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| 馃攧Last week: # 1 | Record: 19-0. The Zags secured their seventh, and potentially final, Quad 1 victory on Monday night with an 82-71 victory at BYU. There is an interesting debate over Gonzaga vs. Baylor for No.1 status. As of today, I would narrowly put Gonzaga on top. He’s No.1 on four of six team sheet indicators (and No.2 in the other two), has a 7-0 Q1 record and has wins over Kansas, West Virginia, Iowa and Virginia – all on neutral grounds. |
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| 馃攧Last week: # 2 | Record: 17-0. The Bears announced Monday that three more games will be postponed, putting them on the shelves until at least February 20. BU is ranked # 1 in the NET and has a 6-0 record in Quad 1 matches. The Selection Committee has six parameters referenced on its team sheets. Baylor is # 1 in four of them (NET, BPI, KenPom and Sagarin) and # 2 in the other (KPI, Strength of Record). The question has changed from “Can Baylor go undefeated?” “Will Baylor be able to play at his previous level when he returns?” |
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| 猡达笍Last week: # 7 | Registration: 16-4. No one is going to place Ohio state with the other two yet, but know this: The Buckeyes’ eight Quad 1 wins (up from nine until the NET refreshes overnight) overtake the rest of the sport. OSU is 8-3 in the first quarter and also has six road wins, which is the closest match to Baylor and Gonzaga among non-average teams. Monday night’s victory in Maryland took OSU from 7th to 6th place in the NET. There are three obvious # 1 seeds at this point, so you can start sorting out the rest. |
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| 馃攧Last week: # 4 | Record: 13-1. The Wolverines are finally set to return to Wisconsin this weekend. Michigan is 4-1 in Quad 1 games. That’s a low inventory, but the Big Ten will get that number of five to 10 Quad 1 games for this team by the end of the month, at provided that there are no more stands in the calendar for UM. All things considered at this point, this is probably the final # 1 seed. |
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| 猡达笍Last week: # 9 | Record: 13-3. The Wahoos are # 5 here but # 7 in the latest NET ranking. But they have a lot to prove with a 2-2 Quad 1 record. This team’s best win is at Clemson. His next best win is at Notre Dame. There is also this loss on neutral ground against San Francisco that we cannot forget. Thankfully, the UVAs have played so well for much of the past month and have continued to climb the rankings going 9-1 since Christmas. |
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| 馃敾Last week: # 3 | Record: 12-2. The Wildcats earned more consistent respect in human rankings than in computer rankings. This is a 2-2 Quad 1 team that has played 14 games in total and really doesn’t have any contention for seed 1 status at this point. VU is # 11 in the NET, with its highest ranking in any of the six measures being # 7 in Strength of Case (SOR). The victory in Texas was worth a lot for a long time, but a victory in Creighton this Saturday would really improve Jay Wright’s team profile. |
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| 猡达笍Last week: # 15 | Record: 15-3. Trojans broke into the AP rankings this week, but I would say this group is still not getting the attention it deserves. USC had high-profile wins over BYU on neutral ground in Arizona and Stanford, in addition to a home win over UCLA. I’m not saying he’s a No.3 seed so far, but he’s clearly a No.4 seed at worst. A 3-1 mark in Quad 1 with only a few more high-end games on the schedule. It looks like the best Pac-12 team. |
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| 猡达笍Last week: # 16 | Record: 13-3. Here is a team with a real black or white metric gap. You see the strong case. Still, Missouri is # 35 in BPI and # 32 in Sagarin … while also ranking THIRD in KPI and Fifth in SOR. It’s wild. To date, Mizzou is 25th in the NET and has a 4-3 Quad 1 record, with no losses outside of this quadrant. |
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| 馃敾Last week: # 5 | Record: 16-2. Unfortunately for the Coogs, the 112-46 nudge on Notre-Dame du Lac this weekend does not count in this team’s resume. Houston is not receiving any help from the American this season. The team’s top three wins include a nice over a neutral on Texas Tech, then a sweep from SMU. It’s going to have to win to give this two-losing team – which is No.5 in the NET – any chance on a No.2 seed. |
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| 馃敾Last week: # 8 | Record: 14-4. Big disparity between the love of Hey Nineteen and what almost every other ranking system thinks about the Hokies. Thirty-fourth at NET, 35th at KenPom … but 15th at SOR! Two major wins to note, one against Villanova, a landmark victory in the Bubbleville era. The other coming against Virginia (at Virginia Tech) on January 30. No ugly losses here. Long term projection, I think Virginia Tech’s cap is a # 3 seed and its bottom is a # 7. |
