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Photo-illustration: images of vultures and spotlights
Each week until March 15, when the Oscar nominations will be announced, Vulture will consult his crystal ball to determine the development of fortunes in this year’s Oscar race. In our “Futures at the OscarsWe’ll let you know about insider gossip, analyze all new developments and follow the industry buzz about who’s up, who’s down and who is currently leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.
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Nomadland
Congratulations, Nomadland: You are the first candidate for best film to meet sustained political criticism. (I would say that at the moment the level of fury is at ‘pushback’, and has yet to degenerate into ‘controversy’, let alone ‘reaction’.) The question is whether the film’s treatment of Amazon’s fulfillment centers are changing the company. real-life labor rights issues – a fair question to ask, sure, but I suspect it will struggle to resonate with Academy members, who inhabit an epistemological universe where the corporate giant is much less controversial. Indeed, many in Hollywood can trace their salaries back to the pursuit of Oscar gold by Jeff Bezos, so I suspect this story will likely remain a movie on Twitter. Yet it is a sign that Nomadland bears the traditional mark of a favorite: a giant target.
The Chicago 7 trial
In the meantime, NomadlandThe greater competition of the company continues its success with the precursors. The essay drama earned a surprise nod to this week’s Art Director Guild nominations, edging out Emma. for a place in the Period category despite the fact that approximately 73% of its execution time was spent in a courtroom. Following the nomination of the stunt ensemble to SAG, this is the second unexpected revival for Aaron Sorkin’s film, which has shown in all guilds except Hair & Makeup so far. (Alone Promising young woman did better.) Chicago 7 gaining momentum and has managed to avoid any major backlash. We will see if these two elements are still valid after the Golden Globes.
Current predixerunt
The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Ma Rainey’s Black Background, Mank, Minari, News of the World, Nomadland, One night in Miami, Promising young woman, The Chicago 7 trial
Best director
Lee Daniels, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
It’s Christmas in February! Because the Oscars extended its two-month eligibility window, this weekend brings a last-minute scramble for competitors to the race. Daniels’ biopic Billie Holiday is one of them, and while critics have a lot of praise for star Andra Day, they are mixed on the director’s maximalist melodrama. THRDirector’s David Rooney denounces the filmmaker’s “picky stylistic flourishes – random black and white, slow-mo, jumps, mixed timeline,” dubbing the film as “mess, albeit absorbing.” With a lot of understated drama in the mix, the chase could use a bit of flash, but Daniels seems unlikely to repeat his Precious nomination this year.
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
Talk to VarietyThis week, King expressed his frustration with the Oscar buzz surrounding his film, telling host Clayton Davis, “I’m better off when I don’t care. They aren’t going to give me shit anyway. What’s more depressing – that he’s right or that we all continue to torment him psychologically anyway?
Current predixerunt
Lee Isaac Chung, Threatening; David Fincher, Mank; Regina King, One night in Miami; Aaron Sorkin, The Chicago 7 trial; Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Best actor
Anthony Hopkins, The father
Sony Pictures Classics chose to donate The father the slowest of the reels, holding the drama of dementia until the last possible moment. Ironically, he was one of the first major actors to screen, premiering at Sundance last January. Even then, experts ranked Hopkins as a sure-fire Oscar nominee, and given that the Welsh actor has received his best reviews in decades – Justin Chang hails his “extraordinary psychological cunning and emotional strength” – those- these seem to be the only early 2020 predictions that will actually come true. A surprise victory at the Golden Globes, where Hopkins sort of never won, would enshrine him as Chadwick Boseman’s strongest challenger.
Tom Holland, cherry
Oof. cherry was supposed to be the big piece at the Netherlands Oscars, but the Russo Brothers’ PTSD drama is being saved as a shallow scorsese pastiche, scoring a dismal 36% from Rotten Tomatoes. Consider this one sautéed.
Current predixerunt
Ahmed Rice, Sound of metal; Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s black background; Anthony Hopkins, The father; Gary Oldman, Mank; Steven Yeun, Threatening
Best actress
Andra’s Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
The R&B singer gives a fearless performance in her first lead role, and even critics who panic at the film are singing praises to her. “Although its resemblance to the real vacation is mostly circumstantial”, says THAT ONE‘s Leah Greenblatt, “She evokes Billie’s blues not only from her own throat … but also from the bottom of her soul.” Day is unlikely to win the Globe this weekend and miss the cup with SAG and the BAFTA long list, so she’ll have to hope those rave reviews are enough to keep her on the Academy’s radar when it matters the most.
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
McDormand, normally shy of the press, gave New York a rare profile Times this week, a story that portrays her as a performer who is very careful about what she gives in Hollywood. Those limits could be the rub that keeps her from winning her second Best Actress Award in four years: Voters like to feel like they’re doing winners a life-changing service, and the ‘I want it’ element of awards season has never been McDormand’s vibe.
Current predixerunt
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s black background; Andra’s Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday; Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a woman; Frances McDormand, Nomadland; Carey Mulligan, Promising young woman
Best Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Chicago 7 trial
If you subscribe to the idea that Chicago 7 is one of Best Picture’s favorites, you probably think it’s going to take the screenplay as well. But unless we’re in a Projector situation, they usually gain something else, too. This is the strongest argument for the victory of an actor supporting Baron Cohen; the second strongest is that giving him this prize would be a way of also recognizing him for Borat. The reaction in the Hall (s) of the Globes, where the British comedian is nominated for both projects, will be a sign of how the wind is blowing.
Trevante Rhodes, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
The United States vs. Billie Holiday has a lot in common with Judas and the Black Messiah – two stories of the FBI shooting down a charismatic figure while sending a black double agent to infiltrate their inner circle. Rhodes has the role of LaKeith Stanfield here, but the Moonlight star curiously underestimates the character’s internal conflict. The most memorable aspect of his performance ends up being his anachronistic abs.
Current predixerunt
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Chicago 7 trial; Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 bloods; Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah; Jared Leto, The small things; Leslie Odom Jr., One night in Miami
Best Supporting Actress
Olivia Colman, The father
As a long-suffering girl from Hopkins, Colman carries an equal share of The fatherthe emotional charge of Christy Lemire, calling her “formidable as always”. As with McDormand, the fact that Colman won so recently probably counts with Oscar, but doesn’t negate a surprise victory at the Globes, where the crown star beats 1,000 for his career.
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Of course, the woman Colman beat for that Oscar is also nominated for the Globes. I expect the HFPA would rather hand out the Supporting Actress award to their longtime favorite – she was nominated for 15 Globes, winning three times – and thus kick off the Glenn Close Apology Tour.
Current predixerunt
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy; Olivia Colman, The father; Amanda Seyfried, Mank; Yuh-jung Youn, Threatening; Helena Zengel, World news
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