brady and Bowles’ combination is about as good as you might hope for trying to knock the Chiefs off their perch. No one is able to stop the Chiefs, but all the Bucs need is a defense that slows down the Mahomes-Andy Reid machine, even for a possession or two. Tampa has the talent and the people to make such a plan. I have the Bucs giving Brady a chance on the final possession, but just coming up short. The Chiefs’ offensive power, even with all the goodness of the Bowles, is just too overwhelming. And even when the pieces break down, no one is better off scenario than Mahomes. The Chiefs clash and Mahomes wins a second successive MVP. OC Chiefs 30-29 Buccaneers. As exposed as Mahomes imagines himself to the limit, one could easily see the Bucs defense forgetting the QB’s wheels until it was too late. Whether it’s picking up a piece of footage or buying time to shoot darts at Cheetah & Co, Mahomes will eventually take their hearts out. Chiefs AL 34-17 buccaneers. Look for teams to keep him close for a while, but in the fourth quarter the Chiefs will have the edge and salt him with one of those Mahomes bursts where he lands two touchdowns in the blink of an eye. HF Chiefs 30-33 Buccaneers. I said it mid-season and I’ll say it again, Tom Brady and the Bucs will win the Super Bowl. Choosing against Brady is a crazy task, especially now that he’s an underdog. Six titles and your non-favorite team is a testament to how good the Chiefs are, but Brady will have the final say in the game with a last minute drive and maybe on which QB really is the best. Around the same time next year, Tom. GS
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