Possible ‘widespread severe weather threat’ for millions in the south this week

“We have increasingly hot and humid air over the Gulf of Mexico which will rapidly lift northward – these large-scale conditions are favorable enough for severe storms. We think some of the little details that we often see on high-end days, especially with significant tornado potential, will also be in place, ”said Bill Bunting, head of forecast operations at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) .

“It’s a very strong system that we’ve been tracking from the potential for severe storms as it grows and moves northeast, from the plains to the Ohio Valley,” Holmes said. at CNN.

Timing out the storms

This next system will introduce the threat of thunderstorms as early as Tuesday evening for much of Kansas, Oklahoma and northeast and central Texas.

The highest risk, however, will likely be overnight Tuesday and continue until Wednesday morning. An isolated tornado will be possible, but the main risks will be heavy hail and damaging winds.

There will also be a distinct risk for a few strong storms across the south during the day Tuesday, including parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia.

“Our real focus day right now is Wednesday. We could see a pretty widespread severe weather threat and potentially high end severe thunderstorms,” Bunting said.

Wednesday to Wednesday evening is expected to be the busiest day in terms of severe thunderstorms this week. According to the SPC, there is currently an “increased risk” of severe weather events in eight southern states. An “Increased Risk” is a level 3 out of 5 in terms of potential severity. This includes states like Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama.

The SPC said “increased risk” means “many severe storms are possible” and that all threats are possible in Wednesday’s setup – tornadoes, large hail at least the size of a golf ball and intense winds of at least 58 mph.

A series of early morning showers and potentially thunderstorms are currently forecast to sweep through parts of the Gulf Coast states, but the main event will take place before the cold front from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Near this cold front are the most intense and tornadic storms.

There could be “potentially a few waves of severe weather, starting in the morning, then in the middle of the day, then later in the evening with the arrival of the cold front,” Holmes said when reviewing the centre’s forecast of Alabama, a region currently in this “Enhanced Risk” region.

The potential for multiple rains can lead to flooding in some places. Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected with some places receiving more than 3 to 4 inches.

By Thursday, the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms will shift to the east coast of the United States. The area from northern Florida to southern Virginia is currently being monitored by the CPS for this risk, but it is too early to know the exact timing and details of the threat.

Severe storms typical of the south

Severe thunderstorms are not unusual in this part of the country and at this time of year. Historically, strong tornadoes in mid-March have been most common in northern Mississippi and Alabama, closely matching the storms forecast for this week.

“The details will play a big role in how serious the situation is and where the storms occur. I think what’s important is knowing that this is a typical severe weather pattern early in the season, in the Southeastern United States, in the sense that they will continue afterwards. nightfall, ”Bunting said.

“A dangerous aspect of tornadoes in the south is that they can occur in the middle of the night when people are sleeping unlike storms in Tornado Alley which generally become less severe after sunset,” CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said. .

“It’s really important to heed the warning and not to wait for visual confirmation (of the storm),” Bunting said. “Now is the time for people to have a plan for several ways to receive the warnings.”