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Less than two weeks ago, Virginia was atop the ACC rankings, rising in the AP poll every week and a devious candidate to finish seed on Selection Sunday.
After three straight losses – the last at home Wednesday against NC State by a final score of 68-61 – the Cavaliers see their NCAA tournament standings fade quickly and questions begin to be asked about the depth of a run in Virginia – – a pre-season top-five team – can really arrive in March.
The first two losses in the three-game losing streak were understandable: on the road at Florida State, then on the road in the last minute against a hot Duke team. But Wednesday’s loss to NC State was different. First, it was Virginia’s first home loss of the season and her first since January of last season. NC State was 10-9 overall and 6-8 in the ACC entering the game, with just one win over a team ranked in the NET’s top 80.
So what’s going on with Tony Bennett’s team? The most notable issue is at the defensive end of the floor, the region where Virginia ranks among the nation’s elite each year. Florida State, Duke and NC State all scored at least 1.08 points per possession against the Cavaliers, a number they only allowed four times last season. While still the best defensive team in the ACC, they are allowing 0.99 points per possession in conference – their most since the 2010-11 season.
Offensively, two things stand out. First, Virginia has struggled to get baskets late in games or late in the shot clock when games fail. The Cavaliers do not have players who can consistently beat their defender out of dribbling and creating scoring opportunities, as they have in the past with Ty Jerome and De’Andre Hunter and Malcolm Brogdon. Kihei Clark has managed some punches in his career, but he is not expected to be offended. The second problem is the perimeter shot. Virginia gets a significant chunk of her points behind the arc, but Florida State and Duke both went over 3s than the Cavaliers, then shot 7 in 25 from perimeter against NC State.
Virginia needs to turn the ship around quickly, with just two games remaining before the ACC tournament, because the Cavaliers’ NCAA tournament profile isn’t too impressive when you start to peel off the layers. Metrics really like Virginia, including the NET, KenPom, and ESPN’s Strength of Record and BPI. As long as those numbers are right, the Cavaliers won’t fall too far – but that’s their only saving grace at the moment. Virginia is 3-4 against opponents in Quadrant 1, with two losses from Quadrant 3 (although NC State will likely reach Quadrant 2 territory after beating the Cavaliers).
It’s a summary completely devoid of anything that looks like a marquee victory; the Cavaliers’ best wins this season have come twice over Clemson, Georgia Tech and North Carolina. None of those three teams are above a seeded 7 in Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology and Georgia Tech isn’t even in the intended field. Their quality wins just don’t compare favorably to those of Texas, Kansas, USC, Creighton and teams in that area. Considering Virginia was a solid 2 seed just a few weeks ago, moving up to five or six seeds three games later would have been hard to fathom.
Virginia will always be a team that no one wants to face in the NCAA tournament – the Cavaliers are still the defending national champions, after all – but because they lack playmakers on the offensive side and their defense doesn’t. is not as stingy as it has been in recent years, their margin for error seems much thinner.
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