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Although the B.1.1.7 variant first identified in the UK is currently at a relatively low frequency in the US, the log indicates that it is doubling every week and a half, as has been observed in d ‘other countries. The report estimates that this variant is 35 to 45% more transmissible than strains that appeared earlier in the United States, and that it doubles about every 10 days in the country.
Modeling from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last month predicted that the B.1.1.7 variant could become the predominant strain in the United States by March. He estimates that the virus is about 50% more transmissible.
“Our study shows that the United States is on a similar trajectory to other countries where B.1.1.7 has rapidly become the dominant variant of SARS-CoV-2, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize morbidity and COVID-19 mortality, “researchers wrote in the pre-print of the study, which has yet to be peer-reviewed or published.
In addition to the clusters of cases in California, Florida and Georgia, many cases of B.1.1.7 in the United States have not reported recent international travel, the report says, suggesting that “significant community transmission of variant B.1.1.7 is already in progress in the United States “
U.S. labs are still only sequencing a small subset of coronavirus samples, according to the newspaper, so it’s not clear which variants are circulating in the country. Without “decisive and immediate public health action,” new, more transmissible variants “will likely have devastating consequences for COVID-19 mortality and morbidity in the United States in a matter of months,” the researchers warn.
Helix chairman Dr James Lu told CNN last week the company has been tracking evidence that cases of B.1.1.7 are on the increase, and not just a product of increased genetic sequencing at across the country.
“The rate of growth here in Florida and Southern California is very similar to the type of growth we’ve seen previously in the UK and Denmark … where B.1.1.7 has become the predominant variant strain fairly quickly. “said Lu.
It is not known whether the pace of vaccination in the United States will prevent the strain from taking hold in places where it is not already circulating, he added.
“We are in a race between the vaccine and the new strains,” Lu said.
Dr Anthony Fauci suggested last week that the United States is not vaccinating people quickly enough to stay ahead of the new variants. This could weaken the vaccine’s efforts to reduce cases, he told CNN. “If the variants and mutations come along, and start to become dominant, then that will avoid some of the effects of the vaccine,” he said.
More than 610 cases of the B.1.1.7 variant have been found in 33 states, according to the CDC. Most are in Florida and California. The first American case was announced on December 29, but the first known cases date back earlier. Analysis of the new study suggests that variant B.1.1.7 arrived in the United States as early as late November 2020.
The strain has also been found in at least 80 countries and territories around the world, the World Health Organization said last week.
The United States also had five cases in two B.1.351 variant states first identified in South Africa, and two cases in one P.1 variant state first identified in Brazil.
CNN’s Michael Nedelman and Andrea Diaz contributed to this report.
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