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"Alita: Battle Angel" exceeded expectations with her national box office debut for $ 27 million. But Fox's fantastic cyberpunk adventure still has a long way to go before he can claim victory. When it comes to achieving profitability, the spectacular CGI may never arrive at that particular destination.
With a production budget of $ 170 million (Fox points out that tax incentives have reduced costs that were previously $ 200 million) and tens of millions of dollars in marketing and distribution costs, competing studios estimate "Alita: Battle Angel" 500 million dollars globally to come out of the red. Insiders at Fox say the breakeven is closer to $ 350 million. It is too early to cancel the movie completely. Although the film has already grossed $ 130 million worldwide, Alita is unlikely to reach the box office peaks.
"When you fight for the science fiction barriers, it's not cheap," said Paul Dergarabedian, a box-office analyst at Comscore. "It is harder to convince the North American public of these films" when there are no known suites or properties.
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As the weekend approached, independent monitoring services suggested that Alita: Battle Angel would earn $ 22 million over the weekend and $ 30 million over the first five days of its publication. Insiders at Fox attribute the better-than-expected beginning of the film in North America due to the release date of the president The studio had originally planned to open the film during last year's Christmas period, but has instead chose to wait for a less busy time in multiplexes. It was a wise choice, knowing that 'Alita: Battle Angel' could have got lost in the reshuffle while moviegoers rallied for 'Aquaman', 'Mary Poppins Returns' and 'Bumblebee' during the holiday season busy. But if "Alita" now has some leeway in the United States, it faces an even tougher market abroad.
It is yet to debut in China and Japan, two markets that should yield huge returns. Before Robert Rodriguez's adaptation can succeed in these territories, it will have to overcome an extremely crowded market. Unlike North America, where ticket sales have dropped nearly 20% over last year and where success has not yet been achieved, the box office in Asia is booming. The Chinese sci-fi epic "The Wandering Earth" generated $ 606 million, and the Chinese New Year also saw the resonance of local titles like "Crazy Alien" and "Pegasus". Recent Hollywood movies such as "Venom" and "Aquaman" have come at a time when foreign theaters were not as flourishing.
While producer James Cameron was hoping that his passion project would become a worldwide success, "Alita: Battle Angel" is now relying on its attractiveness abroad to generate profits. Inspired by Yukito Kishiro's popular manga novel, it's not surprising that Rosa Salazar's cyborg heroine has generated more business abroad, with ticket sales totaling more than $ 94 million. nowadays. The leaders of the rival studios predict that Alita: Battle Angel could end up at the national box office with a budget between 80 and 100 million dollars. In turn, China and Japan will be numerous to cover any potential land loss.
"International markets have saved the day for many movies," said Dergarabedian. "This could be another example where the North American box office is secondary."
Fox has presented "Alita" as a film event in the same vein as Cameron's "Avatar", which offers digital wonders that demand to be seen on the big screen. This is a strategy that seems to work with the public and benefits from selling 3D tickets, which are more expensive than average screens. "Alita: Battle Angel" represents more than 15% of national revenue. Critics have not been thrilled by the fantastic adventure of a cyborg trying to unravel its mysterious past, but moviegoers seem more receptive and rewarded with an A-CinemaScore.
If "Alita: Battle Angel" fails to connect the international audience, this could indicate that the situation will end badly for Fox before the studio merged his movie studio with Disney in the coming weeks. "Alita" comes right after Fox's last record, "The Kid Who Would Be King", which went wrong during his debut in January. The $ 60 million film has only reported $ 23 million worldwide and is likely to lose about $ 50 million.
It's not just bad news for Fox. The studio scored with "Bohemian Rhapsody," Queen's biopic that overcame lukewarm criticism to become a commercial success that brought in more than $ 853 million worldwide and five Oscar nominations.
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