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The NFL and NFLPA will likely find a way to increase the salary cap. Whether or not it hits the $ 190 million to $ 195 million stratosphere – which the most optimistic agents hope – remains to be seen, but I’d be surprised if it wasn’t at least around $ 185 million.
The idea of it hitting the potential low of $ 175 million seems remote at best from what I hear, but I still caution against those who project the normal binge eating at the start of the year of the league we are used to. I continue to see plenty of signals that homeowners, stung by the pandemic and the inability to meet their income goals in 2020 and possibly 2021 as well, will be ready to hold more on the spending line and aim for the middle class in the NFL, and it could result in an offseason that feels more like the drip nature of the offseason in baseball, rather than the normal pace of a typical hot season.
Even with long-term TV deals on the horizon, if a homeowner was inclined to want to negotiate in 2021 and push their way into the market, there are plenty of reasons (excuses?) To do so. The uncertainty over the degree of fans in the stands in 2021, after having hardly any in 2020, and with a stagnant ceiling at best and with the final details of the ceiling that will likely not be finalized until shortly before the start free agency next year, everything creates a potential climate for owners to sit back and wait, rather than rushing with two hands, throwing contracts to fill as many holes in the list as possible. in a month.
A year ago, only half of NFL teams were spending up to the salary cap; Is there really a reason, under these circumstances, to project even this repeating number, let alone a surge? Don’t we think there would be a financial incentive to try to bide his time in the hope that an entire class of players who could normally make $ 3-5million could be obtained for nearly $ 1million? of dollars? There’s going to be an eruption of players stranded waiting for the best deal a year, prove it they can wrap up, I would say, and some might start grabbing the humble bird in hand ASAP.
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The group of teams that obviously seem to spend is not that long. The Eagles and Saints have fueled this fire in recent years, but both face significant capping issues and won’t be able to push the market to anything close to what we’ve seen in the past. The Patriots have as much headroom and roster flexibility as anyone, but do we really think Bill Belichick is going to go wild throwing the best of breed money and resetting the market to multiple positions? The Falcons and Rams – also never opposed to creating new spending standards in certain positions – have more or less made their bed for 2021. The Cowboys could be stranded by a quarterback on a second franchise tag counting close to $ 40 million against their cap through most, if not all, of their offseason.
It’s sub-optimal from a spending standpoint.
These are probably the usual suspects – historically bad teams under new management with more headroom than they know what to do with, who have to pay too much for top free agents to wink at them. period of the year. This will drive the engine – as it always does – but I’m not sure there will be the depth of competition that we normally find for these players. I think half a dozen teams will be ready to dip their toes into the deepest free agency, led by the Jaguars and Jets, and maybe the Texans. The Raiders’ inability to find notable defensive players across multiple drafts could cause them to chase after the best linemen, linebackers and defensive backs they can find, but who else among the .500 or better teams have them. push to? The Colts will be aggressive – but within reason under judicious GM Chris Ballard – and the Bengals certainly have no shortage of needs to fill, but do we think Mike Brown will want to establish new spending along the offensive and defensive line? , where He needs help? I have some reservations. Maybe the Titans?
Teams that appear to be on the verge of perhaps making a breakthrough – like the Bills and Ravens – prioritize maintaining and expanding their own top players, a process that began last year for them and which is yet to include MVP caliber quarterbacks in their mid-20s. Hard to see them doing a bunch of free agent splash. The Packers need to navigate trying to keep their roster with Aaron Rodgers not rejuvenating, which could limit their propensity to make big additions.
Once you factor in the bonus of players who are likely to receive a franchise tag, many of them for the second year in a row, and this free agent class is losing a lot of its luster. Regardless of the final cap number, I have reservations about what the league holds. With the broadcast money and the game money still going on, and still really pouring into this offseason, I anticipate many owners will be operating in a more limited spending capacity in 2021. Hope I am wrong. .
A Wentz deal was never going to be easy in a limited market
The chicken game played between the Eagles, Colts and Bears on Carson Wentz has never been particularly close to being resolved, despite what so many people have reported breathlessly around the Super Bowl, and his bonus of $ 10 million due next month remains an elephant in the room. . The Eagles paid Sam Bradford a huge amount of money not too long ago, and then distributed it to the Vikings for a first-round pick anyway. Some believe the property might be willing to – or ultimately just have to – swallow that kind of a blow again to make it easier to get maximum compensation for what amounts to Philly’s backup QB at this point. A tough pill that won’t come down easily, but I don’t see the type of offers going their way increasing much unless that financial burden is borne by the Eagles. There are a ton of options, including the project, and a very limited market for Wentz. It was never close, it was always going to be tricky and although I expect Wentz to be gone in the weeks to come, it was never going to be easy.
Broncos likely to score Simmons again
I made an oversight in my column last week by projecting the franchise etiquette class for 2021 – which is meant to be robust and with a number of “repeat offenders” if you will, in clubs that will apply the etiquette for. a second year in a row on the same player (or at least seriously considering it). The Broncos paid for the safety of star Justin Simmons there is $ 11.4 million on the franchise label and sources tell me they are very likely to apply it again in 2021 in an attempt to strike a long-term deal with the playmaker. New GM George Paton won’t want to start his regime watching one of his best players come out and I would be shocked if Simmons isn’t tagged again in a few weeks. Chances are he’s had a lot of company for a year.
Three teams stand out as brown contenders
The Jaguars, Chargers and Colts make a lot of sense as potential contenders for Ravens left / right tackle Orlando Brown Jr. as his agent continues to pursue trading options after being granted permission to do so. All of them have at least some degree of interest, the Chargers and Jaguars have or are about to have a potential generational QB on his rookie deal who is in dire need of significantly improved protection, and Brown has shown some ability to play his favorite position – left tackle – at a very high level to replace injured All-Pro Ronnie Stanley last season. This will likely persist for a while as teams wait for the salary cap and teams like the Colts and Bears sort out their quarterback options. But the initial interest was enough that a win-win that matches the Baltimore player’s worth and gets him paid as a left tackle is hardly out of the question.
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