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| 馃攧Last week: # 11 | Record: 10-3. The Seminoles are preparing to play their 14th game of the season on Saturday at home against Wake Forest. FSU’s best wins are at Louisville and at home against Florida by 12. There’s a weird home loss to UCF, which is Quad 3, and why the Noles are No. 24 in the NET. Just four chances (2-2) in Q1. They are a talented team who can make a move north in the coming weeks if the schedule can stay intact. |
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| 馃敾Last week: # 10 | Record: 16-5. The only team that has played only one Quad 4 match in this ranking is Villanova. The lack of low-end competition could ultimately boost Bama and help him secure a No.2 seed next month. The tides (NET = n 掳 9) are 5-3 in Q1, 7-1 in Q2 and 3-1 in Q3. What’s interesting is that there’s still a relative disagreement in predictive metrics at this point, given this team’s ranking. Bama is n 掳 6 according to KPI but n 掳 11 by Sagarin and n 掳 13 by BPI. |
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| 猡达笍Last week: N / R | Record: 13-5. For the first time in a while, welcome back, Illini. The NET’s No. 4 team in Illinois is 7-4 in Quad 1 games. Those seven W’s are more than any other team except the state. Ohio. The Illini have won four straight and could have the best five-game losing streak in 18 games of any team in recent memory: Baylor on a neutral; in Missouri; to Rutgers; against Maryland; against the state of Ohio. |
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| 馃敾Last week: # 13 | Registration: 13-4. Volunteers’ victories in Missouri, at home against Colorado and at home against Kansas will go a long way in maintaining the profile of this team. UT has a 4-4 Quad 1 record, but sits remarkably at # 8 in the NET. I can’t catch Alabama in the SEC standings but still seem to have a good chance on a No.3 seed from today. |
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| 馃敾Last week: # 6 | Record: 12-5. The CV has undoubtedly taken a huge hit lately. Texas are 2-4 in their last six years, with their only wins in that streak being a sweep of humble Kansas state. UT, in particular, had road victories over Kansas and West Virginia. He’s 21st in NET and currently holds a 4-5 rating in Quad 1. A bit of a similar overall profile to Kansas at this point, really. |
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| 猡达笍Last week: N / R | Record: 14-5. Mountaineers go up and kick Texas Tech out in the process. West Virginia is now 17th in NET and 5-5 in Quad 1 games. No losses outside of the upper quadrant, and only one game in Q4, which will end up boosting WVU (and / or serving as a cushion) to prevent it from slipping maybe a seed lower than expected. Almost no bad team on its board will matter when the committee relates the stats next month. |
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| 猡达笍Last week: N / R | Record: 17-3. The Ramblers are in the Top 25 AP this week and are currently projecting themselves as a better team than the one that made the Final Four. But their only Quad 1 game was on December 15 in Wisconsin and they lost by 14. And in Quad 2, Loyola Chicago is 3-2. Two huge Q1 road games against 18-1 Drake await you this weekend. This team is 12th (12th!) In the NET, which is incredible, but as low as 57th in KPI and 46th in SOR. |
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| 猡达笍Last week: # 19 | Record: 20-1. Here is a team whose CV appears to have been inked on rice paper. The Bruins are in love here with a 20-1 record and a 15.3-point winning margin. But SOR is Belmont’s only metric, which gives him hope for an at-large at this point. He is 43rd in Strength of Record, but 67th in NET and all the way down to 200 in KPI and 97th in Sagarin. The best win is at Murray State, who at 9-9 and 145th at KenPom are playing well below expectations this season. The only other loss this team could endure and keep hope for an at-large would be in their title game. |
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| 馃敾Last week: # 18 | Record: 12-5. I think the Sooners’ recent winning streak against Kansas, Texas and Alabama will end up putting OU in a really good position on a nice seed line. Lon Kruger’s team woke up at # 19 in the NET on Wednesday. I’ve highlighted a few teams above that show large variations between measures; Oklahoma is not. The OU is in all four locations of the six metrics. All of his losses are in Quad 1, where he holds a 4-5 record. He will drop to 5-5 with a win in West Virginia this weekend. |
