US assesses North Korea may prepare for first weapons test since Biden took office



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U.S. officials are on high alert as the United States and South Korea conduct simulated small-scale military exercises and U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin are in Asia for meetings with their Japanese and South Korean counterparts.

Any test or provocation would not come as a surprise, regional experts said.

“North Korea has traditionally taken some sort of strongly provocative action at the start of the new US and South Korean administrations,” said Bruce Klingner, senior researcher at the Heritage Foundation, who pointed to the tests conducted in 2017 shortly thereafter. that former President Donald Trump took office, and in 2009, to mark the arrival of former President Barack Obama to the White House. “The idea was to ‘train them like a dog’, a North Korean defector told me,” Klingner said, to get concessions from the two most powerful countries.

“So history would have indicated that they would also be doing something in the first few months of a Biden administration,” he said. “If they make a provocation, that’s perfectly predictable.”

On Monday, North Korean leader’s sister Kim Yo Jong warned the Biden government against “causing a stench at its first step” on Monday, hours after the White House said it had not received a response to the overtures diplomatic she had made. in Pyongyang.
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White House press secretary Jen Psaki declined to respond to this comment on Tuesday. “We have no direct comment or response to comments from North Korea,” Psaki told reporters during a briefing aboard Air Force One, en route to Philadelphia with the president. She referred to the meetings between Blinken, Austin and their counterparts, where “certainly the security of the region will be a subject of discussion.”

Later this week, Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will also travel to Alaska to meet with their Chinese counterparts, which Psaki says will also include a discussion of “security in the region.”

Blinken and Austin reaffirmed their commitment to the “complete denuclearization of North Korea” in Japan on Tuesday and to creating opportunities for further cooperation between the United States, Japan and South Korea, according to a statement. from the US State Department.

They will hold meetings in South Korea on Wednesday local time.

A senior US official has said North Korea may decide to take a test after seeing what comes out of the Blinken and Austin meetings in Asia.

General warns of North Korea’s ‘alarming success’

A senior US general issued a public warning on the threat posed by North Korea on Tuesday

“Kim Jong Un’s regime has achieved alarming success in its quest to demonstrate its ability to threaten the American homeland with nuclear ICBMs, believing that these weapons are necessary to deter US military action and ensure the survival of its regime.” said General Glen Van Herck, chief of the northern command of the United States and responsible for the defense of the continental United States, told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday.

The possibility of a test in the next few days has led officials in the Biden administration from several agencies to discuss how they would respond publicly if that happened, officials said.

Officials would not be specific on what the latest intelligence shows, but a likely scenario, based on images and other intelligence, is that there could be a missile or rocket engine test. The last known North Korean weapons test was carried out in March 2020.

In recent days, U.S. intelligence has focused on vehicle activity at a site near Sanum-dong, outside Pyongyang, where ballistic missiles and space launchers have reportedly been built in the past. .

According to analysis of new satellite images released by 38 North, a leading North Korean watchdog, there was also activity at the North Korean nuclear facility in Yongbyon.

Officials tell CNN that if North Korea conducts a test while the two secretaries are in Asia, it would send a specific message to Biden that Kim wants to ensure he is seen as a key player in the region. However, a test wouldn’t come as a shock, with many analysts surprised that Kim had refrained from doing one for so long.

An American response would vary depending on what exactly Pyongyang tested.

If North Korea does a nuclear test or an ICBM test, especially an ICBM test, they marched in October 2020 which has been dubbed the “Monster ICBM”, that would be “disturbing, that would be very provocative”, Klingner said.

“It would be a violation of UN resolutions on a large scale; it would require a strong administrative response from Biden; and it would reduce diplomatic reach. When they do something provocative, it puts a three to six month break on the diplomacy because no one wants to be seen rewarding this kind of behavior, ”he continued.

If Pyongyang is testing a missile, the questions that will determine the United States’ response will be the range of the missile, the distance traveled and whether it flew over Japanese territory, Klingner said. Rocket engine testing is “not much of a violation, but not helpful,” he said.

Trump ignored missile launches in the latter part of his presidency

Trump ignored North Korea’s record missile launches in 2019, arguing that they had not violated Kim Jong Un’s pledge not to launch nuclear tests or ICBMs – although the North Korean leader has announced that he no longer needs to conduct these tests because the programs were complete and UN resolutions demand that Pyongyang not make any launches.

How Biden's foreign policy approach builds on Trump's

The Biden administration is still carrying out a review of the Trump administration’s policy in North Korea, which could be completed “in the coming weeks,” according to a senior State Department official.

While Biden is not likely to write “love letters” to Kim Jong Un like his predecessor did, Biden’s administration has yet to offer a clear break from the previous administration in its terms. stated objectives for his approach to the Kingdom of the Hermit. Repeatedly, in testimonies, statements or briefings, US officials have said their goal is “the complete denuclearization of North Korea.”

Military and intelligence officials have long said they believe North Korea has continued research and development of nuclear missiles and warheads throughout the Trump administration despite public rhetoric from administrations Trump and now Biden on denuclearization.

“North Korea’s continued pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs poses an extraordinary threat to the United States and our allies and partners in the region,” said David Helvey, deputy secretary for justice. Interim Defense at Indo-Pacific Affairs. Services Committee last week.

This story was updated with additional details on Tuesday.

CNN’s Jennifer Hansler, Nicole Gaouette and Kylie Atwood contributed to this report.

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