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Based on the data, in the Best Pictures category, six films are the top favorites for nominations.
Using historical data to predict the Oscars – an exercise I’ve been through each of the past ten years – is ultimately a statement that the past is a decent predictor of the future. My model includes data from a number of Critical Circles rewards, Guild Rewards, and other sources, weighting each one based on how they predicted each category over the past few years. . All things considered, the model performed quite well. Last year’s nominees’ predictions were 40/44, and last year’s price predictions were 17/21.
But what happens when the present is so strange that it bears no resemblance to the past? Welcome to the strangest year of Oscar prediction. From new eligibility rules to new BAFTA voting procedures and a new awards schedule to watching all movies at home, it will be an awards season like no other. Time will tell what that means for the reliability of any prediction system, but the tradition must continue: here are my 2020 Oscar nominated math predictions.
Better image
In many ways, these rankings could serve not only as a prognosis for the contestants, but also a current state of the race six weeks before the Oscars. Nomadland is in the lead for the best picture, but it is very likely that it competes with Promising young woman, The Chicago 7 trial, Threatening, Mank, and One night in Miami. These six films all look better than a 7 by 8 photo of the cut. The second level includes Da 5 bloods, Ma Rainey’s black background, and Sound of metal. These three people have a good chance of being nominated, although that is far from guaranteed. And they will need a very solid race in March and April to try to hoist the final trophy. Even if all nine of those math favorites enter, that still leaves room under the new rules that guarantee ten nominees. No film exceeds 50%, but Next movie Borat, The father, Judas and the Black Messiah, and World news are the most likely entrants.
Best director
There is only one lock to a Best Director nomination, and unsurprisingly, it’s the director of best favorite in photography. Chloe Zhao has managed to mix professional actors with people playing themselves in the all-American history of Nomadland, and she is the clear leader to win this category on April 25. The rest of the Directors Guild nominees claim the last four places in the top 5: Emerald Fennell (Promising young woman), Aaron Sorkin (The Chicago 7 trial), David Fincher (Mank) and Lee Isaac Chung (Threatening). But these four aren’t as sure as Zhao, which could make way for one of the Regina Kings (One night in Miami), Kelly Reichardt (First cow) or Spike Lee (Da 5 bloods).
Best actor
The late Chadwick Boseman ranks not in one but two categories – best actor for Ma Rainey’s black background and best supporting actor for Da 5 bloods. But it’s in the main category where he’s most likely to win an Oscar posthumously, potentially joining Peter Finch in Network as the only Best Actor winners to do so after they die. Anthony Hopkins (The father), Riz Ahmed (Sound of metal) and Gary Oldman (Mank) should set their first alarms for Monday morning. But fifth place is up for grabs.
Best actress
Frances McDormand (Nomadland) and Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a woman) has received nominations from the Screen Actors Guild, BAFTAs, Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. That’s good enough for a tie for first place. Carey Mulligan (Promising young woman) and Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s black background) missed the BAFTA nods, but that anomaly aside, they got through the start of awards season. Andra’s Day (USA vs Billie Holiday) can’t rest so easily, having missed a Screen Actor Guild nomination to Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy). That could make room for either Adams comedy or Golden Globe winner Rosamund Pike (I care a lot) to take Day’s place on the shortlist.
Best Supporting Actor
On the eve of the nominations, Best Supporting Actor looks like a three-way race between Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Leslie Odom Jr. (One night in Miami) and Sacha Baron Cohen (The Chicago 7 trial). That leaves two points, and no one has a better photo than 50-50 to take one. Golden Globe nominee Bill Murray (On the rocks), BAFTA candidate Paul Raci (Sound of metal), SAG candidate Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 bloods) and Golden Globe / SAG nominee Jared Leto (The small things) can all claim, but none of them have convincingly swept the rewards season to prove they’re a lock for a slot machine. And don’t be too surprised if the fifth candidate comes entirely from outside this group.
Best Supporting Actress
Only Mahershala Ali has won two interim Oscars in the past ten years, but a number of nominees could join him this year, including 2019 winner Olivia Colman. After winning the top category for The favourite, she will now seek a support victory for The father. But close behind her is Maria Bakalova (Next movie Borat) and Youn Yuh-jung (Threatening). Math says the three most likely actresses for the bottom two spots are Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Helena Zengel (World news), and the eternal suitor Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy). Past laureates Jodie Foster (Mauritanian) and Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a woman) are also in the running for this race.
Best Original Screenplay
The first two couldn’t be more different. Aaron Sorkin (The Chicago 7 trial) is three times nominated and sole winner for Social network. Chicago 7 is the kind of movie Hollywood loves to make, and Sorkin has brought a compelling true story to life while also making it relevant to the present. Emerald Fennell (Promising young woman) is seeking her first nominations this year, and does so with a brilliantly original story that uses wit, horror and heartbreak to fiercely condemn society’s treatment of women. Who will they be up against? Jack Fincher, posthumously nominated for his son’s film Mank, is a probable bet. Darius and Abraham Marder (Sound of metal) and Lee Isaac Chung (Threatening) could easily be # 4 and # 5. From there, things get more unpredictable. BAFTAs have done a good job in the past predicting nominees in script categories, so their 2020 nominees do well on this list, but with BAFTAs moving to a new jury selection system this year, we’ll have to wait. to see if they are as correlated with the Oscars as in years past.
Best Adapted Scenario
Chloe Zhao, also favored to win Best Picture and Best Director, tops the Best-Suited Screenplay ranking. There’s a good chance it goes by Florian Zeller / Christopher Hampton (The father), Ruben Santiago-Hudson (Ma Rainey’s black background) and Kemp Powers (One night in Miami) to succeed. All other possibilities are less than 50 percent, so at least one competitor will emerge on Monday morning with a delicious surprise. And indeed, that’s one of the great, terrible things about the Oscars – it’s a zero-sum game. For every upheaval – and there will surely be upheaval, especially in such a strange year – one candidate comes out behind, but the other is perhaps the happiest surprise of his life.
Ben Zauzmer is the author of Oscarmetry: the math behind Hollywood’s biggest night.
